Good morning. Exactly one year after Russia invaded Ukraine, the conflict has recast international diplomacy – and that diplomacy has, in turn, helped shape the war on the ground.
On the one hand, it might have been difficult to imagine this time last year that western and Nato governments would remain so resolute in opposition to Moscow. And yet the war has also reiterated more familiar patterns: the patchiness of sanctions, suspicion of US intentions among countries in the global south, and China’s determination to assert itself in a newly multipolar world.
In the last week, Ukraine’s allies have sought to leverage the anniversary to exert further pressure on Russia – but they haven’t had it all their own way. While an overwhelming majority at the United Nations general assembly last night repeated a demand for Russia to withdraw its troops, a Chinese diplomatic visit to Moscow – and warnings that Beijing might be considering sending Vladimir Putin lethal aid for use on the battlefield – have underlined how much is still in play.
To mark the anniversary, Volodymyr Zelenskiy this morning said that after “a year of pain, sorrow, faith and unity”, the next would be “the year of our victory”. But with more Russian attacks expected today and no obvious end yet in sight, today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, is a guide to an ever-changing geopolitical picture. Here are the headlines – and below the main newsletter, you’ll find links to some of the Guardian’s reporting on the consequences of a year of war.
Five big stories
Cryptocurrency | A cryptocurrency investment firm with links to two UK all-party parliamentary groups (APPGs) appears to have disappeared, leaving some investors fearing they have lost tens of thousands of pounds and raising the prospect of further questions being asked about the role of APPGs in parliament.
Brexit | Boris Johnson has hinted he may not support a proposed deal over the Northern Ireland protocol from Rishi Sunak, heaping pressure on the prime minister to revive a controversial bill that would unilaterally override parts of the Brexit treaty.
US news | Harvey Weinstein was sentenced to 16 additional years in prison on Thursday, three months after being convicted of rape and sexual assault in Los Angeles. The disgraced film producer is already serving a 23-year sentence for previous convictions of rape and sexual assault.
Northern Ireland | Police have arrested three men in connection with the shooting of Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell in an ambush at a sports complex in Omagh on Wednesday night. Caldwell, who has led high-profile investigations into paramilitaries and other criminals, is in a critical but stable condition.
Food | The UK environment secretary, Thérèse Coffey, has caused a furore after she suggested people should “cherish” seasonal foods such as turnips as bad weather cleared supermarket shelves of tomatoes and other fresh produce.
In depth: ‘The signs of fissure that we might have expected haven’t really materialised’
On one level, a vote at the UN general assembly to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like a diplomatic victory for Kyiv: lining up 141 votes in favour, 32 in abstention and only seven against was presented by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell as evidence “that the international community stands with Ukraine”.
And yet that account overlooks some serious fractures in global opinion. Only 33 of those 141 countries have imposed any kind of sanction so far, and many capitals are just as sceptical of Joe Biden’s motives as the Russian president’s. While western governments appear united in support of Kyiv for the long haul, many capitals in the global south are above all “eager to bring the war to a speedy end”, Patrick Wintour wrote yesterday.
Here’s a summary of some of the key diplomatic dynamics.
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China: a vital lifeline for Russia, with limits
There have been two key visible developments this week that shed light on China’s current view of its sometime ally: first the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said that Beijing was “considering providing lethal support” to Moscow, a warning underscored yesterday by the treasury secretary, Janet Yellen. Meanwhile, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, met with Vladimir Putin and the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow, and said that “a crisis is always an opportunity” and that the relationship was “never dictated by any third parties”.
While China has always claimed to be neutral – it abstained at the UN and published a position paper calling for peace talks on Friday that was dismissed as anodyne by analysts - it has also expanded economic cooperation and views sanctions as an unwelcome precedent for any future invasion of Taiwan.
The provision of lethal aid would be a huge escalation – in the words of the US ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, a “red line” – but it also appears unlikely at least for now, Patrick said. “They already have Russia over a barrel – they don’t need to go further and provide arms [to increase their influence]. If they did that, you would be quite close to a proxy world war, and that doesn’t appear to be what China wants.”
Nonetheless, China’s trading relationship with Russia remains a vital lifeline. Between March and September 2022, trade between the two countries was worth about $99bn, according to a report by the Free Russia Foundation (£) – an increase of $27bn on the year before.
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Neighbours and former Soviet states: a way for Moscow to dodge sanctions?
While western sanctions have had a real impact on the Russian economy, they are a deeply imperfect tool, as Patrick detailed in this piece on Monday. It appears that one way that Russia has been able to blunt their impact is through ramping up trade with countries that have themselves increased imports from the EU: neighbouring countries including Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Belarus have all followed this pattern, as have Turkey and a number of others.
“We see a massive fall-off in trade flows from the EU to Russia and unusual spikes in trade with other third countries, particularly with those in close vicinity to Russia,” EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan told the Financial Times (£). “Have they suddenly developed a lot of new needs for this material, and it’s all staying there, or is some of it leaking into Russia in one form or another?”
