Good morning.
Yesterday, Israel confirmed that its forces had killed the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, architect of the 7 October attacks against Israel that killed 1,200 people and in which a further 250 were taken hostage.
After a year-long manhunt, Israeli media reported that Sinwar, a prime target for Israel, had been killed “by chance” by regular IDF soldiers – not as the result of a targeted operation. Sinwar was reportedly killed in combat alongside two other militants on Wednesday in the city of Rafah.
Israeli troops took Sinwar’s body to Israel for DNA and dental record testing. Once there was confirmation of his identity, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government celebrated the death of Sinwar as the “beginning of the end” but made clear that the war, which has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians in Gaza, is not over: “The mission ahead of us is still unfinished.”
Today’s newsletter goes through the latest in the Middle East, and what Yahya Sinwar’s death could mean for the war in Gaza. That’s right after the headlines.
• This item was amended on 18 October 2024. An earlier version said 1,200 Israeli civilians were killed in the 7 October 2023 attacks. While the majority were civilians, a minority were military personnel.
Five big stories
Budget | Rachel Reeves is considering raising the tax on vaping products in her budget this month as figures show that a quarter of 11 to 15-year-olds in England have used e-cigarettes.
Home Office | The Home Office has recruited 200 staff to clear a backlog of 23,300 modern slavery cases left by the last government, a minister has told the Guardian. It follows reports that some have been waiting years to be defined as victims of modern slavery.
China | Labour has backtracked on plans to push for formal recognition that China’s treatment of the Uyghurs is genocide in the run-up to David Lammy’s trip to the country. The foreign secretary is expected to arrive in Beijing today for high-level meetings before travelling to Shanghai on Saturday.
AI | Child sexual abuse imagery generated by artificial intelligence tools is becoming more prevalent on the open web and reaching a “tipping point”, according to the Internet Watch Foundation, a safety watchdog.
Conservatives | Almost half of Conservative councillors polled this week have said neither Robert Jenrick nor Kemi Badenoch will be able to win the next election, while a significant minority said they did not plan to vote in the leadership contest.
In depth: Why it may not mean the dawning of the ‘day after’
Every day that the war in Gaza continues, civilians face death and contend with catastrophic conditions. Just yesterday, reports emerged of an Israeli airstrike that killed at least 28 people sheltering in a school in Gaza City. The attack comes amid accusations Israel is attempting to forcibly expel the remaining population in a renewed ground campaign in the north of the territory. Earlier this week, widely shared footage showed Shaban al-Dalou, a teenage Palestinian, who was attached to an IV drip burning to death in a blaze caused by an Israeli strike on a hospital in Gaza.
Sinwar’s death will renew hopes for a ceasefire, but there seems to be little appetite in Israel’s government for the war to end. Benny Gantz, an opposition politician, said Israel’s military “will continue to operate in the Gaza Strip for years to come”.
***
Who was Yahya Sinwar?
The elusive leader of Hamas managed to evade death for the last year, hiding mostly in tunnels in Gaza, despite being the Israeli military’s number one target since the 7 October attacks.
Sinwar was born in a refugee camp in Khan Younis in 1962. His family had been forced to flee and became refugees in 1948 during what Palestinians call the Nakba (catastrophe). Sinwar became an Islamist activist and joined Hamas in the 1980s when it first formed. He was arrested not long afterwards and given four life sentences for attempted murder and sabotage. Sinwar spent 22 years in Israeli jails, where he learned Hebrew and read Israeli news. After he was released in a prisoner swap in 2011, he married, had children and returned to Hamas. For more detail on the life and aims of Sinwar, read Jason Burke’s comprehensive profile of the Hamas leader.
***
What’s next for Hamas?
Yahya Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed, is believed to still be alive and highly influential – and a natural successor. Another candidate is Khalil al-Hayya, the deputy leader of Hamas in Gaza, who has been one of the lead negotiators during ceasefire talks in Qatar. The third potential option is Khaled Mashal, a former political head of Hamas.
