Still early(ish), but also still figuring out this crazy season as a couple of strong weeks in a row for us hit a bump last week. Nailed three ‘dogs with points on covers by the Browns (in our Upset of the Week), Texans and Cowboys, but not enough else went right. Unlucky, too, missing two games against the spread by a single point, and missing an outright upset with a Carson Wentz pick at the Titans 2-yard line with 13 seconds left. Luck is blind, and hopefully I’m due a little. Meantime, no excuses. Must do better and we shall. That starts now.
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Week 5: 9-7, .563 overall; 5-11, .313 vs. spread.
Season: 43-36-1, .544 overall; 35-44-1, .444 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 6 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
BILLS (4-1) at CHIEFS (4-1)
Line: BUF by 3.
Cote’s pick: BUF 31-27.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.
The Rematch is the most-hyped game of the season thus far but it is bound to be a letdown compared to Chiefs’ 42-36 overtime win over Bills in last year’s playoffs, right? Or is it? KC and BUF are 1-2 in NFL scoring. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are 1-2 in touchdown passes. Allen had 348 passing yards and four TDs last week — in the first half! Some trends favor the Chiefs. They’re on a 6-2 series run. Mahomes is up 4-1 on Allen head to head. Travis Kelce is unstoppable. KC is on a 10-1 home run at Arrowhead. But there’s also a reason why Buffs are favored, beyond the revenge-factor incentive or the Chiefs being a bit less rested after playing last Monday. It’s defense. Buffalo is tied for No. 1 in fewest points allowed and No. 2 in fewest yards. Kansas City’s D is tied for 23rd in points and mid-table in yards. Bills augment Allen with elite defense. Without Mahomes the Chiefs might not be a playoff team. This is something I’m not sure I’d ever do, but I’ve done it: Picked against Mahomes and Kansas City ... at home ... getting points. Now make me look smart, Josh.
GAME OF THE WEEK II
COWBOYS (4-1) at EAGLES (5-0)
Line: PHI by 6.
Cote’s pick: PHI, 23-20.
TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.
You know the ‘72 Perfect Season Dolphins have the champagne cool. They are ready to revive the annual tradition of toasting each other when the last unbeaten team loses each year. Now they just need Philly to cooperate Sunday night is all. Cowboys defensive monster Micah Parsons trying to keep Jalen Hurts in the pocket should alone be worth the price of a ticket. Forcing the Eagles offense from Hurts’ legs to his arm is Dallas’ best upset shot. That’s because, with two strong defenses, Philly’s big advantage is on offense. ‘Boys are 4-0 under Cooper Rush as Dak Prescott gets closer to returning, but they are only 24th in scoring. If Cowboys can’t limit Hurts’ dual threat, he’ll have clear path to outscoring Dallas. An upset might take forcing a mistake or two as well, with Phils having won the turnover battle in all five games. Mixed signals from trends, with Dallas winning three straight in series and on a 6-1 roll in prime time — but Birds 7-0-1 in last eight as home favorites. For ‘72 Dolphins, the champagne goes back in the fridge. But I do like Cowboys with the points.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
VIKINGS (4-1) at DOLPHINS (3-2)
Line: MIN by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: MIA, 24-21. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “Third quarterback’s a charm. Third quarterbaawwk!” Tua Tagovailoa is back on practice field after his concussion but not ready to play. Teddy Bridgewater also is in concussion protocol. Enter rookie Skylar Thompson for his first NFL start. It’s OK, though, all is well because, on the heel of two straight losses and down to QB3, the team captains ordered the ping-pong table removed from the Dolphins’ locker room so there would be no distractions leading up Sunday’s visit by Minnesota. (Ping-pong hasn’t been in the news this much since the early ‘70s when the U.S. and China exchanged table tennis players in what was coined ‘ping-pong diplomacy.’) Am I nervous about this upset pick? Oh hell yes! Vikings WR Justin Jefferson will be a handful for what has been a pretty bad Miami pass defense — and that’s even if Xavien Howard returns from his groin injury as hoped. Now here’s why I like the pick, and the Fins: The 4-1 record flatters Minnesota, which has won three in a row by one score over subpar teams. Kirk Cousins is a turnover machine and will fumble or be picked at least twice Sunday. Miami will be able to run on the Vikings. Fins have won eight home games in a row, and their defense is appreciably better at The Joe. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle against a below-average pass defense. And Thompson has had a game of experience to reprise how good he was in the preseason, or some semblance thereof. “Valid points,” nods U-Bird. “And I enjoy you calling the stadium “The Joe” instead of Hard Raaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 6:
Commanders (1-4) at Bears (2-3) Thursday night: We had Chicago (even betting line) winning at home over Washington, 23-16.
