Melbourne could experience its warmest day since January 2023 on Monday, as large swathes of the country brace for a hot few days.
Miriam Bradbury, a senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, said if Melbourne hit 40C as forecast, it would be the warmest Melbourne day since January last year and the warmest December day since 2019.
As low to severe heatwave conditions swept parts of the country, another senior meteorologist, Dean Narramore, said temperatures could be anywhere from 8C to 16C above average over “pretty much all” of central and eastern Australia until Tuesday.
A hot, dry, windy day was forecast on Monday for Melbourne, but a cool change was expected to come through by late afternoon or early evening, making Tuesday morning “much more bearable”, Bradbury said.
Heat currently sitting over Western Australia making its way east was expected to hit Adelaide on Sunday, which had a forecast top of 40C. The warm temperatures would then reach Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania over the weekend and into Monday, she said.
Large parts of inland NSW were facing temperatures in the high 40s, with places such as Wilcannia and Ivanhoe forecast to reach 47C on Monday. Narramore said these were “definitely” the hottest temperatures since the Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20, nearly five years ago.
“With the temperatures getting into the high 40s during the day, they probably won’t even drop below 30C much overnight,” he said, with health concerns for those without air conditioning or fans to keep cool.
The Tasmanian Fire Service suspended fire permits in southern parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday morning, amid hot, windy and dry conditions.
In Melbourne and Adelaide the hot weather was unlikely to hang around long enough to trigger heatwave conditions, Bradbury said, which is when the maximum and minimum temperatures are unusually hot over three days.
But the spike in heat was expected to bring elevated fire danger to the south-east on Monday, across much of eastern South Australia and parts of Victoria, including Melbourne.
“Monday could be a dangerous day fire weather-wise, because we could see some dry thunderstorms with that as well, which could lead to fires igniting,” Narramore said.
Parts of Sydney closer to the coast would probably escape the worst of it, Bradbury said. Temperatures of 28C on Sunday and 29C on Monday were expected. “It will be hotter the further west you go,” she said.
The electricity market operator, Aemo, issued a statement last week saying it had already made preparations for above-average temperatures.
The Aemo executive general manager of operations, Michael Gatt, said there had been months of extensive preparation to support the reliability of Australia’s power systems over the summer period.
“The advice is temperatures will be similar to last summer for most of Australia, with potential for above average rainfall and flooding in some states,” Gatt said. “However, risks remain and Aemo will continue to monitor the situation and take the necessary actions if required.”
Bradbury said the conditions were a reminder to everyone that heat could be dangerous. “We do need to take precautions to keep ourselves cool and hydrate.”
