Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs’ chief global equity strategist, told clients in early August that technology stocks might not have a valuation problem. Instead, they might have an earnings problem. In a note published Thursday, he came back with the receipts.
The new report, titled “Competition for Capital,” doesn’t back off the August thesis. It hardens it, tying the risk of an AI-driven “earnings bubble” to a specific mechanism, a specific historical stress test, and a specific near-term trigger that he says is already showing up in this month’s bond-market turbulence. He still won’t say that this bubble definitely exists. But six weeks after first raising the possibility, the hedge is now backed by capex-to-cash-flow data, record credit issuance, and a downgraded near-term outlook on stocks.
