If, before the 2022 season started, you wanted to place a bet that the Week 4 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars might be the game of the year so far… well, your odds would have been remarkable, and if you did make that bet, you should get to Las Vegas as quickly as possible, because you were seeing things very few people saw.
But here we are, and when these two teams kick off at 1:00 p.m. EST at Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field, the eyes of the NFL will be upon it. The 3-0 Eagles are benefiting from a radically redefined defense and the impressive development of quarterback Jalen Hurts, while the Jaguars under new head coach Doug Pederson are far more than a nice-culture feel-good story following the disaster that was Urban Meyer.
We might be dealing with the NFL’s two best teams right now. The Jaguars currently rank second behind the Buffalo Bills in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, and the Eagles rank fourth. The Jags lost a close one to the Washington Commanders in the season opener as they were still figuring a few things out. Since then, they shut out the Indianapolis Colts, 24-0 in Week 2, and demolished the Los Angeles Chargers, 38-10 last Sunday. Seemingly every free-agent signing and draft pick has worked out incredibly well for Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke, and this is now a legitimate contender on both sides of the ball.
The Eagles haven’t really stumbled at all. They’re 3-0, they’ve beaten their opponents by a combined score of 86-50, and just as has been the case for the Jaguars, all the moves made by general manager Howie Roseman this past offseason — from free agency, the trade for Titans receiver A.J. Brown, and through the draft — well, it’s been aces overall.
Perhaps most importantly, Hurts’ development as a quarterback (he currently ranks fifth in DVOA and sixth in DYAR) means that when the 2023 offseason comes around, the question that was is no more — do the Eagles have to use their cap dollars and/or multiple first-round draft picks to address the game’s most important position?
Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, who was understandably put in a vice by the unforgivably bad coaching by Meyer and his subordinates, currently ranks third among quarterbacks in both DVOA and DYAR. So, no problems there.
There are so many interesting matchups in this game, one All-22 article wasn’t going to get it done. My esteemed colleague Laurie Fitzpatrick has written about how the Jaguars can beat the Eagles; you can read that at the link below.
The Jaguars have announced their presence with authority, but the Eagles are eager to move to 4-0. Here’s me on how the Eagles can pull that off.
Contain Trevor Lawrence when he leaves the pocket.
Easier said than done, even with the Eagles’ outstanding defense. Pederson has Lawrence throwing quickly to mitigate his offensive line, but he also has his second-year quarterback running to throw, and to great effect. Lawrence has thrown 13 passes outside the pocket this season, completing 10 for 97 yards, 61 air yards, a league-leading four touchdowns, one interception, and a quarterback rating of 105.2.
This 14-yard touchdown pass to Zay Jones (No. 7) last Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers is about as good as it gets. Lawrence leaves under pressure, but keeps his mechanics and bearings together enough to make an outstanding tight-window throw with timing and rhythm.
“A big part of this game, especially in the red zone, is scramble plays,” Lawrence said Wednesday of this play. “I don’t know what the percentage of touchdowns in the red zone, [but] a high percentage of them are scrambles. That’s something that we always talk about, especially I feel like I’m good outside the pocket, and that’s something that we work, and it’s really about how quick the receiver reacts and his feel for whether it’s zone or man and getting open back there.
“Zay did a great job reacting immediately, found a little soft pocket, and I was able to locate him quick and put it on him, but really, that’s a huge part of this game, and that’s something that hopefully we can keep doing more and more of, because I think that’s something that’s really important to be successful.”
Pederson agreed.
“It’s something that we work on,” the coach said. “We work on red zone scramble and the rules that apply in a tight, condensed area of the field. Every team, every offensive team goes through it, having a plan for when the quarterback starts to run, and Zay and Trevor were on the same page, and Zay did exactly what we asked him to do, and it worked out.”
So far this season, the Eagles have done a great job of containing quarterbacks on the move, and the red zone is part of that equation. This defense has 17 instances in which they took a quarterback off his spot this season. Those quarterbacks have completed one pass for 17 yards on four attempts. There have been six quarterback runs for 52 yards in those plays, and five sacks.
So, throwing on the move might be a problem for Lawrence. Philly’s defense is so good at defending boot and scramble throws because they don’t need to bring extra defenders to get pressure, and on the back end, they’re great at matching up with receivers, preventing any easy touchdowns against spot-drop stuff.
