The world has never had more data, more models, or more economists. It has rarely felt more out of control. Uncertainty, not risk, has become the defining condition of our era. Central bankers invoke it. Political leaders use it to defer decisions and justify extraordinary decisions. Academics are struggling to adapt their theories to a brave new world of unexpected outcomes and erratic policy choices. The IMF’s World Uncertainty Index – which tracks how often the word appears in economic and political reporting across 143 countries – has been running at historically elevated levels for the better part of a decade, with fresh spikes after every major shock.
We seem to be living through a permanent emergency, and uncertainty is the buzzword, but what can we do about it? The answer is less complicated than the question suggests: societies that invest in strong, inclusive institutions weather uncertainty better than those that don’t.
