Been a tough season all-round but we’re making the climb to get up over the Mendoza line (.600) straight-up. Even more important to us is finishing plus-.500 against the spread — and we’re right there. Last week we were a solid 10-4-1 overall and 8-7 ATS, including an Upset of the Week win with Giants’ cover vs. Washington, and Rams with the points vs. Seattle. Let’s keep climbing! (Note, result of Thursday night Raiders-Rams game not included below.)
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Week 13: 10-4-1, .714 overall; 8-7, .533 vs. spread.
Season: 114-79-2, .591 overall; 94-95-6, .497 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 14 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
BUCCANEERS (6-6) at 49ERS (8-4)
Line: SF by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: SF, 20-16.
TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.
No clear-cut Game of the Week this time. Could've been Eagles-Giants or a couple of others. But I look forward to watching San Fran’s great defense try to make up for injury absence of Jimmy Garoppolo as rookie Brock Purdy makes his first NFL start. And do that against Tom Brady. I will ride Niners’ defense at home, where they have won nine of last 10 games. But Brady might catch a break if pass rush savant Nick Bosa, chasing the league DPOY award, misses the game with a hamstring injury as he might. Either way, Bucs rank 26th in scoring offense, and 49ers are not where you find as remedy for that.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
VIKINGS (10-2) at LIONS (5-7)
Line: DET by 2.
Cote’s pick: MIN, 34-30. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bowl. ”Minnesaawwk!” Vikings clinch NFC North title with a win or tie. Mr. Vegas doesn’t think they will, but I do. Minny has won nine of past 10 in series including earlier this year in a close one, and see that trend continuing. I get the betting line, sort of. Lions have won four of past five, and Jared Goff is having a sneaky-good year and can exploit Vikes’ bad pass D. But Kirk Cousins counters with plenty of firepower to get into, and win, a shootout. “Yes, Detroit’s pass defense is almost as bad as Minnesota’s,” notes U-Bird. “Fantasy gold for Justin Jeffersaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 14:
Raiders at Rams Thursday night: We had Las Vegas (-6) beating Los Angeles but not covering, 24-20.
@Bills (9-3, -9 1/2) over Jets (7-5), 31-13: Buffalo had won four in a row in this AFC East rivalry before NYJ won, 20-17, a month ago. Don’t see a repeat by the Jets. Mike White has given the offense more pop but the red-zone woes continue. Bills are on a 8-1 run at home, are rested after playing last Thursday, and have an improving ground game to take heat off Josh Allen. R-O-U-T!
@Bengals (8-4, -5 1/2) over Browns (5-7), 27-23: Hearing Cincy fans boo Deshaun Watson would alone be worth the price of admission. Bengals would be on a seven-game win streak if not for a 32-13 loss to Browns on Halloween; now, revenge will be sweet. Cleveland has owned this series lately, winning four in a row strand eight of past nine, but see that trend hitting a wall. Gals getting Joe Mixon back from concussion makes me think so even more — although the bet line feels fat.
@Cowboys (9-3, -17) over Texans (1-10-1), 41-10: Dallas is really, really good and flying high. Houston has been mathematically, scientifically and theologically eliminated from playoff contention. NFL mismatches don’t get much bigger than this Governor’s Cup game. Even the enormous point spread gives us only the briefest pause.
@Titans (7-5, -4) over Jaguars (4-8), 27-20: Trevor Lawrence expects to play through a toe injury, and the lousy pass defense he will face gives Jags a medium-sized upset shot. Except this: Jax has lost 19 of its past 20 road games. And this: Tennessee has won five in a row and nine of past 10 against this opponent. Titans got beat up so badly by Philly last week it cost GM Jon Robinson his job, but see a big bounce-back performance here. Need to get Derrick Henry going, though.
Eagles (11-1, -7) @Giants (7-4-1), 23-17: Philadelphia clinches playoff spot with a win, if 49ers and Seahawks both lose. This one got a look for Game of the Week, except I don’t give G-Men much chance. Eagles have won 15 of past 16 as the favorite. NYG is in an 0-2-1 slump and needs to get Saquon Barkley unstuck. Still, hunch Biggies with the points on their home field.