This 13-yard Carson Wentz scramble at the start of the fourth quarter was a good example. Wentz had openings after he left the pocket, and Lawrence is a more aware thrower than Wentz is, but you can see how the Eagles work the back end to prevent quarterbacks from getting easy openings on scramble drills — especially in the red zone. It’s a four-man rush with seven defenders dropped into coverage, and Lawrence should expect to see a lot of it.
Lawrence should also expect to see a lot of five-man rushes, and that presents issues for Jacksonville’s offense.
Force one-on-one matchups with five-man fronts.
The Eagles are coming off a 24-8 Week 3 thrashing of the Washington Commanders in which they sacked Carson Wentz nine times, and pressured him on 23 of his 55 dropbacks. Philadelphia loves to confound opposing offensive lines with five-man fronts, and these are not standard blitzes with four-man fronts and an extra guy. These are different iterations of five-man fronts to force one-on-ones, and the Eagles have been pretty diabolical with them.
Doug Pederson is very aware of this.
“It’s a great pass rush,” Pederson said Wednesday. ‘They can do it with four, they can do it with five, a combination of the two. I think Fletch is still Fletch [DT Fletcher Cox], and he can push the pocket. They’ve got edge guys that can still bend. Josh Sweat is playing good. He’s long and kind of slithery. BG [EDGE Brandon Graham], you watch him, and he’s a guy that can get under your pads and push the pocket. All of these guys have talent to do that, and that’s what you’re seeing. A lot of them, too, the secondary, covering the receivers have nowhere to go with the football. That’s part of it. That’s a challenge just to defend four, possibly five guys.”
Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon said this week that the base pressure has allowed him to dial up all kinds of things in coverage.
“When the D-line is affecting the game the way they were, you can devote more into coverage. It makes it hard for the quarterback. Again, the players and coaches did a good job executing and winning at a high level.
“You saw the production stand out. I know everyone sees that stand out from the box score, but that’s why I wasn’t really sweating the production in the first couple games, because I knew at some point, if they keep winning at a high level, doing what they’re coached to do, that will come.”
This season, Trevor Lawrence has been pressured on just 34 of his 116 dropbacks — and that’s a good thing for the Jaguars, because Lawrence’s efficiency drops precipitously when he’s pressured. Under pressure this season, he’s completed 12 of 30 passes for 120 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 49.3. Without pressure, he’s completed 65 of 81 passes for 652 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 120.8.
Those five-man fronts didn’t just create unfavorable matchups for Washington’s offensive line; they also forced the Commanders to keep as many as seven offensive players in to block, and Washington would still lose those reps. Moreover, Philly’s tendency to motion to a five-man front messed with Washington’s protections — and by proxy, Washington’s entire offense.
Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (No. 91) picked up this Wentz sack by bulling right guard Trai Turner (No, 53) right into the pocket, but watch how linebacker Haason Reddick (No. 7) moving to the line right before the snap affects the protection call. You can see center Wes Schweitzer pointing that out, and putting himself on nose tackle Jordan Davis, who’s in a shade alignment. Now, the Commanders have to go one-on-one to the center and offensive right side, where Schweitzer might have helped Turner with Cox otherwise. Meanwhile, you’ve got three guys saying hello to defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (No. 97), while Graham (No. 55) drops into coverage.
Last Sunday, the Chargers didn’t sack Trevor Lawrence out of a five-man front — in fact, they didn’t sack him at all — but that had more to do with how quickly Lawrence got the ball out than anything else. But they did pressure Lawrence four different time with five-man fronts, and the one-on-ones did not work in Jacksonville’s favor.
This pressure on fourth-and-5 with 12:13 left in the first quarter ended a drive with an incompletion. There was nobody to help to block, given the Jaguars’ 11 personnel and quick-game routes. So, it was mano a mano, and defensive tackle Morgan Fox (No. 56) won the rep by crossing the face of left guard Ben Bartch (No. 78).
If the Eagles play as many five-man fronts as I imagine they will, Jacksonville’s offensive line won’t be up to it. Given the talent on Philly’s defensive line, few offensive lines are. The Jaguars will either have to keep Lawrence’s clock wound tight, or reduce the number of options in the passing game by keeping extra blockers in.
