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Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–44.8. In my previous US politics article last Monday, Harris led Trump by 47.1–44.6.

Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump is now 78 and Harris will be 60.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr withdrew from the presidential contest in swing states on Friday US time and endorsed Trump. Silver said Kennedy initially had 10–11% support in a three-way matchup with Trump and Biden, but this had faded to about 8% at Biden’s withdrawal.

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