ANALYSIS — Despite a recent setback by the U.S. Supreme Court’s upholding of the new Republican-drawn map in Texas, the House majority remains within reach for Democrats.
From historical midterm trends that favor the party out of power to President Donald Trump’s mediocre job-approval rating to consistent Democratic overperformances in this year’s special and regular general elections, the current national political environment favors Democrats. And heading into the 2026 midterm elections, it’s clear the terrain is shifting toward the party at the district level as well.
As a result, Inside Elections has changed the ratings in 16 House races toward Democrats.
