Voters are divided about whether or not Labor should stick with an election promise to keep the Morrison government’s stage-three tax cuts, although prime beneficiaries of the change are more likely to argue Anthony Albanese should stick to his word.
Asked about their attitude to election promises in general, 52% of respondents to the latest Guardian Essential survey said it was never acceptable for political parties to break election promises, while 48% said it was OK to break a promise if circumstances change.
The sample of 1,122 voters was also asked whether or not Labor should keep the Coalition’s tax cuts as promised, or amend them in the light of changing economic circumstances.
In response, 53% said Labor needed to stick with the tax cuts even though the economic situation was different to 2019, while 47% said it was understandable the promise would be broken.
But the new survey suggests community views aren’t uniform. Guardian Essential respondents who are set to reap the greatest benefit from the stage three package are more likely to favour keeping that commitment than people who believe they will get nothing significant out the tax cuts scheduled for 2024.
A majority of respondents (70%) who identify as people who will benefit a great deal under the stage three reforms said the prime minister needs to keep his word, while only 30% of that cohort say it is understandable the government would shift.
Of those who think they will get nothing out of the package, 60% said it is understandable Labor would break the tax pledge given Australia now faces more challenging economic circumstances, while 40% say the government should stay the course.
While the winners of stage three clearly favour Labor proceeding with the tax cut, they still say government services are a priority: 64% said it was more important to properly fund services like health and education than to reduce taxes for people earning over $200,000.
Voters were asked about the tax cuts this fortnight because the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, and the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, have recently prepared the ground for amending the stage three package.
This sanctioned kite-flying by the economic team ahead of the Albanese’s government’s first budget on 25 October has ignited a public argument in Labor ranks. The prime minister then terminated the conversation, saying the government would not shift its position on the stage-three tax cuts.
The stage-three tax cuts, introduced by the Morrison government and passed with Labor’s support in 2019, scraps the $120,000-to-$180,000 tax bracket, lifts the top tax bracket threshold from $180,000 to $200,000, and puts in place a 30% tax rate for income between $45,000 and $200,000.
The cost to the budget is $243bn over 10 years from when they come into effect in 2024, with the benefits flowing predominantly to higher-income earners.
The latest poll suggests the pre-budget speculation about the fate of the stage three package has made no appreciable impact on Albanese’sstanding with voters. A majority (58%) of respondents approve of Albanese’s performance, while 26% disapprove. Last month, 59% of voters approved of the prime minister’s performance while 25% disapproved.
The trend has been steady for several months. Approval of Albanese in the Guardian Essential poll rocketed up in the month immediately following his election victory, rising from 42% to 59% between May and June 2022. It has ranged from the mid-to-high 50s ever since.
Ahead of next Tuesday’s budget – Labor’s first since the May election victory – Chalmers has sounded a public warning about the risks of recession in major economies, and made it clear inflationary pressure in the domestic economy will continue for some time yet.
Votes were also asked this fortnight to reflect on their personal financial circumstances. Only 15% of respondents said they felt comfortable at the moment, with a buffer of savings that allowed for buying luxuries (down from 20% in June); 41% said they could cover their expenses (down from 42%); and a further 44% said they were either struggling a bit or were in serious financial difficulty (up 6%).
Albanese, who toured flood-effected regions on Monday, warned the current deluge in eastern Australia would further fuel domestic inflation through higher grocery prices. Chalmers sounded a similar warning in Canberra.
“I think we need to brace ourselves for the impact of these natural disasters on the cost of living,” he said. “We’re talking here about some of the best growing and producing country in Australia.”
