The global economic outlook for 2025 presents a complex and cautious picture, with growth projections being revised downward amid persistent uncertainties and policy shifts. The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting factors such as front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, improved financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.
Despite this modest upward revision, growth remains below the historical average of 3.7% recorded between 2000 and 2019. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development takes a slightly more cautious view, projecting global growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, with the most pronounced slowdown expected in the United States, Canada, Mexico and China.
