PHILADELPHIA — Snow was still on the ground Wednesday in the Philadelphia region, and Punxsutawney Phil doesn’t expect things to change for the next six weeks.
The nation’s most popular marmot saw his shadow Wednesday morning after scurrying out of a burrow at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney. As the legend goes, that means the country can expect below-average temperatures for the next six weeks.
After the pandemic limited crowds last year, tens of thousands of people gathered in the small western Pennsylvania town to watch the ceremony, hosted by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
How accurate has Punxsutawney Phil been over the years?
Last year, Punxsutawney Phil predicted six more weeks of winter by seeing his shadow. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Phil was somewhat right — the contiguous United States did see below average temperatures in February, but experienced above average temperatures in March.
Unfortunately, Phil hasn’t been all that accurate over the years.
Since 1887, Phil and his predecessors have predicted more winter 104 times and called for 20 early springs, according to Stormfax Almanac (no records exist for nine years). Live Science did an analysis of the data and concluded Phil’s six-week predictions have been correct just 39% of the time.
Over the last 10 years, Phil has been accurate 40% of the time, according to NOAA, nailing his prediction in 2020, 2016, 2014 and 2013.
What about that rival groundhog in Staten Island?
While Phil gets the bulk of the attention each year, New York media outlets continue to push a competing forecast from their homegrown rival, Staten Island Chuck.
Chuck, who also goes by Charles G. Hogg, resides at the Staten Island Zoo. He and his predecessors have been making weather predictions since 1981, and he differed from Phil last year by forecasting an early spring.
While Chuck doesn’t get near the acclaim, he’s had to deal with more harrowing conditions than his Pennsylvania counterpart. In 2009, Chuck bit then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg and was secretly replaced by his granddaughter, Charlotte, for the 2014 ceremony. Unfortunately, then-Mayor Bill de Blasio dropped Charlotte on the ground, and the groundhog died several days later.
Here’s hoping New York City’s new mayor, Eric Adams, will have a better working relationship with the buck-toothed prognosticator.
Chuck and Phil have disagreed on the forecast seven times since 2008, and during that run the Staten Island rodent was only wrong twice, according to the Staten Island Advance. In fact, since 1981, Chuck had an accuracy rate of 80%. Just don’t tell Phil.
New Jersey’s weather-predicting groundhog didn’t make it to Groundhog Day
Residents in Middlesex County, New Jersey, were left without a groundhog to guide them this winter after Milltown Mel, a lesser-known weather-predicting marmot, died Sunday.
The news was announced by the Milltown Wranglers, who noted Mel’s untimely death left them with no fill-in options.
“Considering the average lifespan of a groundhog is about 3 years, that is not such a shock, but Mel left us at a tough time of year, when most of his fellow groundhogs are hibernating, so no babies will be available to replace him until this spring,” the group wrote on Facebook.
Last year was Mel’s sixth weather prediction, and like Staten Island Chuck he correctly predicted an early spring. Mel’s predecessor, who was purchased by former councilman and funeral home owner Jerry Guthlein from a breeder in Pennsylvania after spending a Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, died in August 2015 after making “a handful” of weather forecasts.
How did this whole marmot-predicting-the-weather thing start?
According to the Pennsylvania Tourism Office, Romans took the early Christian holiday Candlemas to Germany, where it was said that if there was enough sun on Candlemas Day for a badger to cast a shadow, there would be six more weeks of bad weather.
German immigrants brought this tradition to Pennsylvania, and in 1886 the editor of Punxsutawney’s newspaper teamed up with a group of groundhog hunters to begin the legend of Punxsutawney Phil’s weather prowess. So in the United States and Canada, we celebrate Groundhog Day on the same date Christians across the globe celebrate Candlemas.
While filming ‘Groundhog Day,’ Bill Murray was terrorized by the actor playing Phil
“A co-star that bites you once, well, I can accept that. But a co-star that bites you twice, well now, that’s a problem.”
That was Bill Murray in a 1993 interview with the Inquirer discussing his experience on the set of "Groundhog Day," where he was bitten multiple times by his hairy co-star, Scooter. Recalling the experience, Murray was so bitter he struggled to remember the little critter’s name.
“Hell, I don’t remember the little [jerk’s] name,” Murray said as he grew mock serious. “Let it suffice to say I will never, ever, make another major motion picture with him again. And I mean that.”
Murray said he wanted the actual Punxsutawney Phil to appear in the movie after meeting him a few years earlier, but after filmmakers decided not to film there for logistical reasons (choosing instead Woodstock, Illinois), Punxsutawney founding fathers played hardball and banned Phil from appearing in the movie.
“Phil was fabulous,” Murray recalled. “He’s treated like royalty and is very well-behaved. A true professional. And so when they couldn’t get him — a creature who has been hand-raised since birth and is very tame — what did they do? They went out into the wood and caught this Scooter, a groundhog who hated my guts from day one.”
Of course, Murray survived the shoot, and "Groundhog Day" has become a beloved classic comedy that fans return to each February. At the time, Murray said his comedies bothered him because they lacked political subtext, but came around when fans would thank him for providing some laughs.
“Being funny, I’ve realized, is my function,” Murray said. “And if I have to accomplish this by being terrorized by a mad hedgehog, hey, so be it.”
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