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Paul Spoonley, Distinguished Professor, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

Growing, going, gone: latest numbers show NZ now at risk of population stagnation

A year after the 2023 census, changes were already taking place in New Zealand’s population that meant the data was in danger of being superseded.

Fertility was continuing to decline, the number of immigrants arriving was beginning to climb, there was an exodus of New Zealand citizens, Māori made up more of the population and Asian communities were continuing to grow.

Eighteen months on, we need to revise the picture again. As is often the case with New Zealand, a period of supercharged population growth fuelled by immigration has been followed by a slump.

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