MORE than half of people expect the number of those living in poverty to have risen by the end of the Labour Government’s current term, according to a study.
Some four in 10 Labour voters expect this to be the case by 2029, the research from King’s College London (KCL) and the Fairness Foundation suggested.
The Government has said its Budget, delivered on Wednesday, marks the “first steps” in Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall’s plan to “drive up opportunity and drive down poverty across the UK”.
But Keir Starmer’s government has faced criticism, including from within his own party, for not committing to scrap the two-child benefit limit and for the decision to limit the winter fuel allowance to all but the poorest pensioners.
Official statistics released earlier this year showed the estimated total number of people in relative low income was at 14.35 million in the year to March 2023, with some 4.33m of those being children.
The latest figure for children was the highest since comparable records for the UK began in 2002/03.
A household is considered to be in relative poverty if it is below 60% of the median income after housing costs.
Various charities representing disabled people have also criticised Labour’s decision to plough ahead with welfare reforms announced by the previous Conservative government, aiming to cut the benefits bill by an estimated £3 billion.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves (below) pledged to deliver savings “as part of fundamental reforms to the health and disability benefits system”.
The polling was carried out two weeks before the Budget and suggested the outlook is pessimistic, with a third of the public expecting their standard of living will have fallen in the next five years, a similar proportion (34%) thinking it will stay the same, and just under a fifth (19%) feeling it will have improved.
Around 52% said they expect the number of people living in poverty to have risen in that period, while 45% feel the gap between richest and poorest will also have widened.
Just 14% said they thought poverty would be reduced, and 13% felt the wealth gap would have narrowed.
The findings suggested Labour voters are almost as gloomy in their outlook as Conservative voters, with 44% of the former expecting poverty to rise, compared with 51% of Tory supporters.
But Labour voters were more likely than Conservatives to think the rate of economic growth and funding for public services will rise.
Labour voters were also more likely to feel their own standard of living will improve, but this was still low at just over a quarter (28%) compared with just under a fifth (17%) of Conservative voters.
The survey, based on a nationally representative poll of 2050 UK adults, found people are almost four times as likely to expect trust in Government to fall rather than rise over the five-year lifetime of this Parliament – at 52% compared with 14%.
Professor Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at KCL, said: “This study outlines the stark challenges facing the Government in creating a sense of optimism and belief that a brighter future is possible by the end of their first term.
“The public, and Labour’s own supporters, are more likely to think poverty and inequality will get worse rather than better.”
