Dominic Perrottet holds a slim lead over the New South Wales opposition leader Chris Minns as preferred premier, but the Coalition’s flagship election policy of a super fund for kids has done little to sway voters, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
While the poll did not test the parties’ primary votes, it did find that most people – 41% – expect Labor to win the election compared to 35% for the Coalition.
Less than a week out from the closest state election since at least 2007, the poll found that while more voters were familiar with key Coalition policies, they were less likely to affect their vote.
In an election campaign which has often failed to capture the imagination, Essential’s poll found the bulk of respondents had not been significantly moved by major policy announcements made in the lead-up to Saturday’s vote.
The Coalition’s “Kids Future Fund”, announced at the Coalition campaign launch two weeks ago, was a long-term pet project of Perrottet’s and marked the centrepiece of the party’s bid for a fourth term in office. It has been criticised in some quarters over fears it would entrench inequality.
But the poll of 700 NSW voters suggested it had done little to improve the Coalition’s fortunes in an election in which it has consistently trailed in polls. The Essential poll found 31% of people were more likely to vote for Labor as a result of the policy, while the bulk – 53% – said it would make no difference.
Only 16% of respondents were more likely to vote for the Coalition as a result of the policy, while, worryingly for the government, 18% of those who identified as Liberal or Nationals voters said it was more likely to make them vote Labor.
Labor’s own signature policy of scrapping a public sector wages cap similarly failed to significantly move voter intention, with 56% saying it would make no difference to how they voted. Of those polled, 31% said it made them more likely to vote for Labor while 13% said the Coalition.
The poll, in the field last week, was taken prior to the release of Parliamentary Budget Office costings which raised doubts over what removing the wages cap would cost the economy.
The party’s promise of no further privatisation fared slightly better, with 36% saying that it was more likely to make them vote for Labor. Twenty per cent of Liberal or Nationals voters also said it would increase the likelihood of them voting Labor.
However the bulk – 54% – also said it would not make any difference to their vote.
But the Essential poll also found that Perrottet holds a narrow lead over Minns on the question of who would make the better premier, 36% to 33%. Strikingly, 32% of people remained unsure.
Essential also polled another key Perrottet promise to introduce mandatory cashless gaming on poker machines by 2028. Of those polled, 58% said it was unlikely to affect their vote, while 26% said they were more likely to vote Labor and 16% the Coalition.
