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Fortune
Fortune
Alan Murray, Nicholas Gordon

Generative A.I. could add $4.4 trillion to the global economy

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman speaking in Tokyo. (Credit: Akio Kon—Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Generative A.I. has captured the attention of nearly every company, but many are still unsure what to do with it. The folks at the McKinsey Global Institute have a new report out today that looks at potential use cases. And they see plenty. “Generative A.I. could add the equivalent of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually across the 63 use cases we analyzed”—an amount they note is around the size of the United Kingdom’s GDP.

Interestingly, 75% of the value they found comes from four use cases, which are already starting to take hold:

Customer operations. Generative A.I. has its clearest application here by automating natural language interactions with customers. Half of customer contacts made by banking, telecommunications and utility companies in North America are already handled by machines. Generative A.I. could further reduce human-serviced contacts “by up to 50%.”

Marketing and sales. Generative A.I. can quickly create personalized messages tailored to individual customer interestsand also create first drafts of brand advertising, slogans, social media posts and product descriptions.

Software engineering. By generating initial code drafts, correcting and refactoring code, and otherwise accelerating the coding process, generative A.I. could replace 20% to 45% of current spending on this function. 

Product R&D. Life sciences and chemical industries have begun using generative A.I. foundation models for what is known as “generative design”—generating candidate molecules and accelerating the development of new drugs and materials.

Which industries will be most affected? The research shows few will be untouched. But some of the big dollar productivity gains come from professional services, advanced manufacturing, banking, high tech, and retail. And unlike previous waves of technology, generative A.I. will have its greatest impact “in occupations requiring higher levels of educational attainment.”

The conclusion: “The scale and the scope of the workforce transitions described in this report are considerable…About a quarter to a third of work activities could change in the coming decade. The task before us is to manage the potential positives and negatives of the technology simultaneously.”

You can read the full report here. Also, check out Fortune’s new list of 13 people leading the A.I. revolution. Other news below.


Alan Murray
@alansmurray

alan.murray@fortune.com

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