Scientists thought Great Barrier Reef doomed if global temperatures rise 1.5C – but a new study finds hope

Projections about the Great Barrier Reef’s future have previously concentrated on the impact of heat without considering ways some corals and reefs can adapt to temperatures, according to Prof Peter Mumby, one of the lead authors of the new research from the University of Queensland. Photograph: By Wildestanimal/Getty Images

The Great Barrier Reef will undergo “rapid coral decline” until 2050 but could recover if global heating is kept below 2C, according to the most detailed modelling so far of the future of the world’s biggest coral reef.

The finding contradicts a widely held view that the decline of the oceanic gem would become irreversible as global temperatures rise above 1.5C, with one report last month suggesting the world’s tropical corals had already reached a tipping point of long-term decline.