The next Conservative party leader could be swayed into ditching its net zero strategy in order to receive the backing of climate-sceptic MPs, senior Tories fear.
Prominent backbenchers have been plotting for months to persuade any possible replacement for Boris Johnson to ditch climate commitments in favour of expanding the use of fossil fuels.
Any opposition would come from the green wing of the Tory party, which admits it is disorganised and weak, with one environment minister saying the ostensibly large grouping has many MPs who “do fuck all and don’t give a shit”.
The attorney general, Suella Braverman, this weekend vowed to suspend net zero measures, saying: “In order to deal with the energy crisis we need to suspend the all-consuming desire to achieve net zero by 2050. If we keep it up, especially before businesses and families can adjust, our economy will end up with net zero growth.”
While she is not a frontrunner in the contest, there is a fear that any winning candidate could be forced to weaken their climate stance in order to gain the backing of her supporters.
Eco-friendly conservatives are concerned that she has joined forces with MP Steve Baker, who has denied the climate crisis is a pressing matter and wants to dismantle green policies. Instead, he favours expanding the use of gas and reinstating fracking.
The MP for Wycombe holds sway within the party’s right wing and commands the powerful Eurosceptic ERG group. His pugnacity during the EU negotiations led Baker to dub himself the “hardman of Brexit”. Another worry is that Kemi Badenoch, who is also running for leader on an “anti-woke” platform, also this weekend came out against net zero by 2050.
Meanwhile, the green wing of the party is still scrambling to fall behind an ecofriendly candidate, with nobody yet setting out a positive climate policy vision. A number of green conservatives have unenthusiastically mooted Nadhim Zahawi and Sajid Javid as potential contenders for their support. Javid and Jeremy Hunt both committed to keep the pledge when interviewed on Sunday morning.
Chris Skidmore, the chair of the environment all-party parliamentary group, is organising a climate hustings with the Conservative Environment Network (CEN) and trying to get candidates to sign up to net zero commitments.
He is pointing to the successful election of the Tees Valley mayor, Ben Houchen, who ran on a green jobs platform. Skidmore said: “MPs in the red wall know that the price of rowing back on net zero would be to pull the plug on economic regeneration in their seats.
“Thousands of jobs could be at stake. It would be economic and electoral madness to abandon net zero, which is why I am calling on every candidate to set out their plans to commit to the environment, nature and net zero.
“We will be holding hustings and ensuring that this contest does not put one of the Conservative party’s greatest achievements in recent years at risk”.
He is warning prospective candidates that while ditching climate commitments could play well to some of the Tory base, it would lose them the next general election.
“The Conservative party cannot afford to abandon the progress it has made on the environment and climate change over the past decade,” he said, adding that “polling has repeatedly shown that the party would pay the penalty at the next general election if we abandoned or watered down commitments to protect our environment” by up to “1.3m votes”.
Skidmore is confident that with the support of the 133 MPs in CEN, a green candidate could win. He thinks Baker’s support is a “mirage”, and notes that the net zero scrutiny group, which the MP co-founded, has only 20 supporters.
However, sources close to the Braverman campaign, with which Baker is helping, told the Guardian they had spoken to MPs in CEN to win them over to the anti-net zero cause, calling members of the group “windsocks”, adding that the argument for cheaper energy is powerful.
Zac Goldsmith, an environment minister and conservative peer, agrees that support for green measures among his colleagues could be at risk.
“There are loads of MPs in CEN, but most aren’t fighters,” he said. “Others sign up just so that they can tell their constituents they are members – but they do fuck all and don’t give a shit. Very few really care. I’m going to be fighting this very, very hard in the coming days and weeks.”
If net zero was ditched but then reinstated after a general election 2024, this would be too late to avoid the global temperature rise exceeding 1.5C, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC says in order to avoid climate catastrophe, we must reach peak fossil fuel use by 2025.
This week, the Green MP Caroline Lucas said she feared the climate could be put at risk by “Tory psychodrama”.
