With 80% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC is giving Labor 87 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition 40, the Greens zero and all Others ten, with 13 seats remaining undecided.
Based on votes realigned to a Greens vs Labor two candidate count in Melbourne, the ABC has Greens leader Adam Bandt trailing Labor by almost 4,400 votes (52.9–47.1). This would be a 9.4% swing to Labor from the Greens since the 2022 election. Analyst Kevin Bonham agrees with the ABC’s estimate. Primary votes are 40.3% Bandt (down 4.4%), 31.5% Labor (up 5.8%) and 19.1% Liberals (down 0.5%).
Bandt had won Melbourne by 60.2–39.8 against Labor at the 2022 election, but his margin was reduced to 56.5–43.5 by an unfavourable redistribution. Bandt has become hated by the right, so it’s natural that their preferences would go to Labor ahead of Bandt.
