Bookmakers and bettors took sides ahead of the U.S. Open, overwhelmingly backing PGA Tour golfers over those who joined the new Saudi-backed LIV Golf league.
And they were vindicated after the first round concluded Thursday at Brookline Country Club in Massachusetts.
The 15 LIV Golf entrants, including Phil Mickelson, combined to shoot 53-over par. Only one of those players, Dustin Johnson, finished the day ranked within the top 14.
Tipico Sportsbook opened Johnson as a 30/1 longshot to win before the tournament began. Following his 2-under-par 68, he’s become a 20/1 sixth choice. He sits behind favored vocal LIV Golf critic Rory McIlroy (+550), PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas (+900), defending U.S. Open champion Jon Rahm (+1000), Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (+1300) and another 2-under player, Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1500).
McIlroy, 33, said earlier this week some of his peers who pursued the lavish LIV Golf compensation — backed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who, according to the U.S. government, authorized the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 — likely did so because “their best days are behind them.”
McIlroy talked the talk and then walked the walk during Thursday’s opening round, shooting a 3-under 67 to stand in a five-way tie for second place behind leader Adam Hadwin (21/1) of Canada at -4.
McIlroy’s knock was aimed mostly at six-time major winner Mickelson, who started as a staggering 200/1 longshot to win this weekend and finds himself in danger of being cut Friday after his opening-round 8-over 78. Mickelson, 52, also finished distantly in last week’s inaugural LIV Golf event, behind fellow Masters winner Charl Schwartzel, 37.
As for the other LIV Golf members near their peak, including Johnson and big-driving Bryson DeChambeau, McIlroy said: “That’s where it feels like you’re taking the easy way out.”
DeChambeau was +1 and is cast as an 85/1 longshot.
The LIV Golf backlash and slumping performances from many of the golfers participating in that tour led bookmakers to establish McIlroy, Thomas and Scheffler as favorites to win the U.S. Open. Bettors embraced that decision by making those three players the leaders in total tickets and dollars wagered at Caesars Sportsbook.
Rahm generated five wagers of at least $1,000 before posting his 1-under 69 Thursday, and PGA players Will Zalatoris, Cameron Smith and Sam Burns were top-five plays at Caesars. A Nevada bettor placed a $3,000 wager on Burns with potential winnings of $54,000.
Oddsmakers certainly accounted for the feuding between PGA and LIV Golf players. Still, Caesars Sportsbook lead golf trader Anthony Sallerori said he was stunned watching Johnson fall from an opening 25/1 to 40/1 at Caesars before he teed off Thursday.
“He is out of public favor at the moment, that’s just how it stands,” Sallerori said.
Unrelenting criticism of LIV Golf moved two-time U.S. Open champion Brooks Koepka, whose brother, Chase, played in last week’s LIV stop, to criticize journalists for asking hard questions that he said formed “a black cloud” over the event.
“I’m tired of the conversations. I’m tired of all this stuff,” Koepka said.
Thus, the PGA-LIV rivalry opened earnestly, with the PGA loyalists headed by McIlroy yearning to flex their superiority over those who fled.
MORE: How LIV Golf players fared during the first round of the U.S. Open
A betting battle
Oddsmakers were quick to identify LIV players’ uphill battle in the U.S. Open by first making Johnson the ninth favorite to win and attaching a slew of longshot 80/1-and-beyond tags on others, including Talor Gooch, Sergio Garcia, Kevin Na and Patrick Reed, who each finished over par Thursday.
At one point late Thursday afternoon, the 15 LIV Golf players were a combined +54 — an uncanny occurrence tied to the 54 entrants who play in LIV’s 54-hole tournaments.
Golf, by its nature, is tense. Adding in personal beefs fanned by widespread criticism and a new rivalry transforms this U.S. Open Father’s Day tradition into an unprecedented, must-see event.
Despite the distaste for Johnson’s LIV Golf defection, veteran golf journalist Thomas Bonk saw him as a viable contender even before his first round justified the opinion.
“Dustin is uniquely suited to play in an Open at Brookline,” Bonk said. “He can hit the ball straight and putt.”
As Mickelson played to muted support from Thursday’s crowd, Bonk said he didn’t expect the pressure and criticism to crack the LIV Golf players because “golfers are pretty insular in their thinking.”
But with the stiffness of the course and the hard feelings palpable, Bonk surmised, “Being nerveless here will help.”
Golfweek’s Adam Schupak said the dynamic of the players’ friction is less of an issue than the shoddy results Johnson, Mickelson and Reed displayed prior to Brookline.
“Most of the LIV golfers haven’t shown much form on the PGA Tour of late,” Schupak said. “Johnson, other than a stellar performance at last year’s Ryder Cup, has been a shadow of the player who won the 2020 Masters.
“But nothing rattles D.J. Same goes for Patrick Reed, who seems to thrive when he’s the center of controversy.”
A worthwhile wager
Respected golf handicapper Rufus Peabody ran all of the entrants through a battery of more than 100,000 simulations and said Johnson is a 43/1 underdog.
“Whether you can find a good bet depends on the price you can find,” Peabody said cryptically because he likes to keep his picks to himself.
Schupak named 30/1 choice Burns (+1), reigning PGA player of the year and FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay (+2) and 39/1 Max Homa (-1) as his three pre-tournament favorites to win. Burns has won three PGA events this season, including two weeks ago. Homa has won twice.
“My top choice is the under-appreciated Burns … he currently ranks No. 9 in the world, possesses a complete game and is just starting to come into his own,” Schupak said. “He watched his best friend, Scottie Scheffler, win the Masters in April and he’s thinking: ‘Why not me?’
“Homa is another player who is riding a hot hand. He has the iron play and putting ability to be a factor in a major. When he gets in the hunt, he’s shown he knows how to find the winner’s circle. Cantlay has been an enigma at majors with just two top-10 finishes in 21 starts in majors, but I’m still convinced it’s a matter of when, not if, he’s going to win a major.”
Bonk sided with Collin Morikawa (-1), who’s now 20/1 at Tipico.
Following the U.S. Open, the LIV Golf players will part from their former brethren again to next play in Portland, Oregon June 30.
U.S. betting shops, including Tipico, have yet to receive approval from multiple state gambling regulators to offer betting on the LIV Golf tour, although it is allowed in Nevada and Arizona.
“Being a new league is part of it, but with the Saudi impact, I don’t think (regulators) like the look of it, either,” Tipico spokesman Sunny Gupta said. “It seems like there’s the potential for (states) to take an arbitrary stance on this because of the Saudis.”
Gupta said the only thing Tipico’s New Jersey and Colorado regulators have said is LIV Golf betting is “still under review.”
“I understand why they wouldn’t be ready for the first stop (last week in London), but I’d be shocked if it won’t go through for the next time,” Gupta said.
In lieu of that, Tipico and other shops are offering head-to-head and four-versus-four proposition betting matchups pitting PGA players against the LIV Golf entrants. At BetMGM, for instance, Johnson was an even-money underdog versus -120 favorite Hideki Matsuyama.
Johnson birdied No. 17 Thursday to edge Matsuyama by two strokes, creeping within the lead.
As for the staying power of the PGA-LIV rivalry, Bonk said he isn’t sure how long the fire, and verbal strife, will burn.
“Unless Dustin Johnson wins,” he said.