Design explosive passing plays vs. Jacksonville's two-deep coverages.
The Jaguars don’t have an obvious tendency with their coverage concepts. They’re just as likely to throw two-deep at you as single-high, though they play more zone (65%) than man coverage. The Eagles shouldn’t expect to see a lot of man coverage anyway, given Jalen Hurts’ running ability, so when it comes to dealing with Jacksonville’s two-high coverages (whether static or spun), the task for Doug Pederson and his staff will be to break the Jaguars’ positive defensive results with it. Jacksonville has allowed 37 completions in 51 attempts out of any kind of two-deep coverage for 382 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 72.5.
On this fourth-quarter interception of Carson Wentz in Week 1, Jacksonville played Cover-6 — it was Cover-2 to the boundary, and Cover-4 to the field. Slot cornerback Darious Williams (No. 31) did a great job of clogging up Wentz’s middle read to the passing strength, and since Wentz was reading backside anyway, he tried to hit receiver Jahan Dotson (No. 1) outside. Wentz’s problem was that outside cornerback Tyson Campbell (No. 32) was all over it, and jumped the route.
Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen has done a nice job this season designing concepts to beat various two-deep coverages. Philly’s offense has seen a lot of Cover-4 this season, and the Jaguars had best be ready for crossers by tight ends Dallas Goedert and Grant Calcaterra, which exploit openings underneath that “umbrella” coverage. This 40-yard catch-and-run by Calcaterra against the Commanders is an excellent example. The Jaguars are a bit more sophisticated with their coverages than the Commanders, and they can execute them with far more consistency, but the point stands.
Be ready for the Jaguars' coverage switches.
The Eagles have the ability to throw the Jaguars into a no-win situation on defense. If Jacksonville goes with a heavy rate of two-deep, Philly might be able to run them right out of it, starting with Hurts as a real threat on the ground. But if they go single-high to respect the run game, that’s when receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith could start going off.
One way the Jaguars have liked to split the difference this season in such situations is with disguised coverage looks in which the quarterback will see something different post-snap than he did when he got the ball. This three-play cutup from Ben Fennell, who works with the Eagles and with NFL Network (give him a follow; Ben does great work) shows some compelling examples against the Chargers last Sunday.
Jalen Hurts will have to watch how the Jaguars change the picture from pre-to-post snap this week
Lots of single high presnap – with rotations to Tampa 2… Can roll into it or invert into it!
And then the last play – watch the sneakyyyy swap of who will run the deep middle! pic.twitter.com/wyknKs0GQM
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) September 28, 2022
This interception by Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins against Matt Ryan and the Colts in Week 2 added a different wrinkle. Jacksonville showed Ryan a Cover-1 (single-high man) look pre-snap, with safety Andre Cisco (No. 5) dropping from linebacker depth to safety depth pre-snap to jump into 2-Man coverage. That gave Jenkins the freedom to roll half-field, come over on Ryan’s attempt to receiver Ashton Dulin (No. 16), and make the play.
While the Jaguars have their defensive switch concepts on lock, the execution isn’t always what they’d like it to be. Motion on either side of the ball can confuse people on either side of the ball. This 39-yard completion from Ryan to Dulin was made possible by the Jaguars switching late to Cover-6, and Dulin running right by Jenkins.
This is not how defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell drew it up, we’re pretty sure. So, these switches can be boom-or-bust for Jacksonville, and Hurts should be poised to take advantage of any miscommunications as they occur.
Now, Jacksonville’s run defense is a different animal this season, and that’s one of the more potentially impactful parts of this entire matchup.
Use window dressing to beat Jacksonville's outstanding run defense.
We already know about Jacksonville’s formidable pass-rush; my colleague Laurie Fitzpatrick detailed the exploits of the new “Sacksonville” in her outstanding recent article, and I think we’re all aware of how great that pass rush, led by Josh Allen and Travon Walker, can be. If not, Laurie’s piece is a great primer
I would like to turn the attention to Jacksonville’s run defense, because this is where the Jaguars are really cooking with gas. Through three games, the Jags are one of three teams (Broncos, Buccaneers) that has not allowed a rushing touchdown. They’ve allowed a league-leading 165 rushing yards and 107 yards after contact, and they’re top-tier in yards per attempt (3.1), first downs allowed (12), and missed tackles (only one). Jacksonville ranks fourth in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Adjusted Line Yards metric, and they’re shutting your run game down, no matter what you do.
