We began our NFL picks in the Miami Herald way back in 1991. I’m not sure we thought we would do it again in ‘92. Don Shula and Dan Marino were still going strong. “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” topped the box office, Michael Jackson’s “Black Or White” was all over the radio, and the first George Bush was president. Well, time flew, as time does, and now we set out on our 32nd season of NFL picks. Welcome back or welcome aboard. You know we like to have fun here; perhaps our Upset Bird sidekick (“Aawwk!”) was a hint. But we also take our picks seriously and want to win. Let’s roll!
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
GAME OF THE WEEK
BUCCANEERS (0-0) at COWBOYS (0-0)
Line: TB by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: DAL, 28-27. Upset!
TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.
Real GOTW might’ve been Bills-Rams Thursday, but we needed one here and you can’t go wrong with America’s Quarterback vs. America’s Team -- Tom Brady at the Cowboys in prime time. How dare I on the upset? Dallas has this game’s two most dynamic defensive players in Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs, and I see a messy pocket for the immobile Brady, 45, behind a line missing two injured starters and with security blanket Gronk gone. For Dallas on offense, Amari Cooper is gone and Michael Gallup likely out, but Dak Prescott has ample weapons left led by CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Prime-time trends also smile on Dallas, with Boys on a 6-0 run ATS at night, and Bucs on a 1-9 skid covering under the lights. Hey, it’s a hunch. Let’s see.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
EAGLES (0-0) at LIONS (0-0)
Line: PHI by 4.
Cote’s pick: DET, 23-20. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” declares the Upset Bird. “Week 1 shocker by the boys from Hard Knaawwk!” The spotlight from Hard Knocks, a quotable alpha coach in Dan Campbell and a strong preseason have given Detroit a bit of buzz. Despite Jared Goff, I see Lions on the upswing, especially with an improved defense I expect to be sneaky-good. And D’Andre Swift and some other weapons might make even Goff look good; well, decent. “Lions D can help me out on Sunday by turning Jalen Hurts’ surname into a verb,” notes U-Bird. “Detroiaawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 1:
Thursday night: Bills (0-0, -2) at Rams (0-0): Our pick was Rams over Bills, 28-24, in a small home-dog upset.
Saints (0-0, -5 1/2) over @Falcons (0-0), 23-20: Fourteen seasons of Matt Ryan is put in the rear view as Marcus Mariota takes over for Atlanta against Jameis Winston’s Saints in a duel of the top two picks in the 2015 draft. N’Awlins also is moving on with the retirement (for now) of coach Sean Payton. Like Saints’ D vs. Mariota but lean to Birds covering a plump line in the home nest.
49ers (0-0, -7) over @Bears (0-0), 19-16: How ready is Trey Lance to be Niners’ QB1 as seasoned Jimmy Garopollo waits in the pen? He’ll get a boost if Deebo Samuel (knee) is able to go as seemed likelier Thursday. Justin Fields should do enough by air and land to keep a bad Bears team inside a bet-line that flatters SF — at least until Lance shows a little proof.
@Bengals (0-0, -6 1/2) over Steelers (0-0), 27-16: Cincy reached Super Bowl last year and is due a sizable drop-off, but it might not show here as Pitt experiences a steep drop-off of its own: Ben Roethlisberger to Mitch Trubisky. (Watch Kenny Pickett take over before midseason). Steelers had dominated series with 11 wins in a row before Bengals took the past three. With Joe Burrow fully back from his appendectomy, make it four.
@Dolphins (0-0, -3/1/2) over Patriots, 31-16: If I’m not leading the Dolphins bandwagon I’m damn sure near the steering wheel after rating Miami No. 5 in my NFL team ranking and placing Fins in the “Super Bowl contenders” category. Time to start backing up the bravado with our call in this AFC East rivalry marking one of six Week 1 division games. New England has lost in seven of past nine trips to Miami, so Bill Belichick had Pats in town since Tuesday trying to get used to the brutal heat. (Dear Bill, I’ve lived here my whole life. Still not used it it).
