Hamas militants have returned to northern Gaza, where they are mobilising against Israeli forces and rebuilding a system of governance, aid officials, Gaza residents, analysts and Israeli officials say.
Elsewhere in Gaza, Hamas administrators and police maintain firm control of the south, where much of the population is concentrated, though civil order is breaking down in central regions.
The apparent resurgence of Hamas in areas seized and cleared by Israeli troops during the nearly four-month offensive underlines the difficulties Benjamin Netanyahu faces in meeting his pledge to “crush” the militant group.
Eyal Hulata, who until January 2023 was the head of Israel’s national security council, said: “We are hearing more, unfortunately, of the recovery of [an] insurgency in both central and northern Gaza … We’re hearing more and more that Hamas are doing policing in northern Gaza and governing trade, and that is a very bad outcome.”
Michael Milstein of the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv-based thinktank, said Hamas had re-established control in parts of Gaza that the Israel Defense Forces seized after bloody fighting last year.
This included much of the ruined northern zone, including Shaati camp, the refugee camps of Jabaliya, Shejaiya, and Gaza City.
Milstein said: “Hamas control these areas. There is no chaos or vacuum because it is the workers of Gaza municipality or civil rescue defence forces, who are effectively part of Hamas, who are enforcing public order. Hamas still exists. Hamas has survived.
“The IDF version is that in the northern part of Gaza the basic military structure of Hamas was broken … That only works with a conventional army but not for a flexible guerrilla operation like Hamas. We are already seeing individuals as snipers, setting booby traps and so on.”
Hamas comprises a political wing and military forces, with an extensive network of charities and civil associations too. The militant movement won Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006 and seized full military control of Gaza in 2007 after a power struggle. Hamas has since governed the territory, raising taxes and administrating local services. Many government officials at all levels in Gaza before the war were members of Hamas or sympathetic towards the organisation.
“You can’t say if they have come back or never went away, but either way they are there now,” said an IDF officer, whose unit recently fought Hamas militants in Shaati camp, the scene of fierce combat in November.
International aid officials based in southern Gaza, where recent fighting has been concentrated and where more than a million people displaced from elsewhere in the territory have sought refuge, reported that there was now less of a visible presence of Hamas on the streets. They said this was unsurprising given Israeli airstrikes.
One senior humanitarian official told the Guardian: “The technocrats continue to be about but the QB [Qassam brigades, Hamas’s military wing] you don’t see. You still see Hamas police in different areas who have a grip to some extent on law and order in some places including in the north.”
Aid agencies trying to distribute food, fuel and other essentials to the displaced in southern Gaza continue to deal with Hamas-appointed officials. Hamas still provides police escorts for convoys, though the group’s grip on power appears to be weaker than before the war.
“There is a generalised breakdown of law and order. Criminality overall is increasing which is very concerning as civilian needs become ever more desperate” said William Schomburg, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Gaza.
Aid officials also reported numerous incidents of aid trucks being looted and attacked, mainly in the central part of Gaza, which is controlled neither by Hamas nor Israeli forces.
One said: “Many aid convoys are receiving armed escorts. It is unclear if these are Hamas police, who are still present and visible, or private security companies. There is a fine line between where one starts and the other stops.”
A senior UN official described Rafah, the southernmost town in Gaza, as “the last remaining place with any real civil order” due to the presence of local Hamas police.
Several attacks on convoys have been blamed on powerful and well-armed families in central Gaza, suggesting these longstanding power brokers are regaining confidence and capabilities after many years of being suppressed by Hamas.
Israeli officials claim their forces have killed about 9,000 of the 30,000 fighters that Hamas were estimated to be able to mobilise before the war, which was triggered by a bloody attack launched by the militant organisation into southern Israel in October. Those killed include around 1,000 elite fighters from the Nukhba brigades, though between 3,000 and 4,000 remain active, Israeli intelligence officials believe.
About 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, were killed in Operation al-Aqsa Flood, as Hamas called the attacks, and 240 taken hostage. More than 25,000 people have been killed in Gaza since, mostly women and children, according to Palestinian health officials. Many thousands more are thought to be buried in rubble. Swathes of Gaza have been destroyed and 1.9 million of its 2.3 million population displaced.
Matt Levitt, an expert in Hamas at the Washington Institute, said the group had been severely degraded as a fighting force.
“My sense is that a very significant proportion of the Hamas fighting force has been killed, including the leadership that has been killed,” he said. “Even if they are back in the north, they are fighting as terrorist cells, at best insurgent cells, not companies or battalions.”
Informed sources close to Hamas say there are deep divisions in the organisation, including fierce rivalries among the political leadership in exile and a split between those in Gaza and those outside the territory.
HA Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at London’s Royal United Services Institute thinktank, said such factionalism was inevitable.
“The political leadership outside are going to be more and more distant,” he said. “At some point their relevance will be questioned … and historically splits are very common when groups are in this situation.”
The splits could hinder negotiations for a new ceasefire, which have accelerated after David Barnea, the director of Israel’s overseas intelligence service, the Mossad, flew to Qatar for talks.
The Israeli offensive in Gaza could go on for months at its current intensity and hostilities may continue for years, military officials, analysts and some politicians in Israel believe.
Hellyer said Gaza could become an anarchic and desperate “no man’s land” resembling lawless failed states such as Somalia.
Although there is no evidence of recruitment to Hamas in Gaza, this will become more likely if the conflict drags.
“As long as the war goes on, there will be recruiting for the simple reason that the bloodshed that has taken place, the killing, the destruction, starvation … is just provoking more hate and a will among a part of the population to fight,” said Dr Mkhaimar Abusada, a political science professor at Gaza’s Al-Azhar University.
Hamas also retains a clear propaganda capability and is able to edit and produce videos in Gaza. The group is able to respond to Israeli initiatives such as the leaflets it dropped on Rafah this month featuring photos of dozens of hostages, offering rewards for anyone who supplies information about their whereabouts.
Hours later, Al-Majd al-Amni, a media outlet linked to the Hamas internal security force, warned Palestinians against accepting the offer.
Milstein said any 16- or 17-year-old in Gaza could be given a Kalashnikov or rocket-propelled grenade launcher – the weapon that caused 21 Israeli deaths in a single incident last week.
“We can’t say if it is already under way, but it will be done,” said Milstein. “If it happens, it could look like Iraq after 2003.”