@Steelers (5-7, -2) over Ravens (8-4), 19-16: Odd-at-a-glance betting line is simply because Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is expected to miss the game with a knee injury, and the drop-off to Tyler Huntley is steep. Also a factor: Pittsburgh has won its past two games and three of past four — and is on a 4-0 series roll vs. Baltimore. Give Crows a big upset shot, but see Pitt a kick better at home in a points-shy matchup.
Chiefs (9-3, -9 1/2) over @Broncos (3-9), 24-13: KC clinches AFC West crown with a win, if Chargers lose to Miami. Chiefs have won 13 straight in this lopsided series, and Broncos are on an 0-7 skid in division games. And as if Russell Wilson’s season was not going miserably enough, now top receiver Courtland Sutton is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Denver’s defense may keep it close(ish), but Broncos winning outright would be a stunner.
@Seahawks (7-5, -4) over Panthers (4-8), 27-16: Want to play running back for the Seahawks? Fill out a form. They could use you. Seattle’s RB room is a triage center; otherwise, a clear pick. Seattle’s defense has second-most takeaways in league, another reason to like Geno Smith over Sam Darnold in a duel of Jets rejects. Also, Carolina has lost nine in a row on the road.
Dolphins (8-4, -3 1/2) over @Chargers (6-6), 27-23:
Why I like the Dolphins in this prime-time matchup: 1) Miami is 7-0 when scoring more than 17 points, and Chargers give up the third-most points in the NFL. 2) LAC’s pass defense just got absolutely torched by Davante Adams, and now says hello to Tyreek Hill. Also: Bolts bring a much less fierce pass rush than the one San Fran troubled Tua Tagovailoa with last week. And Chargers have lost five in a row as an underdog. Reasons for concern? 1) Health. Tagovailoa (ankle) is questionable; expect him to play but perhaps with limited mobility. OT Terron Armstead and WR Jaylen Waddle also are iffy. 2) Justin Herbert has the weapons (Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen) to wreak some havoc, and Miami’s defense tends not to show up on the road as strong as it does at Hard Rock. Bottom line: Fair confidence in this pick, but an upset would only mildly surprise. If Fins get caught looking ahead to Buffalo next week, they could find themselves traveling there on a two-game losing streak.
@Cardinals (4-8, +1 1/2) over Patriots (6-6), 23-20. Upset!: Arizona is on a ridiculous 1-11 skid at home, but that has to end sometime ... right? How about on Monday night?Cardbirds coach Kliff Kinsgbury, his seat getting hotter and coming off a bye, better hope so. New England has had trouble defending running QBs, and I look for Kyler Murray to have a big night, especially afoot.
(Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.)
OFF THIS WEEK
Bears (3-10, next vs. Eagles) — Loss to Packers was Chitown’s sixth straight and mathematically eliminated all playoff hope in what’s been a waste of a breakthrough season for QB Justin Fields.
Colts (4-8-1, next @Vikings) — The 54-19 prime-time embarrassment vs. Cowboys was Indy’s third straight loss. It’s officially OK to question and mock the Jeff Saturday hire again.
Commanders (7-5-1, next vs. Giants) — Weird schedule quirk: After 20-20 tie at Giants, Washington — eighth in hunt for seven NFC playoff spots — faces NYG again after the bye.
Falcons (5-8, next @Saints) — Atlanta’s offense has scored 17 points or fewer in its past six losses, a big reason there is a QB change, with Marcus Mariota benched for rookie Desmond Ridder.
Packers (5-8, next vs. Rams) — Green Bay beat Bears (as usual), but it may be too little too late for Aaron Rodgers, who’ll visit Miami for a Christmas Day matinee.
Saints (4-9, next vs. Falcons) — N’Awlins is on a 1-4 skid, and why Saints are not starting a now-healthy Jameis Winston is one of the mysteries of this NFL season.
