Almost half of Conservative councillors polled this week believe that neither Robert Jenrick nor Kemi Badenoch will be able to win the next election, and a significant minority said they did not plan to vote in the leadership contest.
Pollsters at Savanta said they detected a small boycott movement among councillors dissatisfied with the choice between the two candidates, who both come from the party’s right.
James Cleverly, who went out in the final round of MPs’ votes, was the most popular among the 379 councillors who were polled. Badenoch came third and Jenrick fourth.
The poll comes ahead of the first head-to-head televised interviews between the final two candidates, and as ballots arrive with party members. Jenrick and Badenoch will face off on GB News in front of an audience, though they will take questions separately rather than debate with each other. No agreement has been reached with any channel to do a debate, though Jenrick has said he would agree to offers from broadcasters.
According to the polling, between the two remaining candidates Badenoch is preferred by 31% of councillors and Jenrick 23%, with 28% undecided and 15% not planning to vote. In the last contest, between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, 5% said they did not intend to vote.
Chris Hopkins, the political research director at Savanta, said: “Our research suggests a deep well of dissatisfaction among Conservative councillors about the choice on offer to them in the leadership contest. Councillors are the grassroots of any major party, and their views are usually a useful indication of how the wider membership may well be feeling.
“In fact, a significant proportion of Conservative councillors say they’ll be boycotting the contest, with one in seven saying they will not vote. This is particularly notable as it is three times higher than for the Sunak v Truss contest in 2022, and chimes with our other findings where nearly half say the quality of candidates are not good enough to win a general election.”
Ballots are being sent out to party members this week and the winner is due to be announced on Saturday 2 November.
Jenrick has repeatedly challenged his rival to a head-to-head debate but Badenoch’s camp has insisted it is up to CCHQ to agree one.
In a veiled swipe at Jenrick at a rally for members on Wednesday night, Badenoch said she was not running a “media campaign” and was focused on the grassroots.
Jenrick gave a speech in Westminster on his economic plans earlier that day and warned repeatedly against “drama and excuses”, which was seen as criticism of Badenoch.
