PEOPLE should be “totally relaxed” about Scotland becoming independent, according to one of the world’s foremost referendum experts.
Matt Qvortrup, a professor of political science who has studied referendums around the globe dating back to 1793, has argued that the idea of an independent Scotland in Europe is “totally reasonable”.
Speaking to The Herald on Sunday, the academic had a question for Unionists – asking why countries like Malta, lacking resources such as oil, are able to operate as independent nations, but not Scotland.
The London-based professor, who has sat on The Constitution Society’s working party on independence for Scotland, also called for a politican-free Citizens’ Assembly to be set up ahead of indyref2 to explore the key issues needing to be put to the people.
“Why couldn’t Scotland become independent?” Qvortrup asked.
“I think the idea of an independent Scotland in a united Europe is totally reasonable. Scotland would probably be pretty much an average-sized country … Malta has been independent for just over 50 years.
“If Malta can do it, without oil, then why not Scotland? I don’t think [independence] must happen, I don’t think it’s necessarily likely to happen, but I think we can be totally relaxed about it.”
Malta gained independence from the UK in 1964, becoming a republic 10 years later.
Mhairi Black (above), the SNP’s shadow Scotland spokesperson at Westminster, suggested the professor’s comments rebuffed common anti-independence arguments.
“Scotland can be a successful independent country, playing a positive and progressive role on the international stage,” she told The National.
“With the UK under the Tories becoming increasingly insular with their harmful policies, including the callous Rwanda deportation scheme, extreme Brexit, and hostile approach to our EU neighbours, Scotland can chart a different course with compassion at the forefront.”
She went on: “A year ago, the SNP was re-elected by the people of Scotland with a renewed, cast-iron mandate to hold an independence referendum in this parliamentary term. A majority of Scots support a referendum - and the majority of people expressing an opinion wanted to see that referendum take place during this parliamentary term.”
Meanwhile, SNP president Michael Russell welcomed the intervention.
"I think of the idea of independence as something entirely normal (as it is) and therefore being 'totally relaxed' about it - as he says - is the right approach to take," he said.
"The Tories are terrified of that idea because the whole issue then becomes one of choosing who we want to deliver good governance in a normal, prosperous and outgoing European nation. They have failed Scotland in that regard for more than 60 years and go on doing so. We can do so much better for ourselves."
While Professor Qvortrup has correctly predicted the results of a number of referendums, including the Brexit vote, he said it is not currently possible to say how indyref2 would go. However, he noted that a loss would mean “curtains” for the SNP.
Qvortrup, also an expert in democracies around the world, had a word of warning for the state of democracy in the UK.
“You don’t really notice until it’s gone. Democracies fall mainly not as a result of coup d’état but as a result of withering away, chipping away," he said.
While he had some concerns for Scotland’s political system, he said the country’s government is “paradoxically less nationalist than the one in England”.
The professor described Nicola Sturgeon as having the “effortless ease of greatness”, who can appeal to both hearts and minds, in contrast to the UK’s Prime Minister.
Qvortrup’s comments come after it emerged that the First Minister would be setting out her blueprint for independence this week.
The document is expected to be published within the next few days, while another publication is thought to be coming before the end of this parliamentary session.
The papers will mark the beginning of a series put together by a team of civil servants working on the “detailed prospectus” for independence.
Some £20 million has been allocated for the holding of indyref2 in 2023.
