G7 environment and energy ministers meet this weekend in Sapporo, Japan, for climate negotiations that are likely to urge more action in a "critical decade", but could also lay bare divisions on ambitious fossil fuel commitments.
The world's leading economies are targeting net-zero emissions by 2050 or sooner after signing the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to cap global warming at well under two degrees Celsius.
But they differ on how to respond to the energy squeeze caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, with host Japan among those arguing for more leeway on fossil fuels to ensure energy security.
Britain, backed by France, has proposed new targets on the phase-out of domestic coal power at the minister-level talks, which kicked off in Sapporo on Saturday.
Pushback from Japan – which remains heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear plant disaster – could sink those efforts.
#Sapporo is the venue for the #G7 Ministers' Meeting on Climate, #Energy and Environment. It was the first city to be selected as an #SDGs Future City in 2018 thanks to the environmental proactiveness of citizens and companies since the #G8 #Hokkaido Toyako Summit! pic.twitter.com/nHIsxEU1J6
— METI, Japan (@METI_JPN) March 22, 2023
There are also divisions over natural gas, with Japan leading those pushing the G7 to recognise overseas investments in the fuel as a "necessary" stepping-stone in the global transition to clean energy.
Campaigners say Japan's reluctance to embrace ambitious fossil fuel targets sends the wrong message.
According to Susanne Wong, Asia Program Manager at Oil Change International, Japan is "actively working to increase reliance on liquid natural gas and other kinds of gas-based fuels" in Asia.
"While there's an urgent need to shift from fossil fuels, and the war has shown how risky the strategy is of relying so heavily on imported fossil fuels, they're encouraging governments to import LNG across the region."
#JapansDirtyG7 in the spotlight - again. It's clear Japan needs to #StopFundingFossils.https://t.co/AmEO0KZ2m5
— Susanne Wong (@susanneir) April 13, 2023
'Exceptional circumstances'
At last year's meeting in Germany, G7 climate ministers pledged to largely decarbonise their electricity sectors by 2035.
They also agreed to end direct public support for overseas fossil fuel projects that take no steps to offset carbon dioxide emissions.
This commitment was watered down the following month, when G7 leaders said the "exceptional circumstances" of the Ukraine war made gas investments "appropriate as a temporary response".
The language now sought by Japan – with backing from G7 partners the United States, Canada, Germany and Italy – would solidify that exception.
The meeting comes after a UN climate report last month warned the world will see 1.5°C of warming in about a decade, calling for "rapid and far-reaching" efforts to keep temperature increases within relatively safe limits.
And the draft final statement by the G7 environment ministers calls for all major economies to take action "in this critical decade".
Other elements will be more contentious, including Japan's push for recognition of nuclear power as a transitional energy source, and endorsement of its plan to start releasing treated water from the Fukushima plant into the sea this year.
Tokyo also wants G7 recognition for its controversial strategy of burning hydrogen and ammonia alongside fossil fuels to reduce carbon emissions – a practice which climate activists say serves only to extend the lifespan of polluting plants.
.@semafor asking for graphs that show progress (or inaction) on int. climate finance action today at #springmeetings2023 - this one might help. Wealthy countries committed to 100B$ in #climate financing and to phase out #fossilfuel subsidies… well, here u go 👇 pic.twitter.com/UN8GLLEG88
— Friederike Röder (@FredRoder) April 13, 2023
Japan seen as 'biggest obstacle'
Coal may prove the largest stumbling block, with Britain seeking a 2030 deadline to complete an "accelerated phase-out of domestic unabated coal power generation" to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach.
But Japan's preferred language would be a more general pledge to prioritise "concrete and timely steps" towards the phase-out.
Friederike Röder, vice president of the NGO Global Citizen, warned the meeting's language would be critical ahead of the G20 summit in India and COP28 in Dubai.
"We're trying to avoid going backwards" on pledges, she says.
"Japan is certainly the biggest obstacle – and this year it is G7 president."
Governments around the world will also be looking for action on resilience funding for the developing nations most affected by climate change.
Multi-billion-dollar investment plans have been announced for countries such as South Africa and Indonesia to transition to clean energy from fossil fuels, but are being rolled-out on an ad-hoc basis.
