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Fortune

Greg McKenna

Goldman Sachs’ chief economist just downgraded the entire U.S. economy as Trump’s latest tariff salvo rattles markets

Jan Hatzius Goldman Sachs United States Donald Trump Economy GDP Inflation

A man wearing a Trump hat and shirt, along with his red trading uniform, looks to his right on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. (Credit: Spencer Platt—Getty Images)

Goldman’s GDP growth projection for 2025 now sits at 1.7%, down from 2.4% at the start of the year. That’s because the firm now sees the average U.S. tariff rate rising by 10 basis points this year, twice Goldman’s previous forecast and about five times as high as the increase during Trump’s first term.

President Donald Trump’s tariff salvos have deeply rattled a stock market previously bullish about his supposedly pro-growth agenda. With recession fears mounting, a widely respected economist at Goldman Sachs has decided to downgrade the entire U.S. economy.

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