The Green Bay Packers finally saw the light in the offseason, leading to them signing QB Aaron Rodgers to a four-year extension with $150.6 million guaranteed. Unfortunately for the team, they lost WR Davante Adams to the Raiders. The Packers need a wideout to step up and fill the void, but Green Bay doesn’t have another elite option on the roster. Their run game remains an area of strength with two viable players (Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon). After going 39-10 over the past three years, the Packers appear to be trending down, but Mr. Rodgers knows how to win games and make the players around him better.
Offense
The Packers played well defensively last year, and they had the lead in most games. Even so, Green Bay finished with below-average rushing attempts (26.2) while not gaining an edge in passing yards (266 YPG). Their offense runs through Rodgers, especially in the red zone.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers – click here for fantasy projections
Jordan Love
Love came to the NFL with size (6’4” and 225 pounds) and a strong arm. He’ll make easy deep throws with a flick of his wrist. Love sometimes has a looker feel as he waits for a player to break open. I expect him to succeed if given time to throw and surrounded by talented receivers. His decision-making and reads need improvement while having some concern with his accuracy.
I don’t like how he slides in the pocket on some rollout passes, leading to a longer transition time to unload the ball. Love will struggle to break free from a tight pocket under pressure while lacking the release to get the ball out quickly and on time.
Based on 2019, Love didn’t belong in the top college QB conversation. He passed for 3,402 yards with 20 touchdowns, but 17 of his throws ended up in the hands of his opponents. Love also rushed for 175 yards on 81 carries while failing to score on the ground.
View the original article to see embedded media.
His stock was trending up after his sophomore season (3,567 passing yards and 39 combined touchdowns). However, Love saw his yards per pass attempt fall from 8.6 to 7.2 in 2019.
In his first chance to see game action in 2021, Love brought a dull feel, leading to 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions on his 62 pass attempts. He gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt. As a result, Love moved to the backburner in the Packers’ quarterback plans after signing Rodgers to an extension.
Other Options: Danny Etling
Running Backs
Green Bay’s running backs finished with a similar opportunity in touches (488) as they did in 2020 (497), but they gained 201 fewer yards with a regression in rushing touchdowns (10) and yards per carry (4.4 – 4.9 in 2020). On the positive side, their backs scored eight times in the passing game.
Aaron Jones – click here for fantasy projections
A.J. Dillon
Despite an RB2 role for the Packers, Dillon gained 1,116 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 34 catches on 221 touches (13 per game). Green Bay gave him the best opportunity (65 touches) from Weeks 10-12 (315 combined yards with three touchdowns and 13 catches) while gaining only 3.6 yards per carry. Dillon scored seven of his eight touchdowns over his final nine matchups (including the postseason). He finished with better than expected results in the passing game (34/313/2).
Dillon has a fullback’s body (6’0” and 245 pounds) and the speed (4.53 40-yard dash) of a running back. His game is all about power. When asked to run up the middle, he drifts and weaves rather than drives and accelerates after the snap if faced with tight quarters. Dillion needs almost two full strides to hit top speed in the open field. If given daylight, his game plays well, gaining more yards after breaking arm tackles.
He shined in his freshman season (300/1589/14) at Boston College while losing some value in 2018 (1,149 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and eight catches on 235 touches. Dillon matched his early success (318/1685/14) in the run game while adding a few catches (13/195/1) in 2019.
Fantasy outlook: Dillon ranked 23rd in running back scoring (186.6) in PPR leagues while scoring 20 fantasy points or more in three matchups (26.8, 20 and 22.3). On his down days, he scored fewer than 9 fantasy points in nine games. Based on this, Dillon should naturally have a higher ceiling. With 250 touches, I expect him to gain 1,200 yards with a push to 10 scores with a floor of 25 catches. If Jones has an issue, Dillon moves to RB1 status. His ADP (71) ranks him as the 25th running back in the NFFC. He should be an excellent cheat RB2 in 2022.
Kylin Hill
After a breakout season in 2019 (1,530 combined yards with 11 touchdowns and 18 catches) at Mississippi State, Hill opted out in 2020 after three games. His season started slow on early downs (15/58), but he was more active in the passing game (23/237/1).
Last year with the Packers, he blew out his right knee (torn ACL) in October while offering no value in his eight games (39 combined yards with one catch on 11 touches).
Other Options: Patrick Taylor, Tyler Goodson, B.J. Baylor
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver opportunity increased in each of the past two seasons. They set three-year highs in catches (244), receiving yards (3,107) and targets (367) while matching 2020 in touchdowns (27). Their wideouts gained 69% of the Packers’ passing yards.
