For all the controversy that has plagued the Golden Globes in recent years, the ceremony remains the first major arbiter of where awards season is likely to go. It’s particularly important this year, as it feels even harder than usual to predict which films and TV shows are going to dominate over the coming months of Oscars, Emmys and Baftas.
Are we going to witness a season of Barbie wins? Oppenheimer? Will Maestro become the baffling victor that gets everyone enraged?
On the TV side of things, this was a year of big endings, with Succession, The Crown, Barry and The Marvelous Mrs Maisel all coming to a close. Succession should benefit the most, awards-wise. What might be interesting to observe, though, is the likely cratering of The Crown. For a show that was once so essential to cultural discourse, it seemed to end with a whimper in December, didn’t it? Might it do the same here?
The Globes screen in the US tonight (7 January), with comedian Jo Koy taking up hosting duties. In the meantime, here are our predictions for who will and who should win all the major categories.
Film
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Will win/Should win Oppenheimer
For the most part this is a really strong category, but fundamentally it’s money that talks in Hollywood, and Oppenheimer made an absolute boat-load of it. Expect to see it rewarded at the Globes for not only being creatively brilliant, but also for basically printing cash last summer.
Bombs away: Robert Downey Jr in ‘Oppenheimer’— (Universal Pictures)
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Air
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Poor Things
Will win A bit like the above, Barbie made so much money this year that it’s sort of unthinkable it won’t be awarded here for that alone. It’s also a very good movie in terms of craft, if a little clumsy as a comedy. That also pushes the film to the lower end of this category’s nominees, which makes its inevitable win feel a tad disappointing.
Should win Poor Things is a vision, and it’d be quietly radical for something so riotous to take home the prize. But then there’s The Holdovers, the complete antithesis of Poor Things – gentle, understated and almost painfully human – but gosh, what a film. A win for either would be worthy of celebration.
Best Motion Picture, Non-English Language
Anatomy of a Fall
Fallen Leaves
Io Capitano
Past Lives
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest
Will win/Should win Unless there’s a last-minute Past Lives upset, this will be a toss-up between Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, two critical hits both boasting equally remarkable performances from actor-of-the-year Sandra Huller. I give the edge to Anatomy of a Fall, though, just as it’s a mildly juicy courtroom thriller and a far easier watch than a brilliant but understandably gut-wrenching Holocaust film.
Going grey (and maybe gold): Hayao Miyazaki’s ‘The Boy and the Heron’— (Studio Ghibli)
Best Motion Picture, Animated
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros Movie
Suzume
Wish
Will win Across the Spider-Verse is very good, if half a movie – that infuriating cliffhanger ending! Its eye-popping visuals puts most of Hollywood to shame, though, and it will likely take home the trophy.
Should win It’s not Hayao Miyazaki’s best by any means, but the mystical fable The Boy and the Heron is a sterling return for a filmmaker who claimed a few years ago that he’d retired.
Best Director, Motion Picture
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Will win My tea leaves have clearly rotted, because I’m sensing a Bradley Cooper victory here. Maestro is technically impressive yet a narrative mess – Cooper’s a big movie star, though, and the Globes love nothing more than a big movie star. If a win here does materialise, it’ll be the biggest upset of the night.
Should win Speaking as somebody who for years was moderate on his work, the fact that I ran from my screening of Oppenheimer eager to get my Nolan fan-club card laminated is a very big deal. The movie’s brilliant, his work on it is brilliant – it’s also about time! Can you believe Nolan has never won a Globe?
Winning by a nose? Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan in ‘Maestro’— (Jason McDonald/Netflix)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Will win More of my tea leaves have rotted as I’m sensing yet another Bradley Cooper victory here. His performance in Maestro is far and away the most overtly “transformative” of this category – the wigs, the prosthetics, the ageing, the learning-how-to-conduct-an-orchestra stuff – and feels like Globes catnip.
Should win Or they could go for the more subtle approach and reward the simmering, chilling work of Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer. And who could honestly resist those devastated eyes?
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Will win Despite spending a decent chunk of the film splayed out on a bed and deathly ill, Gladstone haunts every frame of Killers of the Flower Moon.
Should win Gladstone would be a fine choice, but have you seen Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall? Performance of the year, frankly.
Did she do it?: Sandra Huller in ‘Anatomy of a Fall’— (Picturehouse Entertainment)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothee Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Will win/Should win Save for Chalamet, who is wildly miscast in Wonka, this is a really nice selection of nominees, but it feels like the category is Giamatti’s for the taking. He’s effortlessly endearing yet cantankerous in The Holdovers, and pure pleasure to watch.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Alma Poysti, Fallen Leaves
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Will win This feels like Margot Robbie’s to lose, but it’s also sincerely untrue to say that she gives the best performance of the nominees here. She’s very good in Barbie! But let’s also not go nuts!
Should win Both Natalie Portman and Emma Stone really play in their respective movies, dangling perilously close to overdoing their performances but always colouring just inside the lines. They’re so exciting to watch, and a win for either would be a treat.
Evil incarnate: Robert de Niro in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’— (Apple TV+)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Will win No one has campaigned harder on the circuit this year than Ryan Gosling, who seems set to walk away with this category despite the rumblings of a few months ago that Robert Downey Jr would sweep over awards season. That’s gone a bit quiet, hasn’t it?
Should win Yes, it’s a bit dull to still praise Robert De Niro to the hilt, but his work in Killers of the Flower Moon is a stunning return to form: few actors in recent memory have played grotesque evil with quite such subtlety and menace.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Will win This is quite a tricky category to predict, with arguments to be made for practically everyone here. That said, the Globes are fans of Rosamund Pike (remember her shock Best Actress win for the speedily forgotten I Care a Lot a few years back?), and they’ll probably want to reward Saltburn somehow. Inexplicable, I agree.
