It has been an eventful offseason off the field for Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon, who had an arrest warrant issued for aggravated menacing on Feb. 2, only to have the charges dropped and then later reinstated. The process is still ongoing, but it immediately introduces some uncertainty into the veteran’s outlook for 2023, as the NFL could elect to weigh in with disciplinary action at any point, regardless of how the legal process plays out. Or, conversely, they could decide to wait until after the season and/or impose no penalties at all.
While the possibility of a suspension hangs over Mixon, it’s by no means the only issue fantasy owners should consider heading into this season. Age and mileage are also becoming concerns. Mixon turns 27 in July, and he is entering his seventh year in the league. His durability to this point has been admirable, appearing in at least 14 games five times, and posting 270 or more touches in four of those campaigns, but it may be catching up with him.
To that end, Mixon is coming off his least effective full season since his rookie year, collecting 814 yards and seven touchdowns on 210 carries (3.9 YPC). If you omit 2020, when injuries limited him to six games, that’s well below his per-season averages of 269 carries, 1,170 yards (4.4 YPC), and 8.7 TDs from his previous three campaigns.
On the positive side, Cincinnati dramatically upgraded the offensive line this spring with the signing of Orlando Brown at left tackle, which moved Jonah Williams to the right tackle spot.
Mixon became a more frequent option for QB Joe Burrow, who targeted the veteran back 75 times last year, which was fourth-most on the team, resulting in a career-high 60 receptions, 441 yards, and a pair of touchdowns. Those opportunities in space are a good way to get the ball in Mixon’s hands while mitigating the pounding backs take on straight runs. Any pathway to exceeding expectations in 2023 likely involves continued high involvement in the passing game, and that’s dubious if Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t again miss multiple games.
Another factor potentially working in Mixon’s favor is a lack of options, at least proven ones. With last year’s RB2 Samaje Perine joining the Denver Broncos, the depth chart features Day 3 draft picks like Chris Evans (2021), Trayveon Williams (2019), and rookie Chase Brown. Clearly, the Bengals hope one of them will emerge to assume the role Perine filled so ably last year, but no one on that list looks like an immediate challenger for Mixon’s spot as starter.
Fantasy football outlook
Head coach Zac Taylor swears Mixon’s future is in Cincinnati, and they’ve made no clear moves to suggest that isn’t the case. Until and unless that changes, whether by player acquisition or league discipline, Mixon appears aligned to serve as the primary back in Cincinnati once again, which gives him viable midrange or low-end RB2 value. Brown is the ADP consensus handcuff and is, at least at this point, a must-draft insurance policy.