Defensive tackles Roy Robertson-Harris, Folorunso Fatukasi, and Davon Hamilton are the guys to watch when the Eagles run the ball — they’re all stout at the point of attack, and they’re all capable of shooting through gaps, creating stops, stuffs, and tackles for loss.
Robertson-Harris has been one of my favorite players to watch this season; he made my Secret Superstars team after his Week 2 performance against the Colts. Robertson-Harris (No. 95) had a tackle for loss in that game in which he just blasted through slide blocking, and quicker than anybody could adjust, things went from second-and-9 to third-and-13.
The Eagles are not experiencing quite the running success they did last season — they’re about middle of the pack in 2022 — but they’ll still want to run the ball, If you run straight at Jacksonville’s defense, it’s not going to go well for you unless you have a top-three running back, which the Eagles do not. But what the Eagles do have is a run game that uses a lot of different motions and formations, and this is where Jacksonville is at least relatively vulnerable. Jacksonville has allowed 69 rushing yards on 29 carries (2.4 YPA) without pre-snap motion, and 96 yards on 24 carries (4.0 YPA) with it.
The Eagles ran this play against the Commanders from their own six-yard line with 10:35 left in the first half, so you know they had faith in the run concept. And it paid off. Receiver A.J. Brown’s pre-snap motion upset Washington’s run fits, as did the constant threat that this might be a designed run concept for Hurts. But it was a handoff to Miles Sanders for 13 yards.
The Eagles’ offensive line deserves more than a cursory mention here, but let’s just say that if you like games that are decided in the trenches, this is all about you.
You guys, I think Jason Kelce is still pretty good. Miles Sanders gets a 13-yard run, but watch Kelce push Daron Payne out of the way, and then take Cole Holcomb on a little bus ride. Sanders probably didn't expect Kelce to block the linebacker into him that far downfield. pic.twitter.com/BsrUmsaUAN
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 29, 2022
Throw out of empty formations... if you can.
This season, the Eagles have been really good in the passing game out of empty formations. Hurts has completed 15 of 17 passes out of empty sets for 178 yards, 92 yards after the catch, one touchdown, no interception’s and perhaps most interestingly, no sacks and just two pressures. There are two reasons some offensive coordinators would prefer to avoid empty — your protection options are obviously limited, and things tend to get a bit samey from a play-design perspective.
The Eagles do not have either problem in 2022. And as DeVonta Smith has been Hurts’ favorite target in empty this season (he has nine catches in empty on nine targets for 125 yards and 64 air yards), let’s look at Smith’s 31-yard reception against the Commanders last Sunday.
This is a mesh concept, with Smith (No. 6) running the short crosser from the left slot, and receiver Zach Pascal (No. 3) running the short crosser from the right slot. This messes up Washington’s underneath coverage in Cover-1 — cornerbacks Kendall Fuller and the delightfully-named Rachad Wildgoose freeze for a second when Pascal gives a little stop-fake at the mesh point — and by the time Fuller gets back in position, Smith is already by him. From there, it’s just about how many yards Smith can gain in open space.
The answer is 28 yards.
Unless the Jaguars are able to pressure Hurts severely when he throws out of empty, this matchup favors the Eagles to an extreme degree. Jacksonville has allowed seven completions in empty formations in 10 attempts for 123 yards. This 23-yard pass from Carson Wentz to tight end Logan Thomas shows how the Jaguars can be put in the dryer with crossers out of empty. Linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd drop into coverage from a blitz look, but they’re so fixated on receiver Curtis Samuel’s crossing route, Thomas runs up and outside with no resistance whatsoever.
Oluokun and Lloyd are outstanding coverage linebackers, and they’ll really have to be on point for a fully-developed passing game, even when there’s nobody but Hurts in the backfield.
It would also help if the Jaguars’ fronts got to Hurts as they did to Matt Ryan in Week 2 when the Colts had the unmitigated audacity to run empty against them. Here, we’re back to the five-man front looks with a dropping edge defender (K’Lavon Chaisson).
