“When power is fought over and grabbed, that clearly signals the significant risk of revolutionary change with all its attendant disorder"
(Picture: Getty Images for TechCrunch)An American hedge fund boss made predictions that there is a 30 per cent chance that a civil war could occur in the United States.
But the only thing that could probably prevent that from happening is the Constitution.
Ray Dalio, an American billionaire investor and founder of the world’s largest hedge fund firm Bridgewater Associates, expressed these opinions in his new book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail.
According to excerpts of the book discussed by the Daily Mail, Dalio thinks that there is a significantly “high risk” that the nation could have a civil war in a decade.
This is due to the government rules being “ignored” as well as the increasing amount of “polarisation” in the country.
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He said that once a formal judgement is made for “close elections”, and the “losers” respect the outcomes, it becomes apparent “that the order is respected.”
“When power is fought over and grabbed, that clearly signals the significant risk of revolutionary change with all its attendant disorder,” Dalio wrote.
He provided statistical proof of his claims of polarisation detailing the widening gap between the two political parties in the country.
In a 2019 Pew Research study, 79 per cent of Democrats and 83 per cent of Republicans expressed “cold” or “very cold” feelings for members of the opposite party.
A study such as this shows the intense split between two major political parties as well the emotions interwoven between the disapproval of one another.
Dalio further suggests six stages of the internal order/ disorder cycle, which ends with a civil war, claiming that the nation is in the fifth stage.
The fifth stage is negative monetary conditions and massive conflict.
Despite this, Dalio seemed to decrease the need for dread by mentioning the Constitution as the “most widely admired internal order.”
“This makes it less likely that it will be abandoned, but more traumatic if it is.”
Dalio serves as Bridgewater’s chairman and co-chief investment officer after launching the firm over 40 years ago in his two-bedroom apartment in New York City.
The hedge fund has also become one of the largest globally, managing around $160bn in assets.
Dalio’s book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail, was released on November 30.