Allen Lazard – click here for fantasy projections
Amari Rodgers
Over four seasons at Clemson, Rodgers caught 181 passes for 2,144 yards and 15 touchdowns in 237 targets. He took advantage of his increased opportunity in 2020, leading to 77 catches for 1,020 yards and seven scores on 102 targets. In his career, Rodgers has an elite catch rate (76.3) while doing most of his work over the short areas of the field.
His game should rise to another level under the guidance of Aaron Rodgers. He gives Green Bay an open-field runner with the route running and hands to succeed out of the lot. His first challenge is improving his release vs. press coverage.
Green Bay had Rodgers on the field for only 103 snaps in his rookie season while gaining 56 yards on four catches.
Fantasy outlook: Fantasy drafters should have a circle next to Rodgers’s name in 2022. His college resume, paired with the loss of Adams, points to a breakout season. He has a possession skill set, giving him 100-catch upside with over 1,000 yards and some value in touchdowns. When doing my initial rankings, I will have Rodgers as the Packers’ WR1 despite his waiver wire ADP (296) in the NFFC.
Christian Watson
Over four seasons and 52 games at North Dakota State, Watson caught 105 passes for 2,140 yards and 14 touchdowns while gaining 20.4 yards per catch. His best success came in 2021 (43/801/7), highlighted by two matchups (5/163/1 and 4/106/1).
Watson earned his trip into the NFL by offering an excellent combination of size (6’5” and 210 pounds) and speed (4.36 – 40-yard dash). He is a hard worker, but much of his resume comes from big plays vs. weaker competition. His route running needs to improve to be more fantasy and pro-relevant early in his career. Watson does have an explosive gear with the ball in his hands.
Fantasy outlook: A deep threat with size can also become a viable scoring option in the red zone, giving Watson a high ceiling. The Packers should use him in a role similar to that of departed Marquez Valdes-Scantling over the past few years. He ranks 59th at wide receiver in the NFFC with an ADP of 155. At best, 40 catches for 600 yards with five scores, making Watson a challenging week-to-week start in fantasy leagues.
Randell Cobb
The luster of Cobb left the building after 2014 (91/1,287/12). Over the past two seasons, he missed 11 games, leading to two short years (38/441/3 and 28/375/5). His best fantasy value came in two matchups (5/69/2 and 4/95/1). Unfortunately, a groin issue cost Cobb the final five games.
Fantasy outlook: His experience with Aaron Rodgers is a plus, but Cobb is on the downside of his career. He has an upside of 60 catches for 600 yards with only a handful of touchdowns.
Sammy Watkins
The best two seasons by Watkins came in 2014 (65/982/6) and 2015 (60/1,047/9). Over the past four years, he picked up 156 catches for 2,007 and nine touchdowns on 249 targets, with his best output coming in 2019 (52/673/3). Watkins missed 18 games over this span.
Fantasy outlook: At age 29, Watkins may have another year in the tank while playing with a better quarterback. More of a follow than a fantasy investment, but I would be careful if he has a big game early in the year.
Romeo Doubs
Over four seasons at Nevada, Doubs caught 225 passes for 3,322 yards and 26 touchdowns over 357 targets. His highlight season (80/1,109/11) came in 2021. He brings strong hands, but Doubs has questions about his release and route running. His early success should come in stretching the field.
Fantasy outlook: There’s more here than meets the eye, but Doubs will need time to develop. Possible second-half player.
Other Options: Juwann Winfree, Malik Taylor, Samori Toure
Tight Ends
The Packers had a sharp decline in scoring (four touchdowns – 14 in 2020) from their tight ends last year, partly due to an injury to Robert Tonyan. Their targets (96, 101, 95) have been in a tight range over the previous three seasons, with a floor of 63 catches and 700 receiving yards.
Robert Tonyan
After a breakthrough season in 2020 (52/586/11 on 59 targets), Tonyan failed to live up to his draft expectations over eight games (18/204/2 on 29 targets) in 2021. His only value came in two matchups (3/52/1 and 4/63/1). He suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in late October.
Fantasy outlook: With only 3.6 targets over his last 24 games, Tonyan may have more risk than reward in 2022. His ADP is 186 in the NFFC in the early draft season, as the 24th tight end off the board. I don’t trust his chances, and his scoring in 2020 doesn’t look repeatable after coming off a significant injury.
Josiah Deguara
Over his final two seasons at Cincinnati in college, Deguara caught 77 combined passes for 972 yards and 12 touchdowns with similar success in both years (38/468/5 and 39/504/7). He gained over 50 yards in just three games (4/53/1, 5/64, 2/76/1). The best game of his college career came in 2018 against Connecticut (5/112/1).
Deguara shines as a run-blocker with a chance to surprise in the passing game. His route running isn’t ideal, requiring additional head fakes to create space. His passing success will come more on dump-off passes after a play breaks down.