Regardless of who will succeed Sinwar, Hamas will be in disarray. The casualties sustained among its fighters and the gutting of its leadership mean it will not be easy to recover for the militant group.
***
What does this mean for a ceasefire?
Comparing the assassination to that of Osama bin Laden, the US president, Joe Biden, said Sinwar’s death was a “good day” for the world. Biden and the vice-president, Kamala Harris, added that Israel must use the moment of his killing to negotiate the return of remaining hostages and end the war in Gaza “once and for all”. The leaders of Britain, France and Germany – Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz – all have publicly urged to Israel to work towards a ceasefire.
Iran on the other hand said the killing would strengthen the “spirit of resistance” and Sinwar would be seen as “a model for the youth and children who will carry forward his path toward the liberation of Palestine”. Hezbollah responded by announcing “the transition to a new and escalating phase in the confrontation with Israel”.
There is growing pressure inside Israel to ensure the safe return of the hostages – on Thursday hundreds gathered in Tel Aviv to call for their release – and such pressure is likely to grow in the coming days.
While Sinwar’s death removes a significant hurdle for ceasefire negotiations, it does not necessarily mean an end to the violence.
“Even if Israel did decide to declare victory in Gaza with the death of Sinwar – something that analysts have long predicted – it may not mean the dawning of the ‘day after’,” Jason Burke writes in his analysis. “Israeli officials have made clear their military control and operations will continue in Gaza for as long as they deem them necessary, and no one has yet come up with a new political set-up in Gaza that might be acceptable to all parties.”
Netanyahu’s political position is only further fortified by Sinwar’s death, continuing a turnaround after a year of chronic unpopularity. Recently the prime minister was already riding a political boost after the assassinations of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political chief (this explainer lays out the senior Hamas leaders and other militants who have been killed since the beginning of the war in Gaza).
It is of course too soon to be sure of the full consequences of this moment in the war – but it will probably mark a shift in this bloody conflict.
For the latest news on the crisis in the Middle East, follow the Guardian’s live blog.
What else we’ve been reading
Despite Arizona being a Republican stronghold, the vast majority of its women believe in their reproductive rights. In this piece, Gabrielle Goodwick, a doctor providing abortions in Arizona, says that “when the state goes to the polls, we’ll be voting not only on who becomes president, but on whether abortion is a constitutional right”. Olivia Lee, newsletters team
This interactive of the daily sounds of Gaza amid a relentless war, by Kaamil Ahmed, Ana Lucía González Paz, Ellen Wishart and Pip Burkett, is deeply moving. Nimo
This thoughtful piece by Jay Rayner reflects on the impact of a declining hospitality industry that has long helped struggling artists keep afloat. When these jobs go, Jay writes, our culture will also diminish. Olivia
“Algorithms have given a veneer of technological precision to a campaign that has caused largely indiscriminate destruction”, Sophia Goodfriend writes for the London Review of Books about Israel’s use of AI to generate kill lists. Nimo
Harriet Barber reports on the health crisis under way among uncontacted Indigenous communities in Peru, as oil and gas projects inch closer to some of the most intact and biologically diverse areas of the Amazon. Olivia
Sport
Football | Goals from young forwards Aggie Beever-Jones and Maika Hamano showed just how bright Chelsea’s future is as they continued their winning start to the season under new manager Sonia Bompastor with a 3-1 defeat of FC Twente in the women’s Champions League.
Cricket | Paul Collingwood insisted England have not given up hope of beating Pakistan despite ending the third day of the second Test on 36-2, still 261 runs from a distant and testing target. “We’ll still have belief,” the assistant coach said. “It’ll be a hell of a chase, but we’ve got to be realistic – it’s a tough ask.”
Cricket | Anneke Bosch smashed a superb unbeaten 74 as South Africa powered past the defending champions Australia with an eight-wicket victory to reach the final of the Women’s T20 World Cup.
