On the flight from Chicago to London for Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams carried the hopes of an entire fanbase – not to mention the burden of a 75-year quarterback curse unparalleled in pro football history.
Evidently, Williams left any baggage on the plane. In a 35-16 domination of the Jaguars, the first overall pick in the 2024 draft completed 23 of 29 passes for 226 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 124.4, a Completion Rate Over Expected of +12.5% (only Lamar Jackson was better on Sunday at +14.1%), and a Passing EPA of +14.6 (behind only Jared Goff and Jordan Love).
Not bad for a rookie starting his sixth NFL game with a franchise that has systematically destroyed quarterbacks. The last time the Bears had what you could call a legitimate franchise quarterback was right after the second world war, when Sid Luckman was finishing up his Hall of Fame career. Since then, it’s been a history of near-misses, might-have-beens, and massive whiffs at the most important position in football – perhaps the most consequential position in any sport.
This is the franchise that lost a coin flip for the fourth overall pick in the 1944 draft with the Detroit Lions, who used that pick on Otto Graham, who never played for the Lions, but succeeded at a Hall of Fame level with the Cleveland Browns. There was more: the third overall pick in the 1948 draft, Bobby Layne, was quickly traded to the Bears. But Layne refused to return to the team after a year playing behind Luckman and Johnny Lujack. Layne later became a Hall of Fame quarterback with the Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bears also selected George Blanda in the 12th round of the 1949 draft, but owner and head coach George Halas insisted that Blanda was more of a kicker than a quarterback. Blanda responded by defecting to the American Football League in 1960 after a one-year retirement, and, yes, put together his own Hall of Fame career together there.
And in 1979, Bears scout Bill Tobin had a first-round grade on a certain Notre Dame star, but general manager Jim Finks was happy with mediocre quarterback Bob Avellini. The Notre Dame quarterback? Joe Montana.
Since the beginning of the AFL-NFL common draft in 1967, the Bears have spent first-round picks on seven quarterbacks – Jim McMahon in 1982, Jim Harbaugh in 1987, Cade McNown in 1999, Rex Grossman in 2003, Mitch Trubisky in 2017, Justin Fields in 2021 and Williams in 2024.
None of those first six picks really panned out besides McMahon, who was more of a punky accessory to the Chicago teams of the mid-1980s that sported some of the best defenses pro football has ever seen.
This is how you travel time since your inception as one of the NFL’s original teams in 1920 without a quarterback throwing for 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns in a single season. Given the advancements made to the passing game, that’s an astonishing drought. And a curse of the franchise’s own making.
Through the first four weeks of Williams’ NFL career, it appeared that the curse might actually be a thing. Williams completed just 87 of 141 passes (61.7%) for 786 yards (5.6 yards per attempt), three touchdowns, four interceptions, a passer rating of 72.0 (second-worst in the league among qualifying quarterbacks), and 16 sacks behind a leaky offensive line.
But over the last two games, against the Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars (admittedly, two bad defenses), the light has switched on. Over those games, Williams completed 43 of 58 passes (74.1%) for 530 yards (9.1 yards per attempt), six touchdowns, one interception, and a league-best passer rating of 129.2.
When grading a quarterback’s progress, whether it comes against great defenses or not, you’re looking for the universal qualities that comprise great play at the position. And especially against the Jaguars in London, Williams proved to have those universal qualities in an intercontinental sense.
Two of Williams’s four touchdown passes against the Jaguars went to veteran receiver Keenan Allen, and the others went to tight end Cole Kmet, who also served as Chicago’s emergency long-snapper in the game. The first TD pass to Kmet came out of a nifty design. Allen went in orbit motion, and Williams’ double-fake flat route passes set Jacksonville’s defense on edge enough for Kmet to be wide open down the middle of the field.
Orbit motion, double fake flat routes, and hit a wide-open Cole Kmet upfield because Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd has become your huckleberry. pic.twitter.com/FoEq9WXd3B
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 14, 2024
Kmet’s second touchdown was facilitated by Williams looking the safety off at the back of the end zone to an area the quarterback wanted the safety to go. There are veteran quarterbacks who don’t know how to do this.
You want your quarterback to put the conflict defender on a string. Caleb Williams did that to Jaguars safety Antonio Johnson on Cole Kmet's second TD. Look off to DJ Moore as the backside iso, and use that delay to hit Kmet out of trips. Williams has the Easy Button. pic.twitter.com/6tJQyRPGs9
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 14, 2024
The first touchdown pass to Allen was a dart into a tight window in which Williams put the ball on Allen’s right shoulder – where only Allen could catch it. Now, Williams was showing veteran command.
Caleb Williams' first touchdown pass to Keenan Allen. Scheme is great and all, but there are times when you just need your quarterback to make a tight-window timing throw with authority. No problem here. pic.twitter.com/UI9JhfYWjD
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 14, 2024
Williams’ second touchdown to Allen, at the start of the fourth quarter, may have been the best throw of the quarterback’s young career. He had to steer the ball over the outstretched hands of two Jacksonville defenders, and the cornerback who was covering Allen tightly, into a small window before Allen went out of bounds. It was no problem.
This is as ridiculous a throw as you will see -- Caleb Williams' second touchdown pass to Keenan Allen. Over the outstretched hands of the DT and LB, over the CB in tight coverage, and into Allen's hands with less than a yard of end zone left. Just preposterous. pic.twitter.com/9sevy4jqVX
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 14, 2024
Williams also ran four times for 56 yards, but these were not random scrambles from an overwhelmed rookie – like everything else, there was a clear plan in place.
Caleb Williams' scrambles aren't senseless pocket bails -- he's turning them into calculated decisions. Downfield isn't what you like, you're getting pressure, and it's time to array your targets as eye candy for the run. pic.twitter.com/PDzt1q7nVQ
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 14, 2024
Postgame, Williams said that he was “pissed off” with himself after his one negative play – an interception on a pass intended for DJ Moore in the first half. Perhaps that was the spark he needed.
This was really Caleb Williams' only negative play against the Jaguars. Hung the ball up and threw late on what should have been an easy completion to DJ Moore. Other than that, Williams had it on lock with multiple concepts and progressions. pic.twitter.com/Ulk56m7LrJ
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 14, 2024
“That’s a pass that I don’t miss, that you don’t want to miss, and do something like that,” Williams said. “And so yeah, I was a bit pissed off after that, and I think [to] reset myself was important. But still having in the back of my mind, like you know, can’t have that happen again, and let’s go out here and go score.”
From then on, that’s pretty much all Williams did.
The question now, of course, is whether Williams can sustain his run of success. The ramp-up did take a few games. And the Bears’ schedule is about to get a lot tougher. Chicago’s NFC North, is the first division since the NFL’s merger with the American Football League in 1970 to have every team with at least four wins through a season’s first six games. And per FTN analyst Aaron Schatz, the Bears had the second-easiest slate to date based on opponent-adjusted efficiency, and no team has a more imposing go the rest of the way.
Williams will undoubtedly experience more adversity – because no young quarterback can avoid it entirely. But based on the show so far, the Bears may finally, mercifully, have hit on the solution they’ve searched for in vain longer than any other pro football franchise.