His season ended mid-October in 2020 due to a torn ACL in his left knee. Last year, Deguara caught 25 of his 33 targets for 245 yards and two touchdowns, with one game of value (3/66/1).
Fantasy outlook: The Packers may use Deguara as their lead tight end early in the year. His ceiling doesn’t look impactful, but Rodgers will use his tight ends in the red zone.
Other Options: Marcedes Lewis, Tyler Davis, Dominique Dafney
Kicker
Mason Crosby
Crosby’s 15th season with the Packers, was his worst success in field goal attempts (25-for-34 – 73.5%). He missed four of his 13 kicks from 30-39 yards and four of his eight chances from 40-49 yards, pointing to job loss risk. Crosby made 13 of his 17 chances from long range over the past four years.
Fantasy outlook: His leg tends to be hot and cold, meaning Crosby would be a kicker I would avoid in fantasy leagues this season if he retains his job. At best, Crosby offers matchup value.
Coaching
Matt LaFleur took over as the head coach of the Packers in 2019 after spending the previous two seasons running the Rams and Titans offenses. LaFleur is the first coach in NFL history to begin his head coaching career with three straight 13-3 seasons, winning the NFC North each season. He has six years of experience in the NFL as a quarterbacks coach. His best success came in 2016, helping Matt Ryan and the Falcons reach the Super Bowl.
Adam Stenavich earns his first offensive coordinator job after working in the Packers’ system over the previous three seasons as their offensive line and run game coordinator. His other two years of experience came with the 49ers.
The Packers slipped to 10th in points scored (450) and yards allowed.
Joe Barry returns for a second season as Green Bay’s defensive coordinator. Over the previous three years, he worked in the Rams’ system (assistant head coach and linebackers coach). In addition, Barry ran the Lions’ and Redskins’ defense over four seasons while having 20 years of coaching experience in the NFL.
Their defense repeated their ranking in points allowed (371 – 13th) and yards allowed (ninth).
View the original article to see embedded media.
Free Agency
Green Bay lost LB Za’Darius Smith, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, G Lucas Patrick and LB Oren Burks to free agency for the mere sum of $85 million. Their top additions were P Pat O’Donnell, DT Jarren Reed and WR Sammy Watkins.
Draft
The Packers invested their two first-round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft on a pair of defensive players from Georgia (LB Quay Walker and DT Devonte Wyatt). They addressed their offense with the next four selections – WR Christian Watson (2.2), OL Sean Rhyan (3.28), WR Romeo Doubs (4.27) and OL Zach Tom (4.35). Green Bay added OT Rasheed Walker and WR Samori Toure in the seventh round. The other three players (LB Kingsley Enagbare, S Tariq Carpenter and DT Jonathan Ford) hopefully upgraded the depth in defense.
Offensive Line
Green Bay averaged 4.3 yards per rush, leading to a drop to 18th in rushing yards (1,900) with 13 rushing touchdowns. The Packers averaged 26.2 rushes per game with seven carries over 20 yards.
The Packers inched up to ninth in passing yards (4,526) with 39 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. They gained 7.6 yards per pass attempt with 61 plays over 20 yards and 14 catches over 40 yards. Their offensive line allowed only 33 sacks.
LT David Bakhtiari ended up playing only one game last season after a slow recovery from a torn ACL in his left knee. When healthy, he has been one of the better players at his position, with his best value coming in pass protection. Green Bay needs improved play at the guard position, which may come from multiple players. C Josh Myers missed 11 games in his rookie season with a knee injury. RT Elgton Jenkins filled in at left tackle for eight games in 2021 while also tearing his ACL in late November.
This offensive line has a risk/reward feel due to the number of players coming off injuries. This season, Rodgers needs a longer passing window to improve his passing potential.
Defense
Green Bay bumped to 11th in rushing yards allowed (1,855) with 13 touchdowns and eight runs over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 4.7 yards per rush, with 23.2 rushing attempts per game.
The Packers dipped to 10th in passing yards allowed (3,724) while allowing 31 touchdowns with interceptions (18). Quarterbacks gained 6.7 yards per pass attempt with 15 completions over 40 yards. Their defense picked up 39 sacks.
Their top cornerback (Jaire Alexander) missed 13 games in 2021 with a shoulder issue, giving Green Bay three assets in the secondary. Quay Walker and Rashan Gary offer the highest ceiling at linebacker. DT Kenny Clark lost his way defending the run last year, an area of strength in past seasons. The Packers need DE Devonte Wyatt to hit the ground running in his rookie year.
Green Bay has coverage talent, but they need to improve against the run and replace some lost sacks. They have enough pieces to their defense to rank in the top 12 in 2022.
