HONG KONG — Hong Kong’s election season officially begins Sunday, and despite a near-two month delay in proceedings because of a COVID-19 crisis, it’s still wildly unclear who actually wants the city’s top job.
That’s about to change. Contenders now have two weeks to declare their candidacy and secure at least 188 votes from the committee of 1,500 largely pro-Beijing electors — or 0.02% of the population — who’ll decide the financial hub’s next leader on May 8.
Chief Executive Carrie Lam invoked emergency powers in February to postpone the election planned for March 27, amid an omicron outbreak that resulted in Hong Kong logging the highest virus death rate per capita in a developed country, because of its under-vaccinated elderly.
Before that, Lam had been tipped as the race front-runner with local media calling her a “comeback queen.” But at a virus briefing last week she sparked rumors she wouldn’t seek another five-year term. “If the next government needs my opinion,” she said, “I will be happy to provide.”
The next Chief Executive’s term begins on July 1: the halfway point of Hong Kong’s 50-year transition from British to Chinese rule, which local officials hope President Xi Jinping will visit the city to mark. As the pandemic strains Hong Kong’s “one country two systems” set-up, pitting loyalty to the mainland’s virus strategy against global business needs, the next leader faces a difficult balancing act.
Here are the people to watch:
—The Safe Choice
Financial Secretary Paul Chan, 67, hasn’t been overly involved in pandemic-related work, meaning he isn’t tainted by the city’s recent COVID-19 failures. He’s also been networking more with mainland officials in recent months, the South China Morning Post reported.
There are other signs he might run. A week before Lam’s annual policy address last October, Chan released his own manifesto, the Business Environment report, which outlined how the city could better leverage integration with the mainland.
He’s identified Xi’s flagship common prosperity drive as critical to Hong Kong’s economic future, and Chan’s decision to investigate pro-democracy tycoon Jimmy Lai’s Next Digital Ltd. after it shut smacked of “political grandstanding,” activist investor David Webb wrote.
Chan, who grew up in a squatter settlement and public housing, was ushered into government by Lam’s predecessor, Leung Chun-ying, and is said to be liked by Beijing. It’s unclear if his lack of a national security background — a priority for the city — might rule him out.
—The Staunch Supporter
Career cop John Lee, 64, proved he had Beijing’s backing when he was named Hong Kong’s No. 2 top official in a June Cabinet reshuffle. A staunch supporter of the extradition bill that sparked the 2019 unrest and defender of the police, Lee has been instrumental in enforcing the security law and led the shutdown of Lai’s Apple Daily newspaper.
In the past, the chief secretary post has been a springboard to higher office, with two of the city’s four leaders holding that position. Choosing Lee would be the clearest sign yet Beijing is seeking to shepherd the city in the direction of a quasi-police state, said one Western diplomat based in Hong Kong.
Any official who declares their candidacy, apart from the incumbent, must immediately resign, potentially making a race between Lee and Chan untenable as two key government posts would be vacated.
—The Second Timer
Leung, 67, flirted with the idea of resuming the top job in March, saying he’d “do anything to serve Hong Kong well and to serve the country.” He’s been at times critical of Lam’s government on his verified Facebook page, in August questioning why a fund that paid for protesters’ legal fees was allowed to exist.
The former businessman stepped down after his first term, which was defined by the 2014 Umbrella Movement that shut down the city’s central thoroughfare for months — a precursor to the 2019 protest movement. The South China Morning Post reported Saturday that Leung’s preparations to run were “under way,” citing a person familiar with his camp.
—The Case for Carrie
For two years, Lam kept COVID-19 largely at bay by imposing some of the world’s strictest quarantine policies to the chagrin of business as she faithfully followed China’s strategy.
But her failure to get the city’s elderly vaccinated has led to 7,000 COVID-19 deaths — more than mainland China has recorded for its 1.4 billion population. Officials are fired for smaller flare-ups across the border, so the fact Lam, 64, remains could be a sign of Beijing’s backing.
During her term, she helped China impose a long-coveted national security law. That prompted the U.S. to sanction her for undermining democracy, cutting her off from banking services and meaning she has to be paid in cash. That kind of loyalty could be rewarded, especially as omicron now tests the mainland’s own defenses.
—The Mainlander
Hong Kong has increasingly relied on the mainland for pandemic support, causing some to wonder if a mainland candidate trusted by the Communist Party could be plucked from across the border.
It’s unlikely Beijing could legally appoint a mainland candidate without re-writing the rules of the election. Under the current chief executive guidelines, an eligible nominee must be a Hong Kong permanent resident and have resided in the city for a continuous period of at least 20 years.
The candidate would also need to speak fluent Cantonese, the city’s local language, to communicate with locals — although this isn’t official criterion.
—One Man Race?
Political insiders have speculated that Beijing wants a Macau-style one-person race, to ensure total control over the vote, with Ronny Tong, a member of Lam’s de facto Cabinet telling the SCMP on Saturday that he expected this.
But experts say the illusion of a democratic exercise is crucial to Beijing’s claim the city is semi-autonomous. “Beijing still wants the appearance of a competitive race,” said Alfred Wu, an associate professor specializing in Hong Kong at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. “If you only have one candidate it won’t look good.”
Regardless of how many names are on the ballot, China will have the final say even more this time around, after revamping the voting committee to ensure one-third of seats are handpicked by pro-Beijing groups.