Ravens (0-0, -7) over @Jets (0-0), 28-13: Planes are deploying Joe Flacco to start against his longtime former team while Zach Wilson’s knee heals. Flacco is a 37-year-old statue and Crows’ pass rush should have its way. Baltimore has a few notable players (J.K. Dobbins, Ronnie Staley, Marcus Peters) battling back from injuries and iffy, but Lamar Jackson has plenty left to dominate a bad opponent.
@Commanders (0-0, -3) over Jaguars (0-0), 24-20: Redskins to ‘Football Team’ to Commanders. Washington just cannot get a nickname right! For other reasons the Upset Bird was circling this game like a buzzard over carrion. Fantasy geeks all in on Trevor Lawrence could see a payoff this year. More than that, new Jags coach Doug Pederson knows Commies QB Carson Wentz well from their days in Philly together. Still, the better all-round squad is the home team, and Jax has lost 17 in a row (!) on the road.
@Panthers (0-0, -2) over Browns (0-0), 23-20: Domino effect of Deshaun Watson’s 11-game Cleveland suspension for being a serial creep leaves us this bit of tasty intrigue: Baker Mayfield, now the Panthers QB, facing the team that discarded him in a bitter divorce (while Jacoby Brissett subs for Watson). So, of course, look for Nick Chubb and Christian McCaffrey to decide it. Sizable upset shot here, but slight edge to Cats at home over a Browns club that is on an 0-16-1 run in season openers, having last started 1-0 in 2004.
Colts (0-0, -7) over @Texans (0-0), 30-10: The Week 1 matchup with the least chance of an upset. Indy upgrades with Matt Ryan at QB, but it’s Jonathan Taylor’s fantasy owners who should be licking chops as their guy faces rebuilding Houston’s sad run defense.
@Titans (0-0, -5 1/2) over Giants (0-0), 24-16: Tennessee was AFC’s No. 1 seed last season before fizzling in playoffs, but I see a big drop this year, with top receiver A.J. Brown departed and top pass rusher Harold Landry injured. Ryan Tannehill (says here) could lose his job to rookie Malik Willis if the fall is as steep as I foresee. Titans are still plainly better than G-Men, though. Biggies have had roster upheaval and open with spate of injuries.
Packers (0-0, -2) over @Vikings (0-0), 27-23: Minnesota should be a trendy upset pick, if only because Vikes have been a bit of a nemesis for Pack, winning two of past three meetings and eight of past 13 — and four of past six at home. Losing Davante Adams hurts Aaron Rodgers, but he could get left tackle David Bakhtiari back from injury Sunday (that’s huge). And Gee Bees’ defense is really good.
Chiefs (0-0, -6) over @Cardinals (0-0), 31-27: Will Patrick Mahomes miss departed Tyreek Hill? Well, duh. But maybe not as much as Kyler Murray misses DeAndre Hopkins while he serves a six-game suspension for PEDs. Murray got a $230.5 million contract extension. Too bad he can’t buy amnesty for Hopkins. Mahomes still has more weapons, though I lean Cardbirds at home with the points.
@Chargers (0-0, -3 1/2) over Raiders (0-0), 28-24: Vegas has a special teams advantage here and may need it, because Justin Herbert’s attack enjoys an edge and so does LAC’s D. Having said that, the gap narrowed with Raiders adding WR Davante Adams and pass rusher Chandler Jones. Bolts are out to avenge a season-ending loss to LV that kept L.A. out of playoffs last year. That incentive and the home field should be enough.
Broncos (0-0, -6 1/2) over @Seahawks (0-0), 24-20: Game of the Week panel gave this one a look simply because: What kind of reaction will Seattle give its former hero Russell Wilson on his immediate return in a Denver uniform? Thankful applause for an icon? Angry boos for a traitor? We’ll know Monday night. What we know already is that Wilson to Geno Smith is the biggest downturn since that time I was a last minute replacement for Shakespeare at the writing seminar. Still, hunch an amped-up home crowd and Rashad Penny help keep the loss inside the bet-line.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].
