We’ll start with the glass-half-full optimism: In a Week 1 full of upsets and other surprises, we navigated the roiling sea to an even 8-8 mark against the spread. That included four dogs-with-points on covers by the Seahawks, Bears, Falcons and Lions, the latter our Upset of the Week (“Aawwk!”). Now the glass-half-empty, because we must: We got rocked to the tune of a 6-9-1 start overall. No excuses. We move on, and upward, as we dig into out 32nd season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald!
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Week 1/Season: 6-9-1, .406 overall; 8-8, .500 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 2 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
UPSET OF THE WEEK
BUCCANEERS (1-0) at SAINTS (1-0)
Line: TB by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: NO, 24-20. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” yodels the Upset Bird. “Tom Brady meets his nemesis. Tom Braaawwwk!” Great discord arose in the Game of the Week committee meeting as a lack of consensus devolved into a game of rock-paper-scissors. But this is as good as any, one of only four 1-0 v. 1-0 matchups in a scrum for the NFC South lead. Plus it has Tom Braaawwwk I mean Brady. G.O.A.T. Man is 0-4 as a Buc vs. N’Awlins, which is on a 15-3 run in division games and a 7-1 roll at home against Tampa. Bucs, on a short week after playing last Sunday night will likely be missing WR Chris Godwin, with Julio Jones and Leonard Fournette also less than healthy. Mostly, I love Saints’ pass rush against a banged-up TB offensive line, a bad sign for old, immobile TB12. “I’ve been known to dip a beak into the soft underbelly of roadkill, and yet picking against Brady always makes me queasy,” notes U-Bird. “Call it an upset stomach. Upsaawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 2:
Thursday night: Chargers (1-0) at Chiefs (1-0): We had Kansas City (-4) winning at home but not covering, 30-27, in the Patrick Mahomes-Justin Herbert air show.
@Ravens (1-0, -3 1/2) over Dolphins (1-0), 24-20: The Miami Dolphins’ performance that comfortably won at home 20-7 over New England last week will not suffice at Baltimore on Sunday. The Ravens are better than the Pats, and the Fins better be better, too. Miami is second in the NFL in turnover ratio (plus-3) and leads the league in cars burned in the parking lot due to tailgate mishaps (11), but will need to be better all-round this time. Better tackling, better Tua Tagovailoa, better everything. Ravens lost CB Kyle Fuller and left tackle Ja’Wuan James (the ex-Fin) to injuries last week, but hope to finally have back RB J.K. Dobbins. Then there’s that Lamar Jackson guy. If Miami wants a measuring stick of how good it really is, a gauge far better than last week, “at Baltimore” will do it.
@Browns (1-0, -6 1/2) over Jets (0-1), 20-13: Cleveland in its home debut should dominate on defense and also in time of possession with its Nick Chubb-led ground game. We’ll chance Earthtones to barely cover but must say Planes plus 6 1/2 is a strong temptation in what figures to be a low-scoring afternoon.
Commanders (1-0, +1 1/2) over @Lions (0-1), 27-23 Upset!: Reliably woeful Detroit has been a betting underdog for 24 consecutive games ... until now. Yes, the Lions are favored! Bettors must be mighty impressed that Motown almost won last week. I was more impressed by Carson Wentz. And DET’s top back, D’Andre Swift, is iffy with an ankle injury.
Colts (0-0-1, -4) over @Jaguars (0-1), 24-16: In gambling oft-times the trend is your friend. Sometimes, though, “the trend must end” better applies. As it does here. Indy has lost seven straight trips to J’ville, and I don’t see that anomaly continuing in this division series. Colts shake off last week’s disappointing tie and assert against a Jags team on a 2-13 skid at home.
@Giants (1-0, -2) over Panthers (0-1), 23-20: The Upset Bird was eyeing this one because, well, it’s the Giants, and NYG starting 2-0 stretches credulity to the snapping point. Still, Saquon Barkley looked like his old, best self last week. And I just don’t trust Baker Mayfield to do much right.
