Arsenal have been heavily linked with a move for Manchester City’s Gabriel Jesus in recent months as they look to bolster their attacking options ahead of the new season.
Jesus has been one of the Gunners’ prime targets, and they’ve already initiated talks with his agent Marcelo Pettinati amid interest from other clubs across Europe. The north London side have offered an improved salary of £190,000 per-week plus bonuses, compared to the £110,000 per-week he was on at City in an attempt to prise the forward away.
Eddie Nketiah is expected to extend his contract at the Emirates until 2027, though with Alexandre Lacazette leaving at the end of the month, Mikel Arteta is keen to bring in another attacking player alongside him.
A more reliable goalscorer will be a priority for Arteta, with many feeling the lack of such a profile played a big part in Arsenal missing out on a top four spot last season.
Bukayo Saka was the only Arsenal player to surpass double figures in terms of Premier League goals in the last campaign, while Lacazette, who was often leading the line up until the final few weeks, managed just one league goal following the turn of the year.
Many at Arsenal are hoping Jesus can be that reliable and efficient finisher they crave. Yet, a dive into Jesus’ underlying numbers should raise some concern. The Brazilian scored eight league goals last season, which looks unremarkable at first glance. However, an obvious caveat is he spent a lot of time playing out on the right of Pep Guardiola’s attack, helping him supplement that return with eight league assists too.
It’s not unusual to see Jesus play different roles for City, which is a nod to his versatility, yet he has predominantly played through the middle leading the attack, which is the role he’ll want to take on at Arsenal.
Mainly playing this position, the 25-year-old has scored 58 goals since arriving in the Premier League back in 2017. Concerningly though, for that same period, according to Understat his combined Expected Goal (xG) total is 76.05.
xG is a metric that utilises historical shot data to measure the quality of goalscoring chances and the likelihood of them being scored. The same is often used to get an indication of how a team or player is performing in front of goal.
In the case of Jesus, what the above indicates is that the Brazilian has hugely underperformed, scoring fewer goals than would have been expected based on the quality of chances he’s received.
A player’s finishing capabilities are rarely consistent, even the very best forwards go through hot and cold spells in front of goal. However, large playing samples tend to paint a more accurate picture of a player's capabilities.
And with that in mind, Jesus’ numbers should act as a red flag for Arsenal. There’s little doubt that he is overall an elite attacker who can contribute in a number of ways, however purely from a goalscoring perspective, it seems clear he’s not the efficient finisher they’re looking for.
