The Greens will present draft legislation within the next two months to legalise cannabis, Crikey can reveal.
Senator David Shoebridge, who recently received a cost analysis from the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) estimating that legalisation could generate $28 billion in revenue over a decade, said the legislation would be circulated for consultation and that the party’s goal was to convince the Labor government it is time to take cannabis off the black market.
“We’re genuinely excited by the breadth of the support for the campaign and the lack of any rational opposition to it,” Shoebridge told Crikey.
The Greens commissioned the PBO to calculate how much money Australia could make by legalising cannabis for adults.
Shoebridge said a combination of GST, company tax and a 15% cannabis sales tax would add up to more than $28 billion in government revenue in the first decade after legalisation.
If the cannabis tax was set at 25% instead, the revenue would be more than $36 billion.
The PBO’s analysis, seen by Crikey, also said the pre-taxed price of cannabis, which is currently estimated at $13.40 per gram, would fall to $6.50 within a decade.
It also said that the experience in Canada, where weed is legal, showed that more than half of recreational users would begin buying from legal sources within a few years.
Within a decade, the proportion of users buying legally would rise to 95%.
Shoebridge said this meant the black market would shrink markedly.
“One you legalise, you take out all the external profits that happen when bikie gangs and organised crime are involved,” he said.
“That will see the retail price drop significantly and will largely squeeze out black market operators.”
The PBO advice also said about 10% of estimated users would be from abroad.
Shoebridge said he believed tourist operators would welcome any increase in visitors, even from people who visit in order to smoke pot.
“I think having some people come here, to chill out in a legal market that’s well-regulated, and have yet another reason to spend their money in Australia, is only a good thing,” he said.
As for concerns that more Australians would start using the drug if it was legal, Shoebridge said it wasn’t a major risk.
“The modeling says it would move from about 10% of the population to 14%, but a significant part of that would be from tourists,” he said.
“So the domestic increase in consumption in Australia is very, very modest.”
