Gulf states are capitalising on the resounding vote at the UN general assembly in favour of calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza by warning the US they will not once again fund the reconstruction of Gaza unless Israel agrees to a published roadmap to a two-state solution.
In Israel the general assembly vote was dismissed as a further sign of anti-Israeli bias at the UN. But with the US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, due to visit the region, pressure is building on Israel to show greater flexibility about what will constitute a military victory and how Gaza will be administered once the war ends.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has said he will not permit a role for the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas, nor countenance a two-state solution. Netanyahu’s defiance led to Joe Biden delivering his most public criticism of Israel yet on Tuesday, urging Israel to avoid an indiscriminate bombing campaign in Gaza and saying Netanyahu should rid his cabinet of its extreme-right ministers.
The United Arab Emirates ambassador to the UN, Lana Nusseibeh, told the Wall Street Journal: “The message is going to be very clear: we need to see a viable two-state solution plan, a roadmap that is serious, before we talk about the next day and rebuilding the infrastructure of Gaza.”
Qatar, which has provided the most cash for Gaza in previous reconstructions, has adopted the same position. The UAE and Qatar would like to see the split between the Fatah party that runs the Palestinian Authority from the West Bank and Hamas, dominant in Gaza, to end.
Biden’s apparently deliberate criticism of Israel at a meeting with party donors may be driven by the sense that US diplomatic isolation is growing, as is opposition to the White House strategy among Democratic voters. But there is no sign that the US is going to end its military support for Israel.
At his meeting with donors, Biden described Netanyahu as a good friend but said he had to change. “This is the most conservative government in Israel’s history,” he said. “[Itamar] Ben-Gvir and co. They are a different kind of bunch. They don’t want any solution with the Palestinians, they just want to punish all the Palestinians.”
At the general assembly on Tuesday, US allies including Australia and Canada that had abstained on a Gaza truce vote on 27 October defied the US and voted in favour of calling for a ceasefire.
In a joint statement, the three nations from the Five Eyes intelligence alliance that voted yes – Australia, Canada and New Zealand – said: “In defending itself, Israel must respect international humanitarian law. Civilians and civilian infrastructure must be protected. We are alarmed at the diminishing safe space for civilians in Gaza. The price of defeating Hamas cannot be the continuous suffering of all Palestinian civilians.”
Tuesday’s general assembly resolution contained a clear call for the release of all hostages and a call for the protection of all civilians but made no direct criticism of Hamas.
Inside the EU, division on the issue continues but the trend away from supporting Israel is apparent. Support for EU sanctions on settlers indulging in violence on the West Bank is also growing.
Biden’s political difficulty in ending the US’s diplomatic isolation is that his chosen vehicle to represent the Palestinians after the war, the Palestinian Authority, has little support among Palestinians or Israelis.
A poll conducted among Palestinians by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, published on Wednesday, found 60% support for the PA to be dissolved. Only 16% said they would vote for Abbas in a presidential election and 60% called for Hamas to take charge.
The Israeli opposition leader, Yair Lapid, wrote on X: “There is no one in the world who thinks that Gaza should be handed over to Abu Mazen [Abbas’s nom de guerre] the day after the war.”
There are signs that senior European politicians are investing in the former defence minister Benny Gantz as a potential alternative leader to Netanyahu, testing him out on his vision of Israel’s security postwar. The UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, is one of a number of European politicians who have spoken to Gantz in recent days.
A poll for the Maariv news outlet in late November found that Gantz’s National Unity party stood to increase its seats to 43, from only 12 now, in the 120-seat Knesset if an election were to be held soon. Netanyahu’s Likud would slump from 32 seats to 18, it found.
• This article was amended on 14 December 2023 to correct a graphic that previously showed Ireland as having voted against the UN resolution on 12 December.
