Millions of voters will go to the polls this week to elect the new Government. The Standard is looking at key battlegrounds in London and beyond, and has published an interactive map for races in the capital. Here we turn the spotlight further afield to Yorkshire and Rishi Sunak’s constituency.
RICHMOND & NORTHALLERTON
Estimated declaration time: 4.00 am
Candidates for main parties (in alphabetical order):
Daniel Callaghan - Liberal Democrat
Kevin Foster - Green
Rishi Sunak - Conservative
Lee Taylor - Reform UK
Tom Wilson - Labour
Summary: Mr Sunak is defending a majority of 27,210, more votes than all the other candidates combined managed in 2019. No sitting Prime Minister has ever lost his or her own constituency.
But could he buck the trend in spectacular fashion? One large-scale MRP poll by Savanta predicted the Tories overall will sink to just 53 seats - with the losses set to include Richmond and Northallerton in North Yorkshire.
That was an outlier. All other MRP surveys foresee a Conservative hold in the heavily rural and picturesque constituency, where the wealthy Sunak family has a large manor house, earning him the nickname the Maharajah of the Dales. According to the 2021 census, they were among only 778 Hindus in the overwhelmingly white constituency.
Mr Sunak’s adoption by the local Conservative Party was a surprise to some when he first stood as an MP in 2015. But the hedge fund investor came with the strong recommendation of the outgoing MP and former Tory leader, William Hague.
One potential problem facing the PM in his constituency is Catterick Garrison, the Army’s largest barracks, after he was forced into a humiliating apology for leaving D-Day events early in France.
The Richmond and Northallerton race is attracting others keen to grab some of the limelight on election night, including Count Binface, whose manifesto promises include national service for all former PMs.
Wards: Appleton Wiske & Smeatons; Great Ayton; Hutton Rudby; Morton-on-Swale; Northallerton North & Brompton; Northallerton South; Osmotherley & Swainby; Romanby; Stokesley and The District of Richmondshire.
I’m not sure if I’m in this constituency: Here’s how you can check
Boundary changes impact: Mr Sunak’s old constituency of Richmond is no more. The expanded version includes some Labour-leaning wards, but normally that should not be anywhere near enough to change the result.
YouGov MRP poll prediction: Conservative hold.
Evening Standard view: It would be the ultimate ‘Portillo moment’ were Mr Sunak to lose his own seat. But he won’t, unless Labour’s projected national landslide turns out to be an all-destroying tsunami of unprecedented scale.