The front pages
“Mastermind of Hamas attacks on Israel is killed by IDF troops” is the Guardian’s lead story today. “Hamas leader is killed in chance shelling by Israel” – that’s the Times while the Telegraph says “Israel kills Hamas leader”. The Financial Times has “Hamas mastermind of October 7 attacks killed in Gaza, says Israel”. “Liam’s tragic final hours” is the Metro’s splash and the Mirror goes with “Family’s tribute to Liam – our kind, funny, brave soul”. Tasteful stuff in the Daily Mail: “Record label dumped Liam before fatal drugs binge”. “Pension cash-in ‘panic’ at Labour budget tax rises” is page one in the Express, while the i has “UK public service cuts in Budget: Labour ministers accuse No 10 of complacency”.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
Music
Kelly Lee Owens: Dreamstate | ★★★★☆
Initially, you worry that a desire to communicate to a broader audience has led Owens to smooth out the idiosyncrasies that made her previous albums so effective: opener Dark Angel and Sunshine feel not unlike a more tasteful, Instagram-filter take on the big, hollow sound of late 90s Gatecrasher trance. But as Dreamstate progresses, it becomes apparent that Owens (above) is just deploying her idiosyncrasies more subtly than before. The results feel pop-facing without resorting to pop-dance cliches. The album largely achieves its multifunctional aims. Whether it can turn Owens into an actual pop star is unclear, but perhaps that’s not the point: after all, given her past form, the follow-up will most likely be completely different. Alexis Petridis
TV
Mr Loverman | ★★★★☆
Adapted from the Booker prize-winning author Bernardine Evaristo’s novel, Mr Loverman is about what it means to have a good life built on lies. Barry Jedidiah Walker is a charming 74-year-old dandy and a successful businessman, husband, beloved father and grandfather. He is also the secret lover, for 50 years and counting, of Morris De La Roux. This is a different, spikier, much braver tale about the Windrush generation than usually makes it on to our screens. There is closeness, vibrancy, violence and sorrow in the mix, plus an examination of many forms of love and how they can either strengthen or warp under pressure. It is more of a mood piece than an action-packed drama, with closeups of human life, and all its exquisite agonies and joys, portrayed by actors at the top of their game. Lucy Mangan
Film
Sweet Bobby: My Catfish Nightmare | ★★★☆☆
Though thankfully not stretched into multiple episodes, Sweet Bobby, at 82 minutes, is the rare case of a true crime documentary that could be longer. The big reveal (no spoiler) is swift, and the resolution barely teased out. Sweet Bobby easily accomplishes shock – I screamed at my laptop – though that largely owes to the truly unhinged raw material. Ultimately, Sweet Bobby leaves more questions than answers, though as is the unfortunate case with many catfishing scams, sometimes there are none. Adrian Horton
Podcast
Begin Again
Nothing sparks an existential crisis like a 90s icon becoming an expert on midlife, but Davina McCall is the OG of the genre. Now comes a new podcast about fresh starts, pivots and life’s “wiggly lines”. McCall is the usual ball of empathy, unafraid to cry with her guests, the first of whom is Fearne Cotton, who talks about her challenges. This is not your average celebrity chat podcast, as McCall listens hard and digs into her guests’ answers. Hannah Verdier
Today in Focus
The killing of Yahya Sinwar
The mastermind of the 7 October attack has been killed. How could his death change the conflict in the Middle East? Julian Borger reports
Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
We often look to Japan, the nation that brought us simple-living experts such as Marie Kondo, as the pioneer of modern minimalism. But what if Japanese people’s lives are actually much more messy and cluttered than we think?
In this brilliant long read, Matt Alt suggests that the west’s fascination with Japan’s apparent sparsity is a product of “our own changing desires and the realisation that possessing more things doesn’t necessarily translate into more happiness”.
Kyoichi Tsuzuki’s photographs capturing wall-to-wall clutter in 90s Tokyo show Japan’s complex, nuanced and beautiful relationship with material objects.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until Monday.
