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The Conversation
The Conversation
Paul Rogers, Professor of Peace Studies, University of Bradford

Gaza war: with both sides playing politics, don’t expect a ceasefire any time soon

When the UN security council voted in favour of a resolution backing the latest ceasefire deal for Gaza on June 10, the only member state to abstain was Russia. It did so, it said, because of insufficient assurances that Israel would abide by the deal’s terms. China supported the resolution, but doubted whether there had been notable developments since the previous ceasefire motion. The other 13 states were supportive if not overly optimistic.

Whether progress is now made depends on several factors. Prominent among these are how the war goes from here, the Israeli political environment and the extent of pressure on Israel from the Washington for a ceasefire.

The four hostages released by Israeli forces were certainly welcomed home to Israel but the remarkable element in their release was that they were in good physical health. This was after eight months of captivity in an intense war zone and suggests that Hamas is very far from defeat if it can maintain that degree of organisation for so long when faced persistently with overwhelming firepower.

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