ANALYSIS — Despite a recent setback by the U.S. Supreme Court’s upholding of the new Republican-drawn map in Texas, the House majority remains within reach for Democrats.
From historical midterm trends that favor the party out of power to President Donald Trump’s mediocre job-approval rating to consistent Democratic overperformances in this year’s special and regular general elections, the current national political environment favors Democrats. And heading into the 2026 midterm elections, it’s clear the terrain is shifting toward the party at the district level as well.
As a result, Inside Elections has changed the ratings in 16 House races toward Democrats.
In the race for Tennessee’s 7th District, the rating got better for Republicans. The Dec. 2 special election had been rated Lean Republican, but now-Rep. Matt Van Epps’ 9-point victory is comfortable enough to warrant a Solid Republican race rating for the regularly scheduled election next year.
Still, the outcome was mixed news for the GOP as Democrats overperformed once again — in line with other elections this year — demonstrating a shift in the House battlefield.
Having to spend a few million dollars defending a district where Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 22 points is just the latest piece of evidence that Republicans could have trouble defending seats carried by the Democratic presidential nominee last year, including Nebraska’s 2nd (which Harris won by 5 points). With GOP Rep. Don Bacon retiring, Democrats have a better shot this cycle at flipping this Omaha-area district.
Another is California’s redrawn 48th, which includes parts of San Diego and Riverside counties, and would have backed Harris by 3 points. It’s one of the most evenly divided in the country (D+0.1), according to Inside Elections’ Baseline metric, which captures a seat’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the past four election cycles into a single score. But Republican incumbent Darrell Issa’s private consideration to move halfway across the country to run in Texas is an indication of how confident he feels about running in the 48th next year.
Inside Elections shifted the rating in both races from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.
Another trio of GOP-held seats moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga hasn’t officially announced whether he’ll run again, but southwest Michigan’s 4th District, which Trump carried by 6 points in 2024 and 4 points in 2020, is the type of seat that is likely to get more competitive as the cycle goes on.
GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is a proven winner in Southeast Pennsylvania’s 1st District. But Joe Biden finished ahead of Trump by 5 points here in 2020, and Fitzpatrick won reelection by just 2 points against a mediocre challenger in 2018, Trump’s first midterm.
Virginia’s 1st District went from a Trump +5 seat in 2024 (an improvement from four years earlier) to one Democrat Abigail Spanberger carried by 3 points in last month’s race for governor. It could also get redrawn by commonwealth Democrats next year to become bluer, so Republican incumbent Rob Wittman remains vulnerable.
Two more Republican-held seats were added to the House battleground in the latest round of rating changes, moving from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Trump finished ahead of Harris by a considerable 13 points in Florida’s 7th District, but Rep. Cory Mills has a growing list of legal and ethical problems that make the seat uniquely vulnerable. And in Tennessee’s 5th District, which is less Republican than the neighboring 7th, Democrats have a candidate with a more moderate reputation, and GOP incumbent Andy Ogles is apparently choosing to not raise much money ahead of a likely competitive race.
On the other side of the ledger, more than a handful of Democratic-held seats are looking increasingly out of reach for Republicans in the face of the national environment and some recruiting challenges.
The GOP hasn’t given up on central Michigan’s 8th District. But the race rating shifted from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic as Republicans work to bolster their challenger while admitting that Democratic freshman Kristen McDonald Rivet is a formidable foe, despite her brief time on Capitol Hill.
Another trio of races for Democratic-held seats have fallen out of the top rating tiers and the general conversation about competitive seats: Minnesota’s 2nd, where Rep. Angie Craig is running for the Senate; Nevada’s 4th, held by fifth-term Rep. Steven Horsford; and Ohio’s 13th. Republicans don’t even have a serious candidate in the latter contest after their 2024 nominee dropped out when the district unexpectedly got better for Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes under a new congressional map. The rating in all three races shifted from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
A handful of races have dropped off of the House battlefield altogether, with the rating shifting from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic.
While Republicans have no love for Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen in northwest Illinois’ 17th District, they just don’t seem to have a clear plan to beat him in 2026. The party is also struggling to find credible challengers against Reps. Hillary Scholten (Michigan’s 3rd), Pat Ryan (New York’s 18th), John Mannion (New York’s 22nd) and Janelle Bynum (Oregon’s 5th).
Even with the latest rating changes, the fight for the House continues to look close on paper. Republicans have the advantage in 213 races (rated Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt), while Democrats hold the edge in 212 contests. Remember, 218 is the magic number for a majority. There are 10 Toss-up races — eight seats currently held by Republicans and just two by Democrats.
But as election results align with historical trends, and the calendar creeps closer to Election Day, the House landscape is likely to skew toward Democrats.
If Trump can improve his job-approval ratings and there’s growing optimism about the direction of the country and strength of the economy, Republicans can regain some momentum in their quest to maintain House control.
For now, though, it looks like we’re headed for a traditional midterm in which the president’s party loses seats.
Here’s a look at the latest ratings changes by Inside Elections:
1 new rating is better for Republicans
- Tennessee’s 7th (Matt Van Epps, R): was Lean Republican for special election, now Solid Republican.
16 races moved toward Democrats
- California’s 48th (Darrell Issa, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
- Florida’s 7th (Cory Mills, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- Illinois’ 17th (Eric Sorensen, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
- Michigan’s 3rd (Hillary Scholten, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
- Michigan’s 4th (Bill Huizenga, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- Michigan’s 8th (Kristen McDonald Rivet, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
- Minnesota’s 2nd (Open; Angie Craig, DFL): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Nebraska’s 2nd (Open; Don Bacon, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
- Nevada’s 4th (Steven Horsford, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- New York’s 18th (Pat Ryan, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
- New York’s 22nd (John Mannion, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
- Ohio’s 13th (Emilia Sykes, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Oregon’s 5th (Janelle Bynum, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
- Pennsylvania’s 1st (Brian Fitzpatrick, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
- Tennessee’s 5th (Andy Ogles, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- Virginia’s 1st (Rob Wittman, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
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