Less than a year after critics were calling for David Solomon to step down from Goldman Sachs, the once maligned investment bank is now considered a “big success” under its CEO, according to an analyst note.
Shares of Goldman Sachs are up about 21% year- to-date and have gained nearly 53% since the end of October, according to a July 7 research note from Devin Ryan, managing director and senior research analyst at Citizens JMP. This beats the S&P 500, which has risen about 17% so far this year and is up 33% since October.
Goldman’s global banking & markets, or GBM, unit has gained more market share than any large bank peer, while the bank has significantly grown its durable revenue streams. The stock has appreciated 106% since Solomon's first day as CEO on October 1, 2018, Ryan said in the note.
Goldman has increased market share for global banking and markets by about 350 basis points, which Ryan said is the biggest gain in its peer group. Ryan declared that the “David Solomon era” at Goldman was a big success and boosted his price target to $525 from $460, according to the note. On Tuesday, Goldman’s stock closed up nearly 2% to $473.49 while Its market cap stood at about $153 billion.
Goldman has suffered through some very public bumps. The investment bank reorganized in 2022 and stepped back from its foray into consumer banking. This led to the sale of specialty lender Greensky to Sixth Street and the departure of Stephanie Cohen, a key Solomon lieutenant and once one of the most powerful women at Goldman. (The move into consumer banking was costly. Goldman in January 2023 disclosed that it had lost about $3 billion tied to the business, according to the New York Times.)
Goldman also laid off thousands of workers last year as the investment bank, a well-known M&A advisor, dealt with the continued slowdown in deals. Then, there was the negative press which quoted Goldman’s normally closed-mouth partners complaining about Solomon’s hard driving personality and his side hustle as DJ.
“To be clear, every step wasn’t perfect (e.g., consumer business retrenchment), but when looking at the execution in totality, the past handful of years have been a big success by our measure,” Ryan said in an email to Fortune.
Many people missed the underlying momentum of Goldman’s key businesses, Ryan said. This includes leading market share gains in global banking & markets, rapid fundraising, and broader growth within its asset & wealth management unit, which was much stronger than the results reflected given the abnormally challenging operating environment in 2022 and 2023, Ryan said.
Alternatives to be major Goldman driver
“As the operating environment begins to recover, the market is waking up to the firm’s potential today (also reflected in the current record share price), and we still see more room from here as we expect GBM market share gains will continue and for the AWM segment to experience a sharp acceleration in earnings as market conditions improve and recently raised alternative assets increasingly earn management and incentive fees at high margins,” Ryan noted.
Ryan expects the investment bank’s asset & wealth management business to contribute more to Goldman’s top and bottom lines, according to the note. Goldman’s alternatives platform, which includes private equity and private credit, is also anticipated to be a major driver, he said. Goldman has raised $265 billion in Alts AUM since 2019, bringing firmwide Alts AUM to about $500 billion, Ryan said. (Goldman Alts AUM was $456 billion as of Sept. 30, 2023, according to the firm’s website.)"Goldman Sachs has been a great story over the past several years, and we still see runway ahead as the capital markets ‘normalize’ and the value of its Asset & Wealth Management business becomes more evident to the market as earnings power accelerates materially,” Ryan said in the note.
