When the day comes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be an extraordinary event: restarting about 10,000 oil wells, pumping roughly 15% of the world’s production, that had been shut down for a hundred days and counting. Nothing even remotely close has been attempted — ever. The oil industry doesn’t have a playbook for it; it will learn by doing.
Unsurprisingly, the commodity market is deeply divided about how long it would take: oil bears believe it could be done in days and weeks, while the bulls talk about six to eight months, perhaps even a year. The most pessimistic say many wells won’t restart at all.
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