Kazuo Ueda warned that central banks should not assess oil price movements in isolation, arguing that temporary energy shocks can evolve into persistent inflation if they begin influencing wages, consumer expectations, and corporate pricing behavior, according to a report by Reuters.
Speaking at a conference hosted by the Bank of Japan and its think tank, the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Ueda said the impact of oil price spikes depends heavily on the economic environment in which they occur.
Ueda explained that identical increases in oil prices can produce very different effects on inflation, wages, demand, and exchange rates depending on prevailing inflation expectations and wage growth trends.
He noted that when inflation expectations are already elevated and wages are rising rapidly, the possibility of broader second-round inflationary effects becomes significantly stronger. In contrast, even a major energy cost shock may fail to generate sustained inflation if wages remain stagnant and inflation expectations stay subdued.
As per the report, the comments come at a time when rising oil prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict are adding to inflationary pressure in Japan. The situation has prompted growing expectations in financial markets that the BOJ could raise interest rates as early as next month.
Ueda described the current surge in oil prices resulting from the U.S.-Israeli conflict involving Iran as Japan’s “fifth oil price shock,” saying policymakers could draw important lessons from earlier episodes of energy-driven inflation.
Reflecting on Japan’s first oil shock in 1973, Ueda said inflation was already running close to 10% before the crisis struck, eventually driving wage and price growth to nearly 20% a year later. He acknowledged that the BOJ tightened monetary policy during that period, but the response came too late and was insufficient to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.
By comparison, Japan’s second oil shock around 1979 and 1980 produced a much more moderate inflation response. Ueda attributed that outcome not only to quicker monetary tightening by the central bank, but also to lower underlying inflation and more restrained wage behavior at the time. He also highlighted the role of a stronger yen in reducing import costs during that period.
Reuters further reported that Ueda contrasted the recent inflationary impact of the Ukraine war with the third oil shock seen in the late 2000s. He said the supply disruptions following the Ukraine conflict resulted in broader price increases across the economy, with inflationary pressures amplified by yen weakness.
According to Ueda, the recent period also altered the inflation mindset of Japanese businesses and households, making companies more willing to raise prices and workers more inclined to demand higher wages.
He stressed that oil price shocks should be viewed as broader tests of an economy’s inflation dynamics rather than isolated commodity events.
