The Green Party has swept to victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, snatching what was one of Labour’s safest seats and delivering a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer.
Labour, which held the seat until the constituency’s former MP Andrew Gwynne stepped down for health reasons, came in third in the vote, behind Nigel Farage’s Reform in second place.
Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and Green party councillor, was elected as the party’s first MP in northern England after securing 40.7 per cent of the vote, and a 4,402-vote majority.
Reform UK, with candidate Matt Goodwin, won 28.7 per cent with 10,578 votes, while Labour lagged behind on 25.4 per cent with 9,364 votes.
In an her victory speech, Ms Spencer said people were being “bled dry” and were “sick of our hard work making other people rich”.
The 34-year-old, who becomes the Green Party’s fifth MP, praised her party’s “hopeful campaign” and said “we have shown that we don’t have to accept being turned against each other”.
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How did the vote share change from 2024?
The Green Party came third in Gorton and Denton at the 2024 general election, winning 13.2 per cent of the vote. Reform UK came in second place with 14.1 per cent, but Labour secured a comfortable victory with over half the vote (50.8 per cent).
Just two years later, this has all changed. Labour’s vote share plummeted in the constituency, dropping by exactly half to 25.4 per cent while the Reform’s share grew 14.6 points, up to 28.7 per cent.
9,191
drop in Labour’s vote count compared to 2024
drop in Labour’s vote count compared to 2024
But it would be the Greens who recorded the major victory, more than tripling its vote share to 40.6 per cent. This marks a massive 26.4 per cent swing from Labour to the Greens at the ballot box, in a landslide result.
It represents the sixth largest Labour majority to be overturned at a by-election since the Second World War.
Turnout was very similar to the 2024 election, at 47.6 per cent – down just 0.2 per cent. This is still lower than the average in 2024, which was 59.7 per cent (and the lowest figure since 2001.)
How does the result compare to national polls?
Current national polling puts Reform as the most popular party, on 24 points to Labour’s 18, according to the latest YouGov figures. The Conservatives have also surged back to 18 points in the polls, while the Greens are slightly behind on 17.
But these figures were not reflected in the result in Gorton and Denton last night. The by-election was perhaps the surest sign yet that the two ‘big’ traditional parties can no longer count on their safest seats remaining in their favour as Reform and the Greens continue to gather support.
Most MRP polls released before the by-election continued to put Reform and Labour ahead in Gorton and Denton but these are calculated factors like on national polling picture, demographics and previous results. This means too much weight may have been given to Reform’s national polling and Labour’s incumbent status.
One of the only constituency-level surveys carried out before the by-election by pollster Omnisis released last week put the Greens slightly ahead in the seat for the first time. But at 33 per cent of the vote, this still fell short of the landslide final result.
Who were the biggest losers from the night?
Alongside Labour’s massive loss, both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats saw their support in the area – already limited – drop further.
706
the Conservatives’ final vote count
the Conservatives’ final vote count
The Conservatives came fourth, with just 1.9 per cent share and 706 votes, marking a six point drop from 2024 in a record loss for the party. The figures make this the Conservatives worst ever by-election defeat.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats came fifth, with 1.8 per cent and 653 votes (minus two points).
These dire results for the UK’s second and third largest parties (in terms of members of parliament) mean neither will see their £500 deposit to run returned, having secured less than five per cent of votes.
Amongst the other candidates running, the Official Monster Raving Looney Party candidate Sir Oink-a-lot, who polled 159, beat Advance UK's Nick Buckley MBE by four votes.
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