The Seahawks traded away one of the greatest deep passers in NFL history last year and they somehow wound up with an upgrade in this part of the game. While he wasn’t perfect, Geno Smith did a lot of things well on the field in 2022. At the top of the list was his aggressiveness and high accuracy throwing the deep ball (passes of 20 air-yards or more).
Recently Nick Shook at NFL.com, made a list of the top 10 deep throwers in the league last year and Smith came in at No. 1. Some of the names on Shook’s list were expected – such as top-three superstars Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen – but there are also several surprises, including an appearance by the painfully boring Kirk Cousins and former Seattle starter Russell Wilson, who bombed in general his first year in Denver, but apparently is still thriving in this department.
Here’s how Shook’s complete top-10 deep-thrower list stacks up.
10
Josh Allen - Bills
“Allen’s numbers are also a product of persistence. He launched more deep passes than any NFL QB who qualified for this list, and he still managed to post a fairly solid EPA per dropback of +0.48. The 10 touchdowns are a product of a big-armed quarterback showing it off at a higher rate than anyone else in the league…”
9
Joe Burrow - Bengals
“Burrow and Higgins connected on 50 percent of their 18 deep attempts, accounting for 328 of Burrow’s 668 deep passing yards and nearly half of Burrow’s deep passing touchdowns. They were a dynamite duo, producing a passer rating of 135.4 and a CPOE of +19.5% on deep throws…”
8
Derek Carr - Saints
“Carr exceeded expectation on deep passes to Adams at a rate of +11.3%. The duo was incredibly effective, accounting for 465 of Carr’s 799 deep passing yards and eight of his 11 deep touchdown passes. Carr’s CPOE was pulled down by attempts thrown in the direction of two other players: Hunter Renfrow (-21.7%) and Mack Hollins (-9.2%), the latter of whom caught just three of 16 deep targets on the year…”
7
Russell Wilson - Broncos
“This one shocked me, and I suspect it will shock others, as well… But despite the wide-ranging problems with Denver’s offense in 2022, Wilson was surprisingly effective when it came to airing it out. He finished with the second-most deep attempts and passing yards of any qualifying quarterback, with a significantly better TD-to-INT ratio than he put up on non-deep throws (10:9). Wilson deserves credit for posting these numbers despite being pressured on nearly 40 percent of deep attempts…”
6
Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs
“In 2020, Kansas City’s offense executed so effectively that Mahomes’ CPOE on deep throws was not high enough for him to crack the top 10 of this ranking. That changed in 2021, when a CPOE on deep attempts of +4.2% helped land him at No. 6, the same spot he occupies here after posting a similar mark in that metric in 2022…”
5
Kirk Cousins - Vikings
“Cousins’ downfield success wasn’t just about Justin Jefferson; four of his deep TD connections were with other pass-catchers. But Jefferson did a lot to get Cousins to No. 5 here, accounting for 61.7 percent of Cousins’ downfield yards. The two hooked up 15 times for 532 yards and one touchdown on downfield passes, posting an incredible CPOE of +31.3%…”
4
Dak Prescott - Cowboys
“Prescott’s ability to overcome disadvantages on deep throws is a big part of what landed him at No. 4 here. Among the quarterbacks on this list, Prescott finished with the third-highest completion percentage over expected. His TD-to-INT ratio on such attempts boosted his EPA to +28.9 on deep attempts…”
3
Jalen Hurts - Eagles
“In EPA, which factors heavily into passing score, Hurts (37.3) was clearly better than Prescott (28.9), producing nearly 10 more expected points added, thanks to his 10:2 TD-INT ratio, which doubled Prescott’s output with only 17 more such attempts. Hurts also gained nearly 300 more yards on deep attempts than Prescott, although that is a result of Hurts’ advantage in volume…”
2
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins
“The biggest difference in his deep-passing stats the rest of the way ended up being in CPOE, in which Tagovailoa dropped by more than eight percentage points. Otherwise, he posted a perfect 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio from Week 10 on. In other words, he was good — really good — at throwing deep throughout the season, finishing as the only qualifying quarterback in the entire NFL with a deep passing EPA per dropback over 1…”
1
Geno Smith - Seahawks
“These numbers are all impressive, but what vaulted Smith up to the top spot was just how productive he was when throwing deep. Nearly half of Smith’s 30 touchdown passes came on deep passes, and his 13 downfield scores led all quarterbacks. This rate of success was stellar: 25.4 percent of Smith’s deep attempts produced touchdowns in 2022…”
We see two themes on this list worth exploring a little more.
First is the uncommon eye for this specific talent at quarterback by head coach Pete Carroll. Defensive-first coaches like Carroll tend to struggle finding high-quality QBs, but that has definitely not been the case for Pete, both in Seattle and at USC.
Wilson was the game’s best deep passer for much of his time with the Seahawks and Smith taking over and offering an immediate upgrade speaks to a rare ability to find skilled quarterbacks who ride that fine line between aggression and caution. Carroll has his flaws as a coach – especially in regards to the run deference – but he deserves a lot more credit for his success at QB.
The biggest common denominator we see on this list is that all 10 deep passers have excellent wide receiver groups – with the exception of Patrick Mahomes – who doesn’t need one.
The connection between quarterbacks and wide receivers is the most-valuable dynamic in the modern game, which is why investing serious resources at receiver is what smart teams do these days – even if it seems like they’re already sufficently stacked at that spot. Seattle drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round is a great example, as was the Chargers taking Quentin Johnston with the next pick.
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