There are ways to respond to that pattern, but Nato and EU countries have not yet deployed them. “So far, the US has not reached for the blunderbuss of secondary sanctions – sanctioning anyone involved in trade with Russia,” said Patrick. “This kind of trade is a moving target all the time, and very difficult to control.”
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The ‘global south’: a diverse group, but mostly sceptical of western motives
“Global south” is a “rather overused phrase”, Patrick said. It refers to such a varied group of countries – from India’s 1.4 billion people to African states with populations in the low millions – that any attempt to view them as uniform is bound to fall short. Still, it is clear that most of these countries are sceptical of joining western support of Ukraine (£), and see the war as a proxy conflict between world powers with an eye on the US’s history of military interventions and European imperialism as context rather than a necessary moral crusade.
Most of the countries that abstained from yesterday’s vote fall in this group, but many did support the resolution. “The west has been quite successful at phrasing the resolutions with a focus on territorial integrity and sovereignty to maximise the support they can garner,” Patrick said. And suspicion of Nato is not the same thing as support for Moscow – Russia could only command seven votes against the resolution: its own, Belarus, North Korea, Syria, Mali, Eritrea, and Nicaragua. “You can’t plausibly claim to be providing global leadership when you’re that isolated, so it does matter.”
Some of these smaller countries are “highly reliant on China, which makes them wary of going further in support of Ukraine”, Patrick said. “The larger ones, like India or Pakistan, have more freedom of manoeuvre because of the size of their economies, but China still matters to them.”
The west has largely failed to win these countries over. Today, South Africa will continue naval exercises with Russia and China in the Indian Ocean, a decision whose symbolism on the anniversary of the start of the conflict has angered western diplomats. The Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov, which has a “Z” painted on its smokestack (pictured above), has been docked in the South African port of Durban this week.
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Ukraine’s allies: settling in for the long haul
The recent debate between allies over whether or not to provide Ukraine with tanks – which ended with a deal to send US and German-made armour and train Ukrainian soldiers to use it – is a decent miniature of the larger pattern in the west since the war began: serious disputes over the right approach, but agreement in the end.
This week, Patrick said, Joe Biden’s trip to Ukraine and the Munich security conference have reinforced that narrative. “The thing I drew from Munich, and then the Biden visit, is the degree to which the west has remained united in the face of the likelihood of a long war. The signs of fissure that we might have expected, with France and Germany as reluctant warriors in opposition to the Baltic nations, haven’t really materialised. I don’t think there’s an influential ‘peace party’ operating in Europe.”
Today, talks on a new round of sanctions will continue after a planned deadline was missed. “It will fill in some obvious gaps,” said Patrick. “But it will be relatively modest, partly because you need a unanimous vote in the EU, and Hungary [which has consistently slowed sanctions and whose prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has remained sympathetic to Putin] is not prepared to go further.” If that is less than the unequivocal backing that Kyiv continues to demand, it is still much more than many observers would have expected a year ago.
Read more on a year of war in Ukraine
Mariupol: the ruin of a city | An extraordinary document of the devastation, partial reconstruction, and Russification of a thriving city - a process that Vladimir Putin’s army has sought to erase along with any sign of Ukrainian rule. “You learn to only voice your opinions with those you know you can trust,” says Darya, a student opposed to the occupation. “Otherwise, you keep your thoughts to yourself.”
The life and death of Denys Tkach | Daniel Boffey tells the story of the 36-year-old staff sergeant who was the first Ukrainian soldier to die during the invasion.
Russia: muted protest and little sympathy for Ukraine | Andrew Roth reports from Moscow on a backlash among the families of soldiers who believe they have been mistreated - but also “a clear tug-of-war over messaging: while criticism of the military is rife, there is less open opposition to the war and almost no sympathy for Ukrainian suffering”.
Mapping the conflict: how the front lines have shifted | Pablo Gutiérrez and Ashley Kirk show how periods of rapid change have given way to stalemate - and how costly Russian gains have been.
A year of war reporting | Guardian correspondents reflect on some of the memories that have stayed with them. “The moments that most stand out for me are those of personal connection with Ukrainians,” writes Dan Sabbagh. “Nothing matters more than stories of ordinary people caught up in this pointless war.”
What else we’ve been reading
An upscale New York restaurant, where main courses can cost up to $66, is the latest site of unionising efforts taking place across the US. Frida Garza spoke to the workers who are pushing ahead to secure better pay and conditions, and the fierce pushback they have been experiencing. Nimo
One notable feature of the grotesque circus surrounding the death of Nicola Bulley was the presence of diving expert Peter Faulding, who said firmly that she was not in the river. In fact, she was. Robyn Vinter and Emine Sinmaz have a superb piece examining his role and expertise. Archie
Stuart Heritage ranks the 20 best time travel movies - which are, of course, therefore also the best movies in general. I assume Edge of Tomorrow has been excluded on a technicality and am dismayed, but you can’t argue with No 1. Archie
Huw Lemmey’s introduction to Love, Leda, Mark Hyatt’s only novel, is a wonderful tribute to a book that tells the tale of 1960s working-class gay life. Lemmey describes the book, written in the years before decriminalisation, as “a singular work” that “transforms gay sex and love from an abject taboo to a deeply human intimacy.” Nimo
Sophie Gilbert writes compellingly in the Atlantic (£) about the lovelessness of contemporary pop culture and the death of the sex scene. “We need more explorations of love, sex, and desire in art—because they’re fundamental elements of what it means to be human, to understand intimacy, to accept vulnerability, to be put at risk,” she writes. Nimo
Sport
Football | Legendary commentator John Motson has died at the age of 77. Motson, perhaps the most recognisable voice in English football, had an illustrious 50-year career with the BBC and commentated on more than 2,500 games. Here are some of his best moments.
