The deaths of as many as 500 people feared drowned in the sinking of an overcrowded fishing boat off southern Greece have once more thrown a spotlight on the world’s deadliest migratory route – and Europe’s failure to tackle one of its greatest challenges.
Since the International Organization for Migration (IoM) launched its missing migrants project in 2014, an estimated 27,000 people trying to reach Europe have been recorded as dead or disappeared while trying to cross the Mediterranean.
More than 21,000 of those deaths have occurred on the so-called central Mediterranean route from Libya or Tunisia north to Greece or Italy, a crossing that can take several days and is often made in unseaworthy, dangerously overloaded boats.
Most migrants to Greece now cross from Turkey, either reaching the eastern Greek islands by boat or crossing the Evros River along the land border – and their number has fallen sharply since Athens stepped up sea patrols and built a border fence.
Because the trek up to western or northern Europe from Greece also involves an often arduous crossing of the Balkans, many migrants now seek to bypass Greece.
Instead, the vast majority now head for Italy, which has recorded 55,160 “irregular” arrivals in Europe so far this year – more than double the number in 2022 – mostly from Ivory Coast, Egypt, Guinea, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
The central Mediterranean route is, meanwhile, becoming deadlier. According to an IoM report in April, at least 441 people drowned making the crossing between January and March this year, the deadliest three-month period since 2017.
A further 600 who attempted the crossing in April and May are known to be dead or missing, bringing the total this year to at least 1,039 before Wednesday’s deaths. The real figure, given that many sinkings are never recorded, is believed to be far higher.
The IoM has pointed the finger – although without naming names – at some Mediterranean governments, where state-led search and rescue (SAR) operations have been delayed and NGO-operated vessels obstructed.
Italy has imposed severe restrictions and even impounded humanitarian vessels, while Greece faces multiple allegations that it pushes people back to Turkey, illegally preventing them from claiming asylum, something Athens has consistently denied.
Overall, the number of people trying to reach Europe remains well down on its 2015-2016 peak, thanks in part to a 2016 EU deal with Turkey and a much-criticised 2017 arrangement with Libya that in effect outsources rescues to the Libyan coastguard.
But the number is climbing – and with anti-immigration sentiment and political pressure on the rise across the continent, the question remains one of the EU’s biggest problems, with member states profoundly divided.
Southern “frontline” states have long borne the brunt; wealthier northern “destination” states are often reluctant to share the burden; and hardline central and eastern ones (such as Hungary and Poland) have refused to accept any such refugees at all.
After years of bickering, EU leaders last week announced a breakthrough in negotiations for a new migration and asylum pact, including charges of €20,000 (£17,200) a head for member countries that refuse to host refugees.
The bloc agreed that member states, rather than the EU as a whole, would determine which countries were considered “safe” for migrants turned away because they were ineligible for asylum, giving member states greater individual flexibility.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has also said the bloc was considering providing more than €1bn (£850m) in aid for Tunisia to rescue state finances and help deal with its migration crisis.
Many critics, however, argue that little genuine progress has been made on creating safe and legal routes for asylum seekers to Europe, with too much recent emphasis on restricting asylum applications and criminalising SAR activities.
“Every lost life is a tragedy,” Maria Clara Martin, UNHCR’s representative in Greece, said on Thursday. “These deaths could have been avoided by creating more safe means of entry for people forced to flee conflicts and persecution.”
Gianluca Rocco, the IoM’s head of mission in Greece, said it was “urgent to have concrete and coordinated action from states to save lives at sea, and to reduce dangerous journeys by increasing safe and regular migration routes”.
The underlying causes pushing so many to come to Europe – war, natural disasters, the climate crisis, poverty, inequality and food insecurity – will not be going away anytime soon.