49ers (3-2, -5 1/2) over @Falcons (2-3), 23-18: San Francisco’s defense is allowing fewer yards per play than any team since the 2008 Steelers. Atlanta is best when running in order to hide Marcus Mariota, but 49ers stop the run better than anybody. Still, ATL keeps games close (5-0 vs. spread), and should again.
Patriots (2-3, +2 1/2) over @Browns (2-3), 20-17. Upset!: If Pats win, Bill Belichick, who began his head-coaching career in Cleveland, would tie George Halas with a 324th victory, second most all time behind (of course) Don Shula. I say he does. Bailey Zappe likely to start at QB again for rehabbing Mac Jones, but NE will win on ground vs. Browns’ bad run-D. Pats will do better limiting CLE’s powerful Nick Chubb-led run game.
@Packers (3-2, -7 1/2) over Jets (3-2), 31-16: NYJ offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is younger brother of Gee Bees head coach Matt LaFleur. Kid Bro’s QB Zach Wilson-led attack has looked better than Aaron Rodgers’ at times lately, but I’d not bet on that here. Pack fizzled in London last week but will bounce back big at Lambeau, where they’ve won 20 of past 24.
@Colts (2-2-1, -2) over Jaguars (2-3), 19-16: Indianapolis has lots of rest after playing (albeit dreadfully) last Thursday. Jax dominated the Colts 24-0 in Week 2, sacking Matt Ryan five times and intercepting him thrice. But Indy has won four straight home vs. this division rival, and Jaguars have lost 19 of past 20 (!) on the road. And Trevor Lawrence has had seven turnovers in past two games. I’ll feel better about this pick if RB Jonathan Taylor returns from injury as Nags hope.
Bengals (2-3, -2) over @Saints (2-3), 24-17: Former LSU stars Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase return to the state of their college heroics ... where ‘Nawlins has lost six of past eight at home. Each team has WR concerns, with Tee Higgins (ankle) and Chris Olave (concussion) both iffy. But Burrow has more healthy options left. Cincy’s defense is a solid tier better, too.
Ravens (3-2, -5 1/2) over @Giants (4-1), 24-20: This would have been a GOTW consideration most other weeks. Saquon Barkley has found his old mojo, Brian Daboll is the toast of the Apple, and NYG is 3-0 as an underdog. Giants kept it rolling with upset of Green Bay in London last week but are due a back-to-earth performance. Biggies have limited firepower with the ball and won’t outscore Lamar Jackson. Giants deserve more respect than the bet-line gives, though.
Buccaneers (3-2, -8 1/2) over @Steelers (1-4), 34-6: Rookie QB Kenny Pickett faces a very tough defense and challenge in his first home start, behind a bad offensive line and with RB Najee Harris off to a sluggish start. And Pitts once-proud D has turned subpar with major loss of T.J. Watt. Big day for that Tom Brady guy.
@Rams (2-3, -10) over Panthers (1-4), 24-0: Rams haven’t looked like Super Bowl champs in a single game yet, with Matthew Stafford struggling behind a shoddy O-line and negligible run game. But this could be the breakout game against a team that is down to third-string QB PJ Walker and just fired coach Matt Rhule. (Rhule of thumb: Don’t start 11-27 with your new team.) LAR’s two best players, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, are iffy with foot injuries but Sean McVay said he expects both to play.
Cardinals (2-3, -2 1/2) over @Seahawks (2-3), 30-27: Geno Smith quietly leads NFL in passer rating and completion percentage. The trouble is, Seattle’s defense could hardly be worse. ‘Zona has been better on road than at home lately, the away team is on an 11-3 run in this division series, and Kyler Murray’s receiving corps is healthier than it’s been.
@Chargers (3-2, -5) over Broncos (2-3), 23-20: Russell Wilson is playing (though badly) through a tear in his throwing shoulder, and should again Monday night for a tepid Denver offense that has the lowest red-zone TD rate through five weeks (21%) than any team since 2008. He has even heard boos at home. “If you’re going through hell, keep going,” Wilson tweeted this week, quoting Winston Churchill (!). Despite all that, Denver has a strong defense, has won five straight on road, and should keep this inside the betting number.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]
OFF THIS WEEK
Lions (1-4, next @Cowboys) — As byes debut, Detroit rests after third straight loss. Team is No. 3 in scoring, awful on defense. Miami gets Lions in two weeks.
Raiders (1-4, next vs. Texans) — If only close counted. Vegas lost at Kansas City, 30-29, Monday night and its four defeats have been by a combined 14 points.
Texans (1-3-1, next @Raiders) — Houston upset win at Jacksonville last week meant only the third time since 1970 merger NFL has zero winless teams entering Week 6.
Titans (3-2, next vs. Colts) — Ryan Tannehill and Tennessee have won three straight and lead AFC South but that could change when Indy visits next week.