Cricket | An astonishing 184 not out from Harry Brook and a classy century from Joe Root propelled England from 21-3 to a commanding position of 315 for the loss of no further wickets on day one of the second test against New Zealand. Ali Martin writes that while England have “kissed a good few frogs over the years … in Harry Brook they have found a new middle order prince”.
Europa League | Manchester United beat Barcelona 2-1 at Old Trafford, leaving them with a 4-3 aggregate victory in the playoff for the last 16 of the Europa League. Jamie Jackson writes that after a “first-half horror show” that left them 1-0 down, United “turned frustration to joy” through goals from Antony and Fred. Meanwhile, Shakhtar Donetsk pulled off a stunning penalty shootout win against Rennes and hailed the result as “victory for Ukraine”.
The front pages
“‘Mariupol: The ruin of a city”: special coverage of the Ukraine war anniversary starts on page one of the Guardian today. The downpage lead is “‘Vanished’ crypto firm sparks lobbying fears”. The Times calls it “Ukraine’s year of blood” while the Metro says that “Heroes never give in” and the Daily Telegraph carries Justin’ Welby’s view: “Russia must not be crushed in any Ukraine peace deal, says archbishop”.
The war makes a front-page picture in the Financial Times, while its lead story is “Wall Street veteran picked to steer World Bank towards climate focus”. Ukrainian flags planted in memory of the fallen are shown on the front of the Daily Mirror, where the splash is “Tory’s bizarre shortages tip – Let them eat turnips”. “Camilla swipe at Dahl censorship” – that’s the Daily Mail, while the Daily Express has “Queen’s ‘dismay’ at cuts to Dahl books”. “Sheepskin G.O.A.T” – the Sun memorialises John “Motty” Motson, the “voice of football”. The top story in the i is “Sunak softens on NHS pay talks in bid to end strikes”.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
Fleishman Is in Trouble (Disney+)
Adapted by Taffy Brodesser-Akner from her 2019 novel, Fleishman Is in Trouble is the story of Toby Fleishman’s (Jesse Eisenberg) divorce from his beloved but increasingly ambitious and difficult wife Rachel (Claire Danes) after 15 years of marriage and two children. Toby wakes one morning to discover Rachel has become unreachable by phone, email or anything else. As we gather hints and clues and wait for the mystery of her disappearance to be resolved, Brodesser-Akner anatomises – with endless wit – just about every possible modern malaise. Lucy Mangan
Music
Gorillaz – Cracker Island
Damon Albarn seems to have fixed the problem that has dogged Gorillaz albums in the past – an overabundance of collaborators. Cracker Island doesn’t skimp on the big-name cameos – Bad Bunny, Tame Impala and Stevie Nicks all feature here – but it clocks in at a trim 10 tracks and 37 minutes. Moreover, it feels musically unified. Divorced from cartoon alter egos, big concepts and Albarn’s apparently limitless power to persuade big stars to do his bidding, it reveals itself as that most prosaic of things: a fantastic pop album. Alexis Petridis
Film
Joyland
The right way to feel love, and the right way to feel part of a family, are the difficulties at the heart of this mysterious, sad and tender movie from Pakistan, directed by the first-time film-maker Saim Sadiq. An elderly widower presides over a large clan in a cramped apartment (above), near an amusement park called Joyland. One of his sons gets a job at a local erotic dance theatre as a backing dancer for the show’s transgender star, with whom he falls deeply in love. A delicate, intelligent and emotionally rich film. Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
The Coldest Case in Laramie
In the latest from Serial, investigative reporter Kim Barker revisits the long cold case of Shelli Wiley who was murdered in her apartment in the town of Laramie, Wyoming. It’s a place that Barker describes, in her deadpan delivery, as “uncommonly mean”, where even the wind throws pebbles at you – and it’s the town Barker grew up in herself. Nell Frizzell
Today in Focus
Searching for the first casualty of the war in Ukraine
Daniel Boffey reports on the life and death of staff sergeant Denys Tkach, the first soldier to have been killed by Russian forces on the day of the invasion
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
David Bowie’s death in 2016 closed a decades-long career that spanned many artistic disciplines. Now, the public will be given permanent access to the musician and cultural pioneer’s physical legacy, following a donation of Bowie’s extensive archive to the V&A.
The cache of more than 80,000 items – including handwritten lyrics, instruments, costumes, set designs, letters and album artwork – covers more than six decades and will be held at a special centre currently under construction in Stratford, east London. Among the items in the archive are notebooks and unrealised projects from every era of Bowie’s life and career, most of which have not been seen in public.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.
