Clamour for a general election is growing among voters, as Rishi Sunak’s allies warned “bitter” Tory MPs opposed to his leadership against any moves which could bring down the government.
Public pressure for an immediate election continues to build, with MPs’ inboxes flooded with pleas for a snap vote and the TUC and People’s Assembly set to stage major rallies next week.
More than 460,000 people have signed a petition set up by The Independent arguing it is time for voters to decide who should govern the country as part of our Election Now campaign.
Focus group bosses said there had been a huge surge in demand for a fresh election following the chaos which saw Liz Truss ousted and Mr Sunak become the third Tory PM since Boris Johnson led his party to victory on the basis of the 2019 manifesto.
In sessions shared with The Independent, voters in red-wall seats in the North and Midlands said Mr Sunak was “in the job without having to fight for it” and deciding on the government “should be down to us”.
Constitutional experts also said backbench Tory rebellions could collapse the Sunak administration and spark a snap vote – pointing out that an election becomes “inescapable” if the PM cannot lead a stable government.
Mr Sunak faces huge challenges keeping his party together ahead, with Tories loyal to Mr Johnson such as Nadine Dorries, Sir Christopher Chope and Zac Goldsmith calling for an early election.
Veteran MP Sir Roger Gale warned those who dislike Mr Sunak against rebellions on 17 November Budget measures – even if unpopular decisions like real-terms cuts to benefits, slashing public sector spending or breaking the “triple lock” promise on pensions have to be made.
“They may try to [rebel], but they’re going to be small minority,” he told The Independent. “There will be some sour grapes, there are people who have lost ministerial jobs. But we have to put egos behind us and get on with governing.”
The scale of the challenge for Mr Sunak in continuing to get big economic measures through parliament “will depend how stubborn colleagues want to be,” said Sir Roger, who backed Penny Mordaunt for the leadership.
One senior Tory MP, who supported Sunak, said: “It would be bonkers to try to replace the leader or move against the government when it comes to the finances. It would be just mad. It would require an immediate general election. I would urge them to think very carefully [about rebellions].”
Another Tory, a former minister said “bitter” Johnson loyalists would be “well-advised to be cautious” about rebelling on major issues because of the risk of losing their seat in an early election. “It would be turkeys voting for Christmas.”
Catherine Haddon, senior fellow at the Institute for Government (IfG), said the failure to get majority support in the Commons for “do or die” economic measures could make the Sunak government “unsustainable”.
The constitutional expert said the government was more likely to be brought down through “miscalculation” if Mr Sunak were to declare a major economic issue a confidence motion which he fails to win.
Asked why Tory MPs would vote against the government on a confidence motion, she said: “There comes a point where some MPs might say an election is for the good of the country. Or it could simply be out of spite. They might calculate they can still win their own seat. Or they might be happy stepping down and doing something else.”
The government experts said there was no constitutional reason why the Tories couldn’t replace Mr Sunak. “But it feels like there is a limit to the number of replacement leaders if the party is unable to form an effective government. Public pressure for a general election can become inescapable,” she said.
Dr Haddon added: “One lesson from the last few years is you can’t entirely predict how chaotic things could get. Things that seem completely mad might still happen.”
Prof Andrew Blick of King’s College London agrees that it would be very difficult for the Tories to replace Mr Sunak if it became clear he could not command the confidence of the House, with an election more likely.
“You can’t rule out an early election. It would take a major split in the Conservative Party, but if it becomes impossible to govern, a government can just give up,” said the constitutional expert.
A poll for The Independent this week found almost two-thirds (61 per cent) of voters want an early election. Focus groups have also seen a surge in desire for a fresh national vote from both Tory and Labour voters in recent weeks.
At one event in Dudley in the West Midlands on Wednesday – organised by More in Common after Mr Sunak entered No 10 – all nine participants backed an early election. “We have had no choice. We talk about democracy, so surely there has to be an election,” said Chris, a careers adviser.
More in Common director Luke Tryl said: “Most of the public are baffled at the events of recent weeks, not just how things could go wrong so quickly, but how they could also end up with not one but two prime ministers that they didn’t vote for.”
He added: “If Sunak is able to calm things down and point to better times ahead, calls for a general election might subside. But as things stand the prospect of a bleak winter, further spending cuts and yet more turmoil means the number of people demanding a vote is only set to grow.”
Ed Dorrell, a director at the Public First research and strategy group, said the demand for an election had come up “a lot more” in its recent focus groups. “There’s a general sense that the Tory government has run out of steam, a general sense that we need to start again,” he said.
Both Labour and Liberal Democrats have stepped up general election planning since the mini-Budget debacle, according to party sources.
More than 500 people have signed up to lobby MPs on the need for a fresh vote at meetings in parliament on Wednesday afternoon, ahead of a TUC-led “general election now” rally. Hundreds more are expected to join a People Assembly’s march for an election on 5 November.
Daisy Cooper of the Lib Dems said her inbox had been “flooded with constituents demanding a say”. The deputy leader said the Tories “look on the brink of imploding at any moment meaning a general election could still be on the cards in the coming months”.
Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said the broken manifesto promises – such as the triple lock which requires pensions to rise by the highest of inflation, average earnings or 2.5 per cent – should spark an election.
“The 2019 manifesto they stood on can’t be delivered,” he said. “They are breaking promises left, right and centre. So our new prime minister has no mandate for the programme he intends to carry out.”
The Independent petition calling for a general election
It is a simple and fundamental principle that the government derives its democratic legitimacy from the people. The future of the country must not be decided by plotting and U-turns at Westminster; it must be decided by the people in a general election. And for this reason, The Independent is calling for an election to be held. Have your say and sign our election petition by clicking here
