NBA fans knew they’d be getting a 7ft, generational unicorn this season. Few had any idea they’d actually be getting two.
Just one other rookie in NBA history – the legendary Tim Duncan – has matched the statistical accolades currently being posted by San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama and Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren. Who is easily the most efficient of that threesome as a rookie? Holmgren. And he doesn’t just look like the best newbie in the NBA this year – but one of the most well-rounded in recent memory.
Many rookies, particularly physical freaks like Holmgren with his 7ft 6in wingspan, pristine touch and nimble feet below a 7ft 1in frame, get by primarily on raw athletic skills. But while jaw-dropping highlights are a regular occurrence for Holmgren, what really stands out is the maturity in this 21-year-old just over a dozen games into his career.
Holmgren’s shooting touch, for instance, has been as advertised and then some. He’s well over the elite 40% mark from three for the season, with a silly (and unsustainable, in fairness) 48.2% on catch-and-shoot triples – stretching the floor in a major way for teammates like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. You’d think a young buck with numbers like those would be letting fly at every opportunity, perhaps even irresponsibly from time to time.
Not Holmgren, whose court savvy already rivals many 10-year NBA vets. He can digest situations where his defender has closed out too aggressively and left him a step; he has the handles and dexterity to pump-fake and get all the way to the rim in these scenarios:
Holmgren’s efficiency within three feet of the basket (77%) is in the same neighborhood as lob-catching specialists like Rudy Gobert and Mitchell Robinson – remarkable considering how much more often Holmgren creates his own shot. He has an up-and-under move that looks as crisp as prime Kevin McHale:
Some believed Holmgren would be too skinny for the NBA, but he can muscle up when necessary, including against one of the strongest players in the league in Domantas Sabonis:
When defenses close off his route to the hoop, Holmgren has the counters in his bag.
He regularly looks like a seasoned guard out there, zinging passes out to shooters or finding teammates for easy layups after contorting the defense:
Every layer of Holmgren’s game belies his age. It’s just not normal for 21-year-olds of any size to have this sort of craft and recognition, particularly with fewer than 20 games at NBA speed under their belt.
On the play below, for instance, he’s wide open beyond the arc as the Golden State Warriors shade help over to Gilgeous-Alexander in the post – and again, Holmgren has been a knockdown shooter thus far. He’d be fully justified in simply waiting for a pass from Gilgeous-Alexander and firing away. Instead, with his defender’s head turned, he takes the initiative and creates an easy layup with a perfectly timed cut:
Somehow, though, Holmgren’s maturity may be even more apparent on the defensive end.
Many young bigs tend to be, shall we say, exuberant defenders. They want to be everywhere, challenge everything. But without the body control or spatial understanding that comes with years in the league, the results are often akin to a young animal learning to walk: Brief periods of competence accompanied by lots of awkwardness and falling. They over-foul, over-commit or otherwise leave themselves vulnerable to savvy offenses.
Holmgren has those same desires, with an activity level that’s off the charts. He’s contesting nearly 18 shots per game, the eighth-most of any NBA player this season. Surely he’s too eager, fouling like crazy or regularly leaping himself out of position? The exact opposite, in fact; Holmgren has skipped the fawn stage entirely. He’s only been whistled for 46 fouls all season, a stunningly low number considering he has 37 blocks and 283 shots contested. Forget about his age group; only a handful of guys in the entire league disrupt so many shots while fouling so little. Holmgren and Wembanyama join Gobert and Brook Lopez as the only players in the NBA with at least two blocks and under three fouls per game this season.
“Verticality” is an issue for many young big men, who struggle to stay coordinated while jumping and cross over from legal to illegal contests. Holmgren is already comfortable with his freakish wingspan, knowing his length alone will often do the job. His leaps are balanced, and he only extends an arm when he’s certain a clean swipe is available:
Over half the shots he contests are at the basket, where Holmgren has defended the third-most shots in the entire NBA – and is allowing a similarly stingy percentage as established defensive studs like Evan Mobley, Clint Capela and Myles Turner.
His recovery speed, both vertically and horizontally, is a sight to behold. Holmgren will fly into the picture to disrupt shots, or stick stride-for-stride with ball-handlers who are used to gaining separation on guys his size; his second jump is faster than many players’ first:
He challenges shots in transition. He challenges shots from the weak side. He challenges shots from his own man.
He challenges jumpers – again, with incredibly low foul totals:
Frankly, we’re already looking at one of the NBA’s premier shot disruptors regardless of age – and there’s data to prove it.
Per NBA.com data, Holmgren has held shooters to 40.3% as the primary shot defender. The players he’s defended, however, would have been expected to shoot 49.1% when faced with an average defender, an 8.8-point gap that easily leads the league among high-volume shot contesters (minimum 150 shots contested):
Chet Holmgren: -8.8% below expected
Al Horford: -7.5%
Isaiah Stewart: -7.0%
Herb Jones: -7.0%
Joel Embiid: -6.8%
Christian Wood: -6.8%
LeBron James: -6.7%
Rudy Gobert: -6.2%
Chris Paul: -6.2%
Kevon Looney: -6.1%
The presence of several consensus top-tier defensive players on that list is no coincidence (Mobley, Wembanyama, Jrue Holiday, Bam Adebayo and OG Anunoby are all within the top-20 as well). It may sound overly simplistic, but simply bothering shots is a wildly valuable skill.
Could Holmgren’s “redshirt” year with the Thunder last season, one forced by injury, be contributing to the impressive maturity? Certainly to a degree. A year around a professional organization is valuable even without game time, especially for someone with Holmgren’s reputation as a basketball obsessive. His time with the Team USA Select squad over the summer surely didn’t hurt, either.
At least to this eye, though, those experiences are additives rather than true catalysts. This is a player with a mentality well beyond his years, and with the physical gifts to back it up.
Holmgren is by no means a finished or perfect product. He doesn’t shy away from contact, but rebounding is and will remain an issue with such a slight frame – the Thunder are better on the glass when he’s on the bench, though not by a gigantic margin (it’s a teamwide weakness).
He turns the ball over a lot, a refreshing reminder that he is in fact human. It would be insane for any player so big and so young – and who dribbles so often – to not cough the rock up regularly.
But Holmgren isn’t even 20 games into his career. He’s still experimenting. That he can do so while still making a positive impact on a team that sits 11-5 and second in the Western Conference is no small feat.
And whether or not he takes home the rookie of the year award this season, Holmgren is clearly the real deal. Sit back and enjoy an unprecedented infusion of height and skill into your favorite league, NBA fans.
