Hours after the Golden Globes were done and dusted for another year, the next round of nominations for the all-important Oscars precursor, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, were announced.
Globe winners Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin – received the top SAG nomination for best cast, joining nominees Everything Everywhere All at Once and Women Talking.
Three-hour epic Babylon rounded out the top five, but neither Margot Robbie nor Brad Pitt received a best actor nod, which is worth noting given the SAGs are “more predictive than the Globes”.
“Many in the greater Hollywood awards complex see the Golden Globes as essential to the Oscar machine, greasing the skids on the way to the big night,” writes film industry website IndieWire.
The SAGs’ film and television nominating committee of 4200 (with a total peer-group membership of 160,000 who can vote) is seen as more mainstream than the Academy’s actors’ branch of 1302 (the largest Oscar voting group) out of its 9500 members.
And with just 96 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association who hand out the Globes, it’s no wonder the entertainment awards season of 28 different ceremonies leading up to the 95th Academy Awards is a complex game of chess.
The New York Film Critics Circle dinner and the Critics Choice Awards see the big stars prepare for one last sprint before Oscar nominations voting opens on Thursday (Friday AEDT).
By all accounts, the SAG Awards, with winners announced on January 26, have a reputation for being the strongest predictor for the holy grail that is an Oscar, closely watched because actors form the largest group that will also vote for the Academy Awards on March 12.
Let’s break it down.
Tweet from @goldenglobes
Visuals are everything
Within 48 hours of the live Globes broadcast on NBC (and on streaming service Stan in Australia), voting opened for Oscar nominations, closing on January 17, with nominations announced on January 24.
Over the past 27 years, 79 of the 108 Oscar winners in the four acting races first collected SAG Awards.
With a success rate of 73 per cent, this indicates a strong trend for Oscar winners.
But, and here’s the but. Despite SAG Awards uncannily mirroring Oscars, a Globes winner does get some “forward momentum”, according to IndieWire.
“A great speech can go viral on social media and propel [actors, films] into contention. Academy voters look at the videos, if not the show,” it wrote after the Globes.
Take, for example, Everything Everywhere All at Once. It was nominated for best film (losing to The Fabelmans) but its stars Michelle Yeoh, 60, and Ke Huy Quan, 51, won best actress and best supporting actor awards and their speeches went viral on social media.
Both delivered powerful, heart-felt anecdotes, recounting their years of being overlooked in Hollywood and finding success later in life. Quan thanked Spielberg, referencing his being cast on Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom with Harrison Ford as a kid.
Cate Blanchett won a Globe for best actress for her role playing orchestra conductor Lydia Tar in Tar, but she now finds herself in the same SAG category with Yeoh.
Whoever wins the SAG, they’d have to be a strong contender for a best actress Oscar.
All up, the film received five SAG nominations – Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu also got a nod – and the film is now building a “mighty head of steam” to the Oscars.
Tweet from @MediumSizeMeech
The Banshees of Inisherin
Banshees, the story of feuding friends on a remote island off the coast of Ireland, also received five SAG nominations for best film, lead actor Colin Farrell and supporting cast Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon.
The film won three Golden Globes, taking home best comedy or musical film and best screenplay for Martin McDonagh (who also directed), as well as best comedy actor for its star, Irish actor Farrell.
Unexpected victories in the cast category (ie best film) for Coda (2021) and Parasite (2020) at the SAG awards eventually led to their best picture Oscar success.
The same could be said for Banshees.
Tweet from @goldenglobes
The Fabelmans
The Golden Globe winner for best film drama and best director for Spielberg, The Fabelmans earned a SAG nomination for the top movie and for lead actor Paul Dano.
The coming-of-age story was inspired by Spielberg’s life as a teenager facing family strife and anti-Semitism.
Michelle Williams and Judd Hirsch were snubbed.
Spielberg is now tied with Clint Eastwood, Milos Forman, Martin Scorsese and Oliver Stone as the second-most awarded director in Globe history.
“The presumptive frontrunner since its premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, The Fabelmans has bounced back in a significant way,” writes Variety.
Babylon
Composer Justin Hurwitz took home the only Golden Globe win for Hollywood saga, with Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie both nominated in the acting categories.
This was Hurwitz’s third Globe for original score following La La Land (2016), for which he won an Oscar, and First Man (2018), for which he didn’t.
The film was nominated for best comedy or musical but lost out to Banshees of Inisherin.
It is the last of the five SAG nominations for best film, but Globe nominees Robbie and Pitt did not get a mention.
Women Talking
Oscar predictor website Gold Derby reported its subscribers welcomed the inclusion of Women Talking into the SAG ensemble cast category, lamenting the snubbing of Glass Onion (which was nominated for a Globe).
Sarah Polley was nominated for best screenplay in the Globes but lost out to Banshees.
Does it have the legs to get an Oscar nomination for best film or best screenplay off the back of a SAG nomination?
The last woman to win for her screenplay was Diana Ossana for Brokeback Mountain in 2006, reported Gold Derby, adding that Polley was also a Best Adapted Screenplay Academy Award nominee in 2008 for Away From Her.
It lost to Best Picture winner No Country for Old Men from Joel and Ethan Coen.
Big winner is Netflix
In a new deal, the SAG Awards will be broadcast live on Netflix’s YouTube channel, following on from Australia’s Stan broadcast of the Golden Globes on Tuesday.
The streaming giant managed to get Hustle star Adam Sandler, Ana De Armas for Blonde and Eddie Redmayne (for best supporting actor) for The Good Nurse into the SAG line-up.
Special mention goes to Top Gun: Maverick, a film that grossed more than $1 billion at the box office since its global launch mid-last year.
It missed out on Globes recognition, but has received a SAG nod for best stunt performance in a film.
In television categories, Better Call Saul, The Crown, Ozark, Severance and The White Lotus were nominated for best drama cast.
The TV comedy cast contenders are Abbott Elementary, Barry, The Bear, Hacks and Only Murders in the Building.
The SAG Awards are scheduled to be handed out at a ceremony in Los Angeles on February 26, two weeks before the Oscars.