@Steelers (1-0, +2) over Patriots (0-1), 20-17 Upset!: The rare game where the coaching matchup, Bill Belichick vs. Mike Tomlin, merits the spotlight. Steelers have won five straight as home dogs. Make it six. Although RB Najee Harris iffy with a foot injury is a concern, Pittsburgh’s defense ravaged Joe Burrow last week and will do the same to Pats’ Mac Jones — if his back injury even allows him to play. Steelers will miss injured T.J. Watt, but that NE offense we saw in Miami last week could make it a long season for Belichick.
@Rams (0-1, -10 1/2) over Falcons (0-1), 34-16: Rams came out flat with the Super Bowl champion hangover last week, although playing Buffalo can do that to any team. With extra rest after playing last Thursday, expect a major bounce-back performance against a still-lousy Falcons defense.
@49ers (0-1, -8 1/2) over Seahawks (1-0), 19-16: Don’t expect Seattle or Geno Smith to replicate the intensity they brought last week at home in making it a hostile (and losing) homecoming for Russell Wilson. But the Frans and Trey Lance have done little to justify being favored by this much in what should be a points-shy game — especially with RB Elijah Mitchell out and TE George Kittle doubtful. ‘Hawks have won past three trips to SF.
Bengals (0-1, -7) over @Cowboys (0-1), 23-20: Dallas got crushed by Tampa last week, has lost its past three home games, and now star QB Dak Prescott is out at least six weeks injured, with Cooper Rush making his second career star Sunday. I’d not write off the ‘Boys just yet, though. Dallas’ defense will keep ‘em in games, and Cincy had five turnovers last week in a pratfall of its own. See it close, and an outright upset wold not surprise.
@Broncos (0-1, -10) over Texans (0-0-1), 31-13: Russell Wilson got booed in Seattle last week in a reaction nearly as loud as the Seahawks’ awful neon-green uniforms. He’ll enjoy the opposite in his love-in of a Denver debut. Houston may be better than expected (ask Indy), but see a massive rebound effort from Broncos that thankfully won’t be close enough for coach Nathaniel Hackett to blow with a bad late call.
@Raiders (0-1, -5 1/2) over Cardinals (0-1), 34-26: I’d not consign Arizona to the major-disappointment bin after one loss. It was against KC and Patrick Mahomes, after all. But this is a truism that will haunt the Cardbirds all year: They no longer have a pass rush to worry any opposing QB. That means Derek Carr and Davante Adams will have happy fantasy owners this week. And Kyler Murray will be playing from behind a lot.
@Packers (0-1, -10) over Bears (1-0), 24-16: NFL’s most-played rivalry renews Sunday night with Aaron Rodgers in the unforgivable position of having no elite WR to throw to. It’s like not giving Leonardo da Vinci a paint brush. Trends still love Gee Bees. Pack has won six straight in rivalry, Rodgers is on 6-0 run on “SNF,” and Bears have lost seven straight in prime-time. Like Rodgers finding a way again, but Chi-plus-10 seems a worthy buy.
@Bills (1-0, -10) over Titans (0-1), 38-20: First of two Monday night games finds Buffs coming off a Week 1 bow that justified all the Super Bowl hype, and Titans — last year’s No. 1 AFC seed — seemingly headed for a big drop-off. Now the Bills have the jolt of a home opener at night and are rested after playing last Thursday. Tenners are on an 8-2 roll on “MNF” and beat Bills each of past two seasons. But things have changed. Big time.
@Eagles (1-0, -2) over Vikings (1-0), 27-23: Intriguing matchup with a shootout feel. Vikes’ Kirk Cousins was a notorious 8-17 in prime-time before winning twice under the lights last year to calm that noise some. And budding two-way star Jalen Hurts as Eagles fans excited. Coin-flip call leans on a goose from a home-opener at night.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]