Should win Playing a grieving mother in The Holdovers, Da’Vine Joy Randolph is heartbroken, defiant and nicely prickly all at once.
Christmas magic: Da’Vine Joy Randolph in ‘The Holdovers’— (Seacia Pavao)
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
John Wick Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros Movie
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Will win/Should win First of all: haha. The introduction of a category expressly designed to reward movies for making a ton of money is one of the lamer decisions by the Globes in recent years. And there have been a lot of lame decisions! If we must choose a likely winner, expect it to be Taylor Swift’s tour movie. Should it win? Honestly, Swift’s omnipresence over the last few months has been slightly unbearable, so also giving her this incredibly silly trophy would be fitting – so go for it, Globes!
Television
Best Television Series, Drama
1923
The Crown
The Diplomat
The Last of Us
The Morning Show
Succession
Will win/Should win Nothing feels more inevitable this year than a Best Drama win for Succession’s final season, and who could really argue with that?
Gulp: Jeremy Strong in the very last episode of ‘Succession’— (HBO)
Best Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
Jury Duty
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso
Will win This feels like The Bear’s for the taking…
Should win …though there’s also an argument to be made that The Bear bit off more than it could chew this last season, expanding its universe a little too far out of the kitchen – so perhaps we’ll see a victory here for Jury Duty, the word-of-mouth pseudo-hoax hit that also made everyone suddenly discover Freevee on Prime Video.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Drama
Brian Cox, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Dominic West, The Crown
Will win The sheer volume of Succession choices here means a bit of vote-splitting could occur – which leaves a gap open for Pedro Pascal to cement his burgeoning stardom.
Should win If we have to pick one of the equally deserving Succession men, it’s gotta be Jeremy Strong, surely?
The best of them? Pedro Pascal could take home gold for ‘The Last of Us’— (HBO)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Will win/Should win Jeremy Allen White broke the internet earlier this week by posing in his pants for Calvin Klein, and ought to take home the Best Actor prize this weekend for The Bear – that’s range, people!
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Drama
Helen Mirren, 1923
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Emma Stone, The Curse
Will win Sarah Snook will likely take this, but would it really be that surprising if the Globes handed it to Helen Mirren despite the fact that her Yellowstone spin-off didn’t really take off?
Should win Emma Stone is tooth-wincingly mesmerising in The Curse, immaculately embodying a woman so hungry to be perceived as wise and upstanding that her brain has broken. The show itself is also deeply uncomfortable at the best of times, though, so I don’t imagine Globes voters will go for it.
Unhinged: Emma Stone in ‘The Curse’— (Paramount+)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Elle Fanning, The Great
Will win/Should win While it would cap her sterling year if Ayo Edebiri eked out a win here, Poker Face was such a showcase for Natasha Lyonne’s singular, scrappy energy that it’d be lovely to see her awarded.
Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Television Series
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
James Marsden, Jury Duty
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Alan Ruck, Succession
Alexander Skarsgard, Succession
Will win This is another tricky category to predict, but I’m thinking there might be another vote-split between the Succession men. Could Ebon Moss-Bachrach benefit the most?
Should win James Marsden has been one of those perpetually under-the-radar secret greats for at least two decades now, and it’d be lovely to see him properly recognised – his deadpan performance as “himself” on Jury Duty was one of the big surprises of last year.
Comedy hoax: Ronald Gladden and James Marsden in ‘Jury Duty’— (Amazon Freevee)
Best Performance by a Supporting Actress in a Television Series
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Abby Elliott, The Bear
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
J Smith-Cameron, Succession
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Will win As if they’re going to nominate Meryl Streep for a rare TV role and not have her take home the prize? Then again, Hannah Waddingham has been so ubiquitous of late – I think she was hiding out in my fridge over Christmas – that it wouldn’t be too surprising if she won this.
Should win Come on, J Smith-Cameron is right there!
Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
All the Light We Cannot See
Beef
Daisy Jones & the Six
Fargo
Fellow Travelers
Lessons in Chemistry
Should win Controversy slightly soiled Netflix’s Beef in the end, due to resurfaced comments about rape by cast member David Choe. But if we’re to judge what was actually on screen, this early-2023 conversation-starter should probably take the win.
Will win Recency bias could push the gay period drama Fellow Travelers to the front of the pack here – that and the fact that most of its competitors struggled to break out this year.
Golden couple? Jonathan Bailey and Matt Bomer in ‘Fellow Travelers’— (Paramount+)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers
David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Steven Yeun, Beef
Will win What is Lawmen: Bass Reeves you ask? We don’t know! But in all seriousness, it feels like the sort of not-really-there streaming series anchored by a big name that would win a category like this.
Should win It’s doubtful anyone is actually watching, but Jon Hamm is doing really brilliant work on the current season of Fargo. It’d be nice to see that consistently interesting yet typically underrated anthology series get its due.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death
Juno Temple, Fargo
Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers
Ali Wong, Beef
Should win Few seemed to actually watch Prime Video’s Dead Ringers adaptation, about weird twins scandalising the medical industry – which is a shame, since Rachel Weisz was (doubly) spectacular in it.
Will win Daisy Jones & the Six didn’t seem like the breakout smash Prime Video was hoping for (I’m sensing a pattern), but Riley Keough has very publicly had a traumatic few years and did very good work on the show itself – she’ll likely be in voters’ minds far more than the women she’s up against.
