All eyes are on key Gold Coast seats, as voters prepare to head to the polls on May 21.1
But political pundits say some seats will be more of a battleground than others, as traditionally "safe" Liberal National Party (LNP) seats come up against predicted big swings to Labor.
The five Gold Coast electorates held by the LNP are Forde, Fadden, Moncrieff, McPherson, and Wright.
Election pundit Paul Williams, from Griffith University, said "no-one should be surprised" about the expected "decent swings to Labor" — particularly in hotly contested Forde.
But Mr Williams says they "will be nowhere near" enough to topple the LNP from their "three jewels in the crown" — Fadden, McPherson, and Wright.
Meanwhile political marketing expert from the Australian National University Andrew Hughes said One Nation could be a "big factor" in returning the LNP to power on the Gold Coast but it was not yet clear how the minor party's preferences would flow.
Here's a breakdown of the Gold Coast electorates.
Forde (Beenleigh – Upper Coomera)
Experts have their focus on Forde, considered a "technically safe seat" with a margin of about 8.6 per cent, according to Mr Williams.
The northern Gold Coast seat has long been an election battleground, with incumbent Bert van Manen having been the sitting member since 2010.
In 2013, former Queensland premier Peter Beattie unsuccessfully ran up against Mr Manen and in 2019 he defeated Labor candidate Brett Raguse.
"That seat … and its northern counterpart Petrie [in Brisbane] are occupied by very similar types of members who work the electorate very well," Mr Williams said.
"Both earthy blokes, these are what we might call very pedestrian, down to earth, some might even say Struggle Street electorates where economic issues, kitchen table economics are really important, and they're not too interested in things like asylum seekers or the republic."
Mr Williams said constituents in Forde prioritised "being able to put their kids through school, mortgages, and being able to pay for sausages and toilet paper" when it came to their vote.
He said the sentiment from some of these voters who traditionally felt "supported" was that "the allegedly low-taxing government has let them down".
"And they may actually give the Labor Party, who's promising all sorts of relief for working Australians, a go," he said.
Looking to claim the seat from the incumbent are Labor's Rowen Holzberger, the Greens' Jordan Hall, the United Australia Party's (UAP) candidate Roxanne O'Halloran, The New Liberals' Samuel Holland, the Animal Justice Party's Linda McCarthy, and the Liberal Democratic Party's Tobby Sutherland.
Moncrieff (Molendinar – Miami)
Mr Williams said Moncrieff was one to watch when we go to the polls on May 21, as it might come down to the wire with preference votes.
"… I'm expecting Moncrieff to be forced to preferences this time," Mr Williams said.
"But again, I'm not expecting a big enough swing to see Labor wrestle those seats, so the LNP will be returned to the three jewel seats."
Moncrieff is generally considered "a very safe seat", with the LNP's Angie Bell having the largest margin in the region of 15.45 per cent.
Ms Bell has held the seat since 2019, and it has never been held by Labor since the electorate's inception in 1984.
Up against Ms Bell is Labor's Glen Palmer, who is a counsellor of victims of violent crime, a musician, and a volunteer firefighter.
Other hopefuls include the Greens' April Broadbent, One Nation's Leeanne Schultz, the UAP's Dean Vegas — an Elvis impersonator who also ran for Gold Coast Mayor in 2008 — and the Liberal Democratic Party's Diane Demetre.
Fadden (Stapylton – Labrador)
The seat of Fadden is responsible for much of the northern Gold Coast, from Staplyton to the coast, as far west as Oxenford, and south to Gaven.
Considered a "very safe" LNP seat by ABC political analyst Antony Green, Fadden is held by Employment Minister Stuart Robert with a 14.2 per cent margin.
Mr Robert, who has held the seat since 2007, is the longest-sitting Gold Coast MP on the current list.
The last time the Labor party won Fadden was in 1983, before it was reclaimed by the Liberal Party one year later.
In 2019, the LNP recorded two-party preferred majorities at all but one of the 30 polling places within the electorate.
Labor came out on top at Labrador State School.
Mr Robert is being contested by the ALP's Letitia Del Fabbro, long-time Greens candidate Sally Spain, One Nation's Sandy Roach, the UAP's Nathan O'Brien, the only independent currently listed for any Gold Coast electorate, Stewart Brooker, and the Liberal Democratic Party's Alex Forbes.
McPherson (Clear Island Waters – Coolangatta)
McPherson, which covers the southern end of the Gold Coast down to the border, including Tallebudgera and Currumbin Valleys, is another one of Mr Williams' "jewel" seats.
It has been held by Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews since 2010.
Dr Hughes said he did not "think any seat is safe" in the city — even this southern Gold Coast electorate of McPherson, which has Ms Andrews sitting on a comfortable 12 per cent margin.
"That's the thing about the seats on the Gold Coast; they do very well for One Nation and they get between 10 to 15 per cent of the primary vote."
Those contesting the seat include the ALP's Carl Ungerer, One Nation's Kevin Hargraves, the UAP's Joshua Berrigan, the Liberal Democratic Party's Glenn Pyne, the Greens' Scott Turner and the Australian Values Party's Andy Cullen.
Wright (Hinterland – Lockyer Valley)
The newest electorate in Queensland — Wright — has been held by Scott Buchholz since 2010.
It covers areas including the Scenic Rim, Worongary, Canungra, Jimboomba, Beaudesert, and the Lockyer Valley.
An LNP majority was recorded in 60 of the 62 polling places in the 2019 election.
Labor triumphed at two booths — Tenthill Baptist Church, south-west of Gatton, and the small Springbrook State School in the Gold Coast hinterland.
A smaller pool of candidates is contesting Forde, including the ALP's Pam McCreadie, the Greens' Nicole Thompson, One Nation's Keith Hicks, and the UAP's Cassandra Duffill.
