Former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri's decision to suspend his political career has upended the Sunni scene in Lebanon as it prepares to hold parliamentary elections in May.
The confusion will be seized by Shiite Hezbollah, which will be eyeing the Sunni seats usually claimed by Hariri's Mustaqbal movement. The party is primed to achieve a major breakthrough in the Sunni seats, especially since the sect is now left without a central leadership - which was represented by Hariri and Mustaqbal - and lacks the necessary funding to wage a political battle across the country.
Experts believe that Hezbollah views the elections as the perfect opportunity to breach the Sunni scene with the least effort and cost than ever before. This will be imperative given that the party is unlikely to reap a parliamentary majority in wake of the October 17, 2019 revolution and successive economic and social crises in Lebanon.
Electoral expert Kamal Feghali expects Hezbollah to win at least ten Sunni seats in the elections by supporting its allies in districts that were usually won by the Mustaqbal.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said Hezbollah is set to gain a Sunni seat in the northern Akkar region and one or two in the predominantly Sunni northern city of Tripoli, should the party succeed in fielding an electoral list that includes its current allies, Faisal Karami and Jihad al-Samad.
Six Sunni lawmakers, of the Consultative Gathering, are currently affiliated with Hezbollah: Adnan al-Traboulsi of the Projects Association - Beirut, Karami in Tripoli, al-Samad in al-Dinnieh, Abdul Rahim Murad in the western Bekaa, Ousama Saad in Sidon and Walid Sukkarieh in the northern Bekaa.
Hezbollah may need to exert greater political efforts and spend greater funds to reap additional seats in the first and second electoral districts in the North (Akkar and Tripoli). The battle will be easier elsewhere, especially in Beirut, said Feghali.
"The battle will be easiest in Beirut because of the lack of strong competitor on the Sunni scene," he noted.
Should the Projects Association, which is allied to Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, form a united list, then the party's Shiite supporters will vote for their Sunni candidates instead of the Free Patriotic Movement's Evangelical candidate or MP Talal Arslan's Druze candidate.
Should such a scenario play out, Hezbollah will gain at least one Sunni seat in Beirut.
In the eastern Baalbek - al-Hermel district, Hezbollah will claim the seat occupied by Mustaqbal's Bakr al-Hujeiri without even waging an electoral battle, predicted Feghali.
Hezbollah's strong presence in the upcoming elections is not a sign that the Sunnis will be happy and accepting of the party's breach of their environment, but this is the political reality that has been imposed on the Lebanese people.
Politician Khaldoun al-Sharif explained that Hezbollah's expanded political and electoral reach is part of the "internal imbalance in Lebanon".
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Sunni withdrawal from political life will be greatly exploited by Hezbollah, and by extension, Iran, the party's main backer.